"Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving" (TSLA)

Elon and chips go way back. 

From Teslarati, November 5: 

Elon Musk revealed new information on Tesla’s AI5, previously known as Hardware 5, chip, for self-driving, which will be manufactured by both Samsung and TSMC.

The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, Optimus humanoid robots, and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other applications. It will be the successor to the current AI4, previously known as Hardware 4, which is currently utilized in Tesla’s newest vehicles. 

AI5 is specially optimized for Tesla use, as it will work alongside the company’s Neural Networks to focus on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation. It was first teased by Tesla in mid-2024 as Musk called it “an amazing design” and “an immense jump” from the current AI4 chip.

It will be roughly 4o times faster, have 8 times the raw compute, 9 times the memory capacity, 5 times the memory bandwidth, and 3 times the efficiency per watt.

It will be manufactured by both TSMC and Samsung at their Arizona and Texas fab locations, respectively.

Here’s what Musk revealed about the chip yesterday:

Different Versions 
Samsung and TSMC will make slightly different versions of the AI5 chip, “simply because they translate designs to physical form differently.” However, Musk said the goal is that its AI software would work identically.

This was a real concern for some who are familiar with chip manufacturing, as Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga seemed to be echoing through Tesla.

Back in 2015, it was found that Apple’s A9 chips had different performances based on who manufactured them. TSMC and Samsung were both building the chips, but it was found that Samsung’s chips had shorter battery life than TSMC-fabricated versions....

....MUCH MORE 

Related, from CNBC November 6 (after the annual meeting):

Elon Musk says Tesla needs to build ‘gigantic chip fab’ to meet AI and robotics needs  

• Musk said Tesla would probably need to build a “gigantic” chip fab in order to meet the volume of chips that the company is looking for.
• Tesla depends on TSMC and Samsung, but still faces shortages despite expanding supplier output.
• Tesla’s growing chip needs come as it leans into AI and robotics — industries Musk sees as the future of the global economy....

....MUCH MORE 

Speaking of the shareholders meeting (replay):

Here is the link to Tesla's 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting:https://t.co/29dN4gkMWY

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 6, 2025

Regarding Mr. Musk and chips, some previous posts (there are hundreds):

Nvidia Wants to Be the Brains Of Your Autonomous Car (NVDA)

NVIDIA Partner Tesla Reportedly Developing Chip With AMD (TSLA; NVDA; AMD)

"Tesla says it’s dumping Nvidia chips for a homebrew alternative" (TSLA)
The only reason for Tesla to do this is that NVIDIA's chips are general purpose whereas specialized chips are making inroads in stuff like crypto mining (ASICs), Google's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for machine learning and Facebook's hardware efforts.

"Nvidia CEO is 'more than happy to help' if Tesla's A.I. chip doesn't pan out" (NVDA; TSLA) 

CORRECTED—Earnings - Tesla Reports, Stock Slides, Elon's Buying A Supercomputer (TSLA)

correction: At this level of performance one does not simply buy a supercomputer, one builds a supercomputer.

Elon Got Himself A Supercomputer: "Tesla's $300 Million AI Cluster Is Going Live Today" (TSLA)

And one of my favorite vignettes:

From October 5, 2024's "AI versus the climate as data center emissions soar":

...The AI business has a lot of money, OpenAI just raised $6 billion at a $157 billion valuation, or my favorite recent example, the three centi-billionaires Jensen Huang (NVDA), Elon Musk (TSLA+++) and Larry Ellison (ORCL) having dinner at Nobu, Palo Alto, combined net worth at the table $550 billion, with Musk and Ellison begging Huang to get them more chips:

“Please take our money. By the way, I got dinner. No, no, take more of it.
We need you to take more of our money please.”
—Ellison on the table-talk

Earlier:

January 2021 - "Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison scores $12 billion gain on his Tesla stock in under 3 years" (ORCL; TSLA)

Earlier still:

December 2018  - Oracle's Larry Ellison To Join Tesla's Board (TSLA)

U.N. FAO Food Price Index: "eased further in October, with all indices but vegetable oils down"

 From the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, November 5:

» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 126.4 points in October 2025, down 2.1 points (1.6 percent) from the revised September level of 128.5 points, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. Lower price indices for cereals, dairy products, meat and sugar outweighed an increase in the vegetable oil index. Overall, the FFPI was slightly below its October 2024 level and remained 33.8 points (21.1 percent) lower than its peak in March 2022.

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 103.6 points in October, down 1.3 points (1.3 percent) from September and 10.9 points (9.5 percent) below its level a year ago. Price indices of all the major cereals declined month-on-month. The wheat price index fell by 1.0 percent, mostly reflecting ample global supplies, favourable production prospects in the southern hemisphere where harvesting is underway, and steady progress of winter wheat planting across the northern hemisphere. The coarse grain index declined by 1.1 percent in October, with lower quotations for barley, maize and sorghum. Downward pressure on prices was partly offset by reports of reduced maize yields in the European Union and potentially also in the United States of America, as well as news of trade agreements between China and the United States of America. The FAO All Rice Price Index fell by 2.5 percent in October 2025, driven by intensified competition for markets and the start of main-crop harvests in several northern hemisphere exporting countries.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 169.4 points in October, up 1.5 points (0.9 percent) from September and reaching its highest level since July 2022. The increase reflected higher quotations for palm, rapeseed, soy and sunflower oils. International palm oil prices rebounded slightly after easing in the previous month, supported by expectations of tighter exportable supplies following Indonesia’s planned increase in biodiesel blending mandates in 2026, and despite higher-than-expected production in Malaysia. World sunflower oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in October, largely due to limited supplies from the Black Sea region amid harvest delays and cautious farmer sales. Meanwhile, global rapeseed and soy oil prices increased on account, respectively, of persistent tight supplies in the European Union and higher domestic demand in Brazil and the United States of America.

