Time to squeeze harder.
First up, from Iran International, April 13:
What the US naval blockade would mean for Iran’s economy
The US naval blockade of Iran, which started on Monday, could rapidly cripple the country’s economy, cutting off most of its trade, halting oil exports and triggering inflation and currency pressure within days.
The blockade, targeting Iranian ports and imposing partial restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, took effect at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
Iran’s heavy reliance on southern shipping lanes leaves its economy exposed to maritime disruption, with more than 90% of its $109.7 billion annual trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The blockade is expected to cut off nearly all of Iran’s seaborne trade, wiping out an estimated $435 million in daily economic activity and forcing oil field shutdowns within weeks.
A blockade would effectively zero out Iran’s export revenues within days and trigger cascading effects across its financial system.
Oil exports would be hit first
Crude oil shipments would be the first and most severe casualty. Iran has been exporting roughly 1.5 million barrels per day, generating about $139 million daily based on wartime pricing assumptions.
Nearly all of that volume departs via Kharg Island, which handles over 90% of crude exports and lacks viable alternative routes outside the Persian Gulf.
A blockade would eliminate these flows almost immediately, cutting off the Islamic Republic’s primary source of foreign currency earnings.
Petrochemicals and non-oil trade
Petrochemical exports, valued at roughly $54 million per day based on recent trade data, would also be halted. Facilities at Assaluyeh, Imam Khomeini, and Shahid Rajaei ports all sit within the Persian Gulf and depend on uninterrupted maritime access.
Non-oil exports – including minerals and metals – would see similar disruption. Of approximately $88 million in daily shipments, around 90% would be blocked, removing another $79 million a day in revenue....
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And the headliner, also April 13:
Iran’s central bank warns economy may take 12 years to rebuild after war
Iran’s central bank has warned President Masoud Pezeshkian that rebuilding the country’s war-damaged economy could take more than a decade, sources familiar with internal deliberations told Iran International.
In a stark assessment delivered to the president in recent days, senior economic officials said the damage inflicted during the 40-day war with the United States and Israel—combined with Iran’s already fragile economic situation—could take up to 12 years to repair.
Several major airports were damaged during the conflict, while strikes also targeted oil facilities, refineries and petrochemical installations that are central to Iran’s export revenues and industrial supply chains.
Officials involved in the discussions warned that the destruction of production capacity could trigger a sharp surge in inflation in the coming months. According to the assessment presented to the president, inflation could reach as high as 180% if shortages of industrial inputs persist.
The same projections estimate that unemployment could rise by around two million people as factories, service providers and small businesses struggle to resume operations....
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