Friday, May 9, 2008

Shop for Property/Casualty Insurance Savings NOW! Then Short Their Stocks With the Savings

I don't have time to go into a lot of detail right now, maybe next week. The current overcapacity in P&C, which has led to a bit of a price war, will be ending soon, maybe three to six weeks.
A back of the envelope calculation says insurers would be mis-pricing weather risk vs. "average" conditions.

The recent flip of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to it's cold phase will, if past history repeats, lead to higher insured losses in everything from hail damage to landfalling hurricanes.

I really should develop this further, unfortunately there is time enough to do anything, not enough to do everything.