» The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 125.0 points in October, down 2.5 points (2.0 percent) from September but still 5.8 points (4.8 percent) above its level a year ago. After eight consecutive monthly increases, the decline was driven by sharp drops in pig and poultry meat prices and a fall in ovine meat prices, partially offset by higher bovine meat quotations. The pig meat price index declined amid abundant global supplies, with European Union’s export quotations coming under additional downward pressure due to weaker import demand from China following the introduction of new import duties. The poultry meat price index also contracted significantly, reflecting lower export prices from Brazil, where high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI)-related trade restrictions by China prompted exporters to redirect sales to lower-priced destinations. The ovine meat price index decreased, particularly in Australia, as larger supplies entered the market. By contrast, the bovine meat price index continued to rise, driven by higher quotations from Australia due to firm global demand.

» The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 142.2 points in October 2025, down 5.0 points (3.4 percent) from September, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Despite this decline, the index remained 2.7 percent above its level a year earlier. All sub-indices dropped – butter fell by 6.5 percent, whole milk powder by 6.0 percent, skim milk powder by 4.0 percent, and cheese by 1.5 percent. The continued decline in the butter price index largely reflected ample export availabilities from European Union and New Zealand, as moderate seasonal temperatures boosted milk production amid weaker import demand from Asia and the Middle East. Milk powder quotations also fell due to limited demand and strong export competition. The cheese price index declined only slightly, as modest easing in the European Union—where milk supplies remain adequate and export demand subdued—was partly offset by firmer prices in Oceania, supported by solid Asian orders and tighter early-season supplies....

....MUCH MORE 

The index looks to be ready to give up all the increases over the last twelve months.

Related in the USA, the cattle are lowing (see what I did there?):

October 27 - Beef Prices Are Falling

Although not yet apparent at retail, the declines are in the pipeline:

TradingView - Live Cattle, 6 months 

 

TradingView - Feeder Cattle, 6 months

 

It might have something to do with Argentine gauchos sending their best northward as the U.S. cattle barons restock their herds. 

The downward trend has continued over the last ten days.

"Quantum Leap: Lockheed Martin & PsiQuantum"

From Lockheed Martin, November 3:

Lockheed Martin and PsiQuantum have formed a strategic collaboration to advance quantum computing research and application for aerospace and defense. This agreement represents a major advance in the essential effort to determine how quantum computing can be applied to the complex challenges of national security and diverse aerospace technologies, and in the creation of utility scale quantum hardware with fault tolerant architectures capable of delivering reliable results for mission critical workloads. 

Why Quantum Applications? 
Today's most powerful super‑computers may struggle to model the ultra‑complex chemistry, fluid dynamics, and material behavior that drive modern aircraft, missiles and space systems. Those simulations demand more computing power than can be delivered efficiently with classical hardware alone. Quantum computing has the potential to overcome these bottlenecks, but a fault tolerant approach is needed for quantum computers to deliver on this promise.

Developing and testing these capabilities today positions our customers to deploy proven, mission‑ready quantum tools as soon as the technology matures, providing a decisive edge in performance, development timelines and national‑security outcomes....

....MUCH MORE 

Have I mentioned fluid dynamics? Why yes, yes I have. (if interested see also: turbulence) 

And from PsiQuantum, also November 3: 

PsiQuantum and Lockheed Martin Form Strategic Collaboration to Accelerate Quantum Computing for Aerospace and Defense  

PALO ALTO, Calif. – PsiQuantum and Lockheed Martin have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to accelerate the development of quantum computing applications in aerospace and defense. Building on years of strategic collaboration, this joint effort marks a significant step forward in the critical work to address how quantum computing can be deployed against complex challenges in national security and a range of aerospace technologies. 

Through this agreement, PsiQuantum and Lockheed Martin will explore projects to develop quantum algorithms in support of real-world aerospace and defense applications for the U.S. government and allies. This includes supporting PsiQuantum’s development and deployment of the world’s first utility-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers, as well as leveraging PsiQuantum’s software suite, Construct—a secure, end-to-end platform for designing, analyzing, and optimizing algorithms for fault-tolerant quantum computing—as a key tool for collaboration. 

