Thursday, April 16, 2026

"In the film Mad Max, an oil shortage leaves Australian society teetering on the brink of total collapse."

From The Telegraph, April 14:

Australia’s petrol stations run dry as energy crisis turns existential
Soaring prices and supply fears leave farmers weighing up whether they can afford to plant crops  

In the film Mad Max, an oil shortage leaves Australian society teetering on the brink of total collapse.

In real-life, things aren’t quite that dystopian yet Down Under. But with barely a month of stockpiled diesel left and hundreds of forecourts running dry, the anxiety is palpable.

Australia has one of the highest per-capita rates of diesel consumption in the world but it relies almost entirely on imports to meet that demand. There are two domestic refineries producing petrol but up to 90pc of that is imported, too.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stifled one fifth of the world’s supply of oil. Much of this goes to the Asian refineries that supply Australia. Now, they’re running short.

So the problem in Australia isn’t just the soaring price of fuel. It’s the prospect of not being able to get any at all.

The country has 38 days’ worth of petrol left in reserve before reaching critical levels, at which point rationing would need to kick in. For diesel, it’s 31 days and for jet fuel, just 28.

For truckers and farmers in particular, the supply crunch feels near-existential.

“Growers are right now weighing up whether they can afford to buy seed, fuel the tractor and sow their crop,” says Hamish McIntyre, the president of the National Farmers Federation.

In a country that is the fifth-largest producer of wheat and second-largest grower of barley, McIntyre warns that “most farmers will need to decide before Anzac Day [April 25] whether they will plant a crop this year”.

Mathew Munro, the chief executive of the Australian Trucking Association, sounds equally alarmed. He recently described the situation for the country’s 60,000 trucking businesses as “an emergency”.

“Trucking businesses… are running out of time,” he said. “They are running out of money. They can’t see a way forward.”

For three decades, Australia has consistently been one of the rich world’s most robust economies, but its unique combination of high fuel consumption and import dependence has shaken the country’s self-belief.

Earlier this month, the ANZ-Roy Morgan index of consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since the survey began in 1972.

Australians may not have taken to the streets over fuel prices, as the Irish have done, but the crisis taps into a deep-rooted sense of vulnerability.

Begging bowl in Asia
In the early years of white settlement, the isolated colonists would scan the horizon for the lifeline of arriving supply ships. Two centuries later, newspapers have started listing the names and arrival dates of incoming petrol and diesel tankers.

But Anthony Albanese, the Australian prime minister, isn’t standing on the shoreline with his binoculars.

His Labor Party is vulnerable to the resurgence of Pauline Hanson, a Right-wing populist firebrand, and her One Nation party.

So on Friday, he jumped on a plane to Singapore.

The Asian city-state is the world’s third-largest refining hub behind Houston in the US and Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Australia gets 55pc of its petrol and 15pc of its diesel from there. Australia’s other major suppliers are South Korea, India, Malaysia and Taiwan.

Albanese signed what he called a “win-win” statement on energy trade with Lawrence Wong, the Singaporean prime minister. They vowed to keep fuel flowing south and Australian liquefied natural gas heading north.

Ominously, Wong did remind his guest that Singaporean exports could only be forthcoming “as long as upstream supplies continue”.

Singaporean refiners get about 70pc of their crude from the Middle East. They’re now looking to the US, Africa and even Russia. But they’re running low and they are competing with crude buyers from all over the world. This will only get worse if the Hormuz disruption lingers on....

....MUCH MORE 

So, not yet critical and the impact of the fire should be contained. BBC April 17:

Major refinery fire won't lead to fuel rationing, Australian PM says 

But things must be dicey if the government is this concerned:  

Previously (March 19)

As Fuel Runs Out: "Australia stops in three weeks"

So Hallelujah, we're already a week past that estimate, 

Posted by at