“This strategic collaboration brings together PsiQuantum’s expertise in quantum applications and deployment with Lockheed Martin’s capabilities, expertise, and global leadership in aerospace and defense—and it takes our two companies’ years-long relationship to the next level,” said Mark Brunner, Executive Vice President for PsiQuantum’s U.S. Public Sector team. “Real, useful quantum computing will begin transforming the aerospace industry in a few short years, and now is the time for companies to prepare to seize the fullest potential of this technology.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously:

September 11, 2025 - A Name To Know: "PsiQuantum Raises $1 Billion, Says Its Computer Will Be Ready in Two Years"

PsiQuantum is different. March 24 -  "Quantum computing startup PsiQuantum raising at least $750 million, sources say" 

"China Offers Cheaper Power to Local AI Firms Ditching NVIDIA Chips"

From Analytics India Magazine, November 6:

The move follows complaints from Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent, which have faced higher costs after Beijing restricted access to NVIDIA chips.  

China has introduced new subsidies that halve energy bills for primary data centres using domestic chips, aiming to strengthen its semiconductor industry and reduce reliance on US technology, the Financial Times reported, citing sources. 

Local governments in provinces such as Gansu, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia are offering discounts of up to 50% on electricity for facilities that adopt chips made by Chinese firms, including Huawei and Cambricon Technologies.

The move follows complaints from tech giants like Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent, which have faced higher costs after Beijing restricted access to NVIDIA’s AI chips. The new policy aims to offset the increased electricity consumption of Chinese-made semiconductors, which are less energy-efficient than those made by NVIDIA, according to reports.

The three companies have not yet responded to AIM’s queries.

Local authorities have been competing to attract large-scale data projects by combining power subsidies with cash grants. Some incentives can cover a data centre’s operating costs for about a year. 

Industrial electricity prices in these western provinces are already approximately 30% lower than those in coastal China, and the subsidies will further reduce them to around RMB 0.4, or 5.6 US cents, per kilowatt-hour.

By comparison, the average industrial electricity cost in the US is roughly 9.1 cents per kWh, according to the US Energy Information Administration....

....MORE 

Analytics India Magazine home 

"Why this critical Google business may be seriously underestimated on Wall Street" (GOOG)

From MarketWatch, November 5: 

Wall Street sees Google Cloud growing at 31% in 2026 — but one analyst is modeling a path to 50%

Alphabet Inc.’s cloud-computing business might be the smallest out of the major hyperscalers, but it’s on track to narrow the gap faster than expected, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak.

Among the “Big Three” cloud-computing providers, Google Cloud Platform trails Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Microsoft Corp.’s 

Azure in market share. Yet artificial intelligence could shake up the rankings as Google wins big deals, such as its recent cloud partnership that provides Anthropic with access to its custom tensor processing units.

While Nowak’s base case anticipates Google Cloud revenues growing around 44%, he wrote in a Wednesday note that the business could potentially achieve over 50% growth in 2026 if more large-scale cloud deals are signed. That’s significantly higher than the Wall Street consensus, which according to FactSet is only anticipating 31% cloud growth next year.

While the bull case may seem extreme, the Morgan Stanley analyst believes it’s a very achievable goal based on his Google Cloud revenue forecast. He breaks the segment’s revenues down into cloud backlog, referring to the unrecognized revenue from long-term contracts, and on-demand, or the pay-as-you-go business.

Nowak estimates that Google Cloud will add $106 billion in net backlog and grow its on-demand business at a 25% rate for 2025. Google Cloud would only need to add $50 billion in net backlog and achieve 15% growth in its on-demand business to grow at 50% in 2026. Or, if the on-demand business continues to grow at 25%, just a $20 billion increase in net backlog could result in over 50% cloud growth....

....MUCH MORE 

And at VentureBeat, November 6:

Google debuts AI chips with 4X performance boost, secures Anthropic megadeal worth billions 

Google Cloud is introducing what it calls its most powerful artificial intelligence infrastructure to date, unveiling a seventh-generation Tensor Processing Unit and expanded Arm-based computing options designed to meet surging demand for AI model deployment — what the company characterizes as a fundamental industry shift from training models to serving them to billions of users.

The announcement, made Thursday, centers on Ironwood, Google's latest custom AI accelerator chip, which will become generally available in the coming weeks. In a striking validation of the technology, Anthropic, the AI safety company behind the Claude family of models, disclosed plans to access up to one million of these TPU chips — a commitment worth tens of billions of dollars and among the largest known AI infrastructure deals to date.

The move underscores an intensifying competition among cloud providers to control the infrastructure layer powering artificial intelligence, even as questions mount about whether the industry can sustain its current pace of capital expenditure. Google's approach — building custom silicon rather than relying solely on Nvidia's dominant GPU chips — amounts to a long-term bet that vertical integration from chip design through software will deliver superior economics and performance....

"Senate bill would require companies to report AI layoffs as job cuts reach 20-year high in October"

From The Register, November 6:

Government agencies would also have to report losses due to automation 

ai-pocalypse A bipartisan pair of US Senators has introduced a bill that would require companies and government agencies to report AI-related layoffs, and it couldn't come at a better time. October jobs data suggests AI is driving the largest wave of layoffs headed into the end of the year that we've seen since 2003. 

Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Mark Warner (D-VA) on Wednesday announced plans to introduce the AI-Related Job Impacts Clarity Act. If passed, the law requires public companies and pretty much every single federal government agency to hand quarterly layoff data over to the Department of Labor, indicating how many jobs they cut due to automation. 

The act would also require employers to report on a quarterly basis how many people they hired related to AI and automation, how many jobs they decided not to fill thanks to AI, and numbers on retraining due to artificial intelligence. The end goal, said Warner, is to help Congress understand how the labor market is changing and how to prepare for the future....

....MUCH MORE 

At Least The Fed's Standing Repo Facility Worked

Now, if the Fed could do something about the job market. (but I don't think they can)

From Wolf Street, November 4:

Repo Market Liquidity Pressures Made Worse by Government Shutdown, but the Fed’s SRF Did its Job and Went Back to Sleep

After the debt ceiling, the shutdown: government checking account (TGA) sucks up $700 billion in four months. 

The uptake at the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) plunged to $4.8 billion today: $2.8 billion at the morning auction and $2.0 billion at the afternoon auction. The approved counterparties at the SRF are big banks and broker-dealers.

This was down from $22.0 billion on Monday, and from $50.4 billion on Friday, which had been a record of this new facility that the Fed revived in July 2021.

These repos (“overnight repurchase agreements”) will mature on Wednesday, when the Fed gets its $4.8 billion back and the banks get their collateral back. The collateral is Treasury securities and government-guaranteed “agency MBS.” The $50 billion in repos taken on Friday matured on Monday, when the Fed got its $50 billion back and the banks got their collateral back. So that liquidity that these repos provided on Friday got reversed on Monday. Then on Monday, $22 billion in new repos were taken, and that liquidity was reversed today. And today’s $4.8 billion in liquidity will be reversed tomorrow. The total balance outstanding at the SRF is now $4.8 billion.

The purpose of the SRF is to provide liquidity to banks and dealers so that they can lend to the repo market. This is a profitable trade when repo market rates are significantly higher than the Fed’s rate at the SRF (currently 4.0%). And repo market rates have been higher in recent weeks.

Repo rates. The Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR), which tracks a $3-trillion-a-day segment of the repo market, declined to 4.13% on Monday, from 4.22% on Friday (the NY Fed will release today’s rate tomorrow)....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously:

Federal Reserve Repo Operations: It's Probably Nothing

OpenAI Isn’t Yet Working Toward an IPO, Would Prefer $600 Billion Government Backstop

Wouldn't we all.

From the Wall Street Journal, November 5:

Sarah Friar says the AI giant could reach break-even quickly and would like government backstop on data-center investments 

OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said that an IPO is “not on the cards” in the near term, and said the company hopes the federal government might backstop the financing of future data-center deals. 

Speaking at The Wall Street Journal’s Tech Live conference, Friar threw a dose of cold water on what could become one of the largest public listings in history. She said the AI giant’s conversion to a new structure doesn’t portend an imminent public offering as the company prioritizes growth and R&D over profitability.

“IPO is not on the cards right now,” Friar said. “We are continuing to get the company into a state of constantly stepping up into the scale we are at, so I don’t want to get wrapped around an IPO axle.” 

The company has discussed a public listing as soon as 2027, The Wall Street Journal reported.
As OpenAI ramps up its spending on data center capacity to unheard of levels, the company is hoping the federal government will support its efforts by helping to guarantee the financing for chips behind its deals, Friar said. The depreciation rates of AI chips remain uncertain, making it more expensive for companies to raise the debt needed to buy them. 

“This is where we’re looking for an ecosystem of banks, private equity, maybe even governmental, the ways governments can come to bear,” she said. Any such guarantee “can really drop the cost of the financing but also increase the loan-to-value, so the amount of debt you can take on top of an equity portion.”

Friar said OpenAI could reach profitability on “very healthy” gross margins in its enterprise and consumer businesses quickly if it weren’t seeking to invest so aggressively.

“I’m not overly focused on a break-even moment today,” she said. “I know if I had to get to break-even, I have a healthy enough margin structure that I could do that by pulling back on investment.”

OpenAI is losing money at a faster pace than almost any other startup in Silicon Valley history thanks to the upside-down economics of building and selling generative AI. The company expects to spend roughly $600 billion on computing power from Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon in the next few years, meaning that it will have to grow sales exponentially in order to make the payments. Friar said that the ChatGPT maker is on pace to generate $13 billion in revenue this year.  

Friar said the company is trying to find new ways to grow sales beyond its ChatGPT subscription business. She emphasized the growth in OpenAI’s enterprise sales, saying that they now account for roughly 40% of revenue, up from 30% at the beginning of the year. Many corporate customers are now moving from “pilot to full production,” she added, citing sectors such as financial services and healthcare. 

OpenAI is currently battling its smaller rival Anthropic for these customers. While the company has a commanding lead among consumers, that also means it has to subsidize the computing costs for nonpaying users of ChatGPT, hurting its margins....

....MUCH MORE 

No. Not even with convertibles equal to 90% of common equity and perpetual warrants for Altman's stock at a penny. No.

"AI has real problems. The smart money is investing in the companies solving them now."

From MarketWatch, November 4:

This overlooked area of tech is making money for investors 

The same AI that aced the genius test can’t count how 
many times the letter “R” appears in “strawberry.”

OpenAI’s o3 just cleared artificial general intelligence (AGI) benchmarks. Eighty-seven percent on ARC-AGI, the test that’s supposed to measure whether machines can actually think.

Silicon Valley popped the champagne. OpenAI’s Sam Altman took a victory lap. The headlines screamed “AGI is here!”

Except there’s one tiny problem. The same AI that aced the genius test can’t count how many times the letter “R” appears in “strawberry.”

It’s three, by the way. S-T-R-A-W-B-E-R–R-Y. Three R’s. But advanced language models (the ones that can write legal briefs and debug code) insist there are two.

My 4-year-old grandson can count the three Rs in strawberry. I could reward him with Skittles. OpenAI’s o3 costs up to $30,000 per task and still can’t figure it out.

AI fails at character-level reasoning because of how it processes language as “tokens” rather than individual letters. When you can write a sonnet but can’t spell “strawberry,” you haven’t achieved intelligence. You’ve achieved an extremely expensive parlor trick.

It’s like teaching a dog to play poker, then discovering it can’t count the cards. Impressive? Sure. Useful? Not if you’re playing for money.

This isn’t a bug. It’s a metaphor for America’s entire AI strategy. We’re winning a race to build artificial gods that can’t count. China is winning the race to deploy AI that actually works. 

But some middle-layer companies are bridging this gap. They’re about to print money. And Wall Street is missing it entirely.

The Wrong Holy Grail 

China isn’t trying to build artificial deities. It’s embedding good-enough 
AI into manufacturing, logistics, and infrastructure.

Former Alphabet CEO Eric Schmidt calls artificial superintelligence “tech’s holy grail.” In congressional testimony this year, Schmidt warned that America’s AI sector would need power equivalent to 90 nuclear plants by 2030.

Meanwhile, a report in Foreign Affairs, entitled “The Cost of the AGI Delusion,” argued that, by chasing superintelligence, America is falling behind. China isn’t trying to build artificial deities. It’s embedding good-enough AI into manufacturing, logistics and infrastructure — with 70% adoption targets by 2027.

Yes, American companies are deploying AI aggressively. Microsoft’s Copilot, Salesforce’s Einstein — every major enterprise is racing to integrate LLMs. U.S. tech companies lead in cutting-edge AI research.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: More than 80% of U.S. AI projects fail to deliver results. Eighty-eight percent of pilots never reach production. The issue isn’t whether America is using AI — it’s whether the U.S. can deploy it at scale. China’s treating AI adoption like high-speed rail: centrally coordinated, massive infrastructure investment and mandatory targets. America is letting each company figure it out independently.

U.S. companies are trying to build superintelligence that can’t count to three. China is building infrastructure that works right now.

As President Donald Trump’s AI czar, David Sacks, admitted: “China is not years and years behind us in AI. Maybe they’re three to six months.” Real impressive lead we’ve got there.

A recent analysis coauthored by Schmidt; Alexandr Wang, now chief AI officer at Meta Platforms; and Dan Hendrycks, director of the nonprofit Center for AI Safety, warned that if either the U.S. or China approaches superintelligence first, the other would view it as a national-security emergency, potentially triggering preventive cyberattacks or even kinetic strikes on AI datacenters.

America is betting civilization on a sprint to build something it doesn’t understand while China wins the race to deploy AI that works.

The missing ingredients nobody’s fixing

Three fundamental problems stand between automation and actual reasoning:

1. Autonomous self-learning: Current AI needs massive training runs consuming millions of dollars in compute. It can’t learn continuously like humans do....

....MUCH MORE 

Molotov Ribbentrop Mk. II Not Yet Happening: "Germany Dodges Russia's Offer Of Non-Aggression Guarantee For NATO, EU"

Poland breathes a sigh of relief.

From ZeroHedge, November 4:

Amid enduring anxiety over the potential for the Ukraine war to escalate into a third world war, Russia last week offered to cement its disinterest in invading Europe by entering into a formal non-aggression pact with European Union and NATO states. However, Germany quickly signaled its disinterest in such a treaty -- at least for now. 

In making the case for pouring weapons and money into Ukraine and urging it to prolong the war at any cost, Western hawks routinely claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin is bent on reconstituting the Soviet Union and eventually conquering Europe. Speaking at the Third Minsk International Conference in Belarus last Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov not only rejected those accusations, but said his country was willing to enter into a non-aggression pact: 

"We have repeatedly said that we had, and have, no intention to attack any current NATO or EU member. We are ready to enshrine this position in future security guarantees for this part of Eurasia." 

Lavrov also expressed exasperation with Western governments, saying meaningful dialogue with them is futile for now, given their refusal to entertain "genuine collective security guarantees" that address the security interests of all parties -- including Russia: 

"The heads of state and government of the European Union avoid considering these future guarantees, which are based on a completely collective foundation, and proudly declare that, after the Ukraine crisis, security guarantees should exist not with Russia's participation, but against Russia. This is an example of their mindset."

Following up on Russia's offer at a press conference held by German Foreign Office spokeswoman Kathrin Deschauer, journalist Florian Warweg of NachDenkSeiten asked about the German state's assessment of the non-aggression-pact overtures. Rather than crediting Russia's peaceful overture, Deschauer sidestepped the question, saying its Germany's position that "the Russian side must end its war. In the meantime, "the German government will continue to support Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression."....

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"Arm steps up its AI investments as it cashes in on another billion-dollar quarter" (ARM)

From Dow Jones via Morningstar, November 5:

Arm says its rising revenue allows it to spend on research and development that helps meet growing customer demand

Arm's stock rose about 3.5% in after-hours trading Wednesday.

Shares of Arm Holdings PLC were climbing in Wednesday's extended session after the chip maker reported its third consecutive quarter of more than $1 billion in revenue.

The chip designer reported revenue of $1.14 billion for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, reflecting a 34% increase from the year before, and topping estimates for $1.06 billion on FactSet. Its royalty revenue grew 21% from last year to $620 million, also topping the FactSet consensus for $587 million.

Arm (ARM) attributed growth in that segment, which includes the smartphone, data-center and automotive markets, to "continued adoption of Arm technology with higher royalty rates per chip," and higher uptake in data centers.

"In the data center, access to power has now become the bottleneck," which has fueled increased demand for Arm products, CEO Rene Haas said on the earnings call.

Meanwhile, Arm's licensing revenue was $515 million, representing 56% growth from the previous year.

"Demand for the Arm platform is strong as more leading companies signed high-value licenses for next-generation technologies," the company said in a shareholder letter.

Arm also delivered upbeat guidance for the current quarter, projecting $1.225 billion in revenue and 41 cents in adjusted earnings per share, whereas analysts were modeling $1.111 billion and 35 cents, respectively.... 

....MUCH MORE 

Here's the release from the company. 

"Nvidia’s Jensen Huang softens his ‘China will win the AI race’ remark to FT"

From CNBC, November 6: 

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang initially told the FT that China would “win the AI race,” before clarifying that America must “race ahead.”
• Huang contrasted China’s pro-industry energy subsidies with what he described as excessive Western regulation.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang reportedly told the Financial Times on Wednesday that “China is going to win the AI race,” only to release a notably softer statement soon after. 

The prolific tech leader was speaking on the sidelines of the FT’s Future of AI Summit, where he warned that China would beat the U.S. in artificial intelligence thanks to lower energy costs and looser regulations.

The comments, which CNBC could not verify independently, would represent Huang’s starkest warning yet that the U.S. is at risk of losing its global lead in advanced AI technologies. 

However, several hours after the FT published its report, Nvidia issued a separate statement from Jensen on an official X account. 

*** 

“As I have long said, China is nanoseconds behind America in AI. It’s vital that America wins by racing ahead and winning developers worldwide,” he added.

Huang has long stated that the U.S. can stay ahead in the AI race if it keeps developers reliant on Nvidia’s leading AI chips — an argument the CEO has used to lobby against export restrictions on his company’s sales to China. 

Following meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump in July, it seemed that Huang’s efforts had paid off, with Washington agreeing to ease some of its chip curbs. 

Under the plan, Nvidia and competing AI chip company AMD had agreed to pay the U.S. government 15% of their Chinese revenues from sales of existing AI processors tailored for the market.

However, Beijing has since shut Nvidia out of the market as it conducts a national security review of its chips, with Huang stating that the firm’s market share has been reduced to zero. 

It remains unclear whether China will allow any of Nvidia’s chips to return, as officials push domestic tech companies towards its domestic AI chip alternatives. However, some experts have speculated that Beijing is using Nvidia’s market access as leverage in trade negotiations or to push Washington for wider access to advanced semiconductors....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also May 11's "Nvidia CEO On AI Competition: China is right behind us, We’re very, very close". 

Singapore’s Top Real-Estate Asset Managers Mull Merger That Could Create $150 Billion Entity

From the Wall Street Journal, November 2:

The two property developers could start laying the groundwork for the process as early as next year 

Two of Singapore’s biggest real-estate asset managers are exploring a merger that could create one of Asia-Pacific’s top property companies with more than US$150 billion in assets under management, people familiar with the process said.

Temasek-owned Mapletree Investments and Singapore-listed CapitaLand Investment

are considering a potential business combination, people familiar with the matter said. The two property developers are likely to start laying the groundwork for the process as early as next year, the people said.

The plans are in the very initial stages, and a deal may or may not materialize, the people said.

“CapitaLand Investment remains committed to delivering long-term shareholder value and routinely evaluates investment opportunities aligned with its strategy,” a spokesperson said, adding that the company doesn’t comment on rumors or speculation.

Temasek and Mapletree Investments both declined to comment.

One person said the process is part of the recent moves by Temasek-owned entities to evaluate options for growing their businesses into larger, stronger global entities. Temasek owns 100% of Mapletree Investments and 54% of CapitaLand Investment.

In 2023, Temasek portfolio companies Keppel Offshore & Marine and Sembcorp Marine merged to form Seatrium, creating a unified entity that ranks among the world’s leading rig builders. In 2021, CapitaLand announced a comprehensive restructuring plan that brought together its multibillion-dollar fund-management and hospitality businesses.

As of Aug. 13, 2025, CapitaLand Investment had 117 billion Singapore dollars in assets under management, equivalent to around US$90 billion, held via stakes in seven listed real-estate investment trusts and business trusts....

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"Google to announce largest-ever investment plan for Germany, Handelsblatt reports" (GOOG)

From Reuters, November 5: 

U.S. tech giant Google plans to present its largest-ever investment plan for Germany next week, business news outlet Handelsblatt reported on Thursday.

Details of the project are scheduled to be announced at a press conference alongside Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil on November 11, the report said....

....MORE 

 

Probably related, TechCrunch via MSN, November 4:

Nvidia, Deutsche Telekom strike €1B partnership for a data center in Munich

"Yields Spike After Treasury Refunding Unexpectedly Warns Bessent Considering 'Increases To Future Auction Sizes'"

CBOE 10-year 4.155 +0.065

 

Five day chart  TradingView 

From ZeroHedge, November 5:

Superficially, there were no surprises in the quantitative aspects of this morning's Treasury refunding announcement: as previewed earlier, the Treasury just announced a total quarterly refunding size of $125 billion, just as expected, and furthermore indicated it’s not looking to boost sales of notes and bonds "for at least the next several quarters", in a decision that will see the government increasingly rely on bills to fund the budget deficit. However, the big surprise was the announcement that "looking ahead, Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on evaluating trends in structural demand and assessing potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles." Translation: no bond auction increases for a few months, and then we blast off, and the bond market reacted appropriately sending 10Y yields to session highs. 

Here are the details.

In  its refunding statement Wednesday, the department said it anticipated keeping auction sizes unchanged for nominal notes and bonds “for at least the next several quarters.” That form language, which has been used since early last year, reflects the higher cost of issuing longer-dated securities compared with bills, which mature in up to a year.

Next week’s auctions of 3-, 10- and 30-year maturities will total $125 billion, the same amount going back to May last year. Dealers had widely expected the move, and most don’t see an increase in issuance of notes and bonds until mid-2026 or later to help finance federal deficits, which have declined slightly in part because of tariff revenue.

For next week’s refunding auctions, they will be made up of:

• $58 billion of 3-year notes on Nov. 10
• $42 billion of 10-year notes on Nov. 12
• $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Nov. 13

The balance of Treasury financing requirements over the quarter will be met with regular weekly bill auctions, cash management bills (CMBs), and monthly note, bond, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and 2-year Floating Rate Note (FRN) auctions.

The Treasury issuance forecast table below, which shows actual auction sizes for the August to October 2025 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the November 2025 to January 2026 quarter, is identical to the preview we posted earlier (see below), confirming no surprises....

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"AI's Impact on the Physical World"

From Austin Vernon's substack,  Jul 06, 2025:

The Outsize Impact of AI Logistics
Automated logistics will heavy impact one third of GDP. 

A common criticism of recent AI advances is that they only impact the digital world and not the physical one. Robotics can increase the impact, but which robots are the most important? Below, I'll make the case that logistics robots should have a dramatic effect on our economy and daily life.

Logistics In America
Logistics directly accounts for ~10% of the US economy and heavily impacts another quarter of GDP through the manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail, and construction industries. The usual ways to move goods are:

1. Truck

   Trucking accounts for the majority of freight by volume and value due to its flexibility and speed. It beat rail due to the interstate system and improved truck technology. Costs are typically $0.10 to $0.30 per ton-mile for full trucks. Less-than-truckload can be 10x-100x more per ton-mile.

2. Delivery Vans, Consumer Cars, etc.

   Mostly local, last-mile delivery. The cost tends to be astronomical, often $15 to $200 per ton-mile. Consumers also pay similar rates shopping at retail stores but internalize the costs by sacrificing time and adding personal vehicle miles.

3. Freight Rail

   The US has one of the best freight rail systems in the world. Railroads focus on grain, coal, oil, or chemicals. Long-haul containers have also been a growth area. They charge $0.03 to $0.05 per ton-mile under normal conditions. Rail tends to be slower and less predictable than trucks and has high fixed costs. It is not competitive in higher-value shipments or short hauls.

4. Air Freight

   Air freight is specialized for speed and costs more than $2.00 per ton-mile. Air freight still requires some form of last-mile.

5. Domestic Barge/Ship

   Shipping on water costs $0.01 to $0.03 per ton-mile. It is mostly river barges in the US because of the Jones Act. It makes sense for bulk goods without time constraints or large items that can't fit on rail or truck.

6. Pipelines

   Pipes are an absurdly inexpensive way to move liquids and gases in bulk.
   

The relative importance of different logistics systems shapes America. Firms build big box stores or select factory locations to minimize their logistics burden. Wal-Mart and Costco are directly downstream of truck dominance, for example.

Any advance in logistics has massive effects on our fabric of life and standard of living.

Breaking Down Cost Structures
Trucking and last-mile dominate total revenue share and matter most. Trains, pipelines, and water transport will continue to move large quantities of bulk goods. Traditional air freight will remain niche.

Trucks main cost categories are labor-related costs and fuel. They are >70% of semi-truck costs. The truck itself and maintenance account for the remainder.

Last-mile and sorting are the majority of the total logistics costs for parcels and deliveries. Labor costs are much higher because a driver carrying 500 pounds of packages costs about the same as a semi-truck driver carrying 30 tons of freight. Packages are unloaded one by one instead of with forklifts. The percentage of cargo weight to vehicle weight is low compared to semi-trucks. These inefficiencies are why many stores are warehouses where customers can load up and make the most of their trip. And why distribution centers for last-mile delivery are close to customers. The proximity allows semi-trucks to carry as many ton-miles as possible.

Labor, fuel, maintenance, and vehicle weight/cost are the most critical metrics to attack for improvement. The primary tension is that our existing transport technologies require scale and centralization for efficiency, but final customers are diffuse.

The AI and Electrification Opportunity
The first-order answer for cost reductions is clear. Remove the driver with software and reduce fuel costs with batteries. Automated driving is improving rapidly. LFP battery packs for autonomous semi-trucks are already theoretically cheap enough except in the US. Trucking would see significant cost declines. I think this result is already a given, especially since AI drivers can use small battery packs that charge more often than human driver hour rules allow.

The second-order optimization is much more interesting. The minimum cost of any size shipment plummets by removing the human driver and using a versatile electric powertrain. Haulers can use lower minimum costs to break up shipments into smaller chunks. That means more point-to-point, eliminating much of the distribution that today's truck logistics require. Prices for some categories, like less-than-truckload, could decline by 80% to 90%. These changes are extreme enough to reorganize goods-oriented businesses.

Full Trucks and Pallet Aggregation
The humble pallet is the default unit of transport in the US. Truck trailers are glorified pallet transporters. Only categories like parcels or e-commerce shipments still regularly stack boxes. The pallet is so productive because it allows mechanized transport via forklifts, eliminating break bulk labor. The risk of damaged or lost goods also falls precipitously. It is a modern miracle. Aggregating and disaggregating dozens of pallets in trucks happens to gain economies of scale in shipping.

The name of the game for minimizing truck logistics costs is to have full trucks drive point-to-point with no side stops. Less-than-truckload type pickups and deliveries incur last-mile inefficiencies. The distribution center, perfected by companies like Wal-Mart, unlocks full trucks point-to-point. A truck can take a load of grape jelly from the factory to the distribution center. Pallets of grape jelly are loaded on different trucks heading to stores. These trucks also carry other assorted items, like peanut butter, bread, or paper plates, that arrive on single trucks from their respective factories. The most efficient of these systems can "cross-dock" pallets in <24 hours. Sam's Club and Costco are the peak of this style of logistics, where pallets are not even unpacked but wheeled into aisles for customers to pick from.

The drawbacks of this system are that it only works at very high volumes, and distribution centers are expensive.

The extra handling is costly because one pallet might require 5-6 forklift moves to reach the shelf at Costco. And the intermediate goods to create those products require many times that. There are incredible efficiency and speed gains available for any technology that can cost-effectively end pallet aggregation....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously from Austin Vernon's substack 

June 2025 - Removing Carbon Dioxide From The Air: "A Review of Massively Scalable Enhanced Rock Weathering"

I wanted this on the blog as a personal bookmark, he goes deep.... 

Tariffs: Today's Supreme Court Oral Arguments

The last few days at SCOTUSblog:

November 3 -  What can we learn from the Supreme Court’s first round of oral arguments? (general overview of the court)

November 3 - President Trump’s tariffs v. the Supreme Court’s duties 

November 4 - The other arguments in Trump’s tariffs case  

November 4 - The tariffs case and whether amicus briefs matter 

"Nvidia Stock Drops Again. What’s Hurting the AI Chip Maker." (AMD; NVDA)

From Barron's, November 5:

Nvidia stock was sliding early on Wednesday as market worries about the artificial-intelligence trade hit the chip maker, while hopes of resumed sales to China also look less likely.

Nvidia shares were down 1.3% at $196.11 in premarket trading after the stock fell 4% on Tuesday. AI-exposed companies in general were suffering losses, with futures tracking the S&P 500 down 0.2%.

There looks to be increased concern about valuations of companies exposed to the AI boom. Fellow chip company Advanced Micro Devices was sliding 5% in premarket trading following its earnings, despite its executives saying “demand for compute has never been greater” in a call with analysts.

“As for the most advanced [Nvidia] Blackwell chip, that’s not something we’re interested in selling to China at this time,” Leavitt said....

....MORE 

"In 1953, the Ford X-100 Concept Car Had It All Heated seats, a radio phone, even an electric shaver in the glove box"

Still waiting for the Musk - Huang levitating personal transporter. With coffee maker.
Thought it would be here by now.

From IEEE Spectrum, October 31:

In 1954, in a moment of absolute frankness, the president of Gifford Motors described his company’s latest luxury automobile: “Designed to appeal to the snob in everyone. Designed to convert your bank account into our dividends.”

Perhaps you’re wondering why you never heard of such an honest car executive. That’s because he existed only in Hollywood. The lines come from the opening scene of the 1954 drama Woman’s World, in which three businessmen—with a generous assist from their wives—vie to become the next general manager of the fictitious Gifford Motors.

What Was the Ford X-100 Concept Car? 
Onscreen shenanigans aside, the luxury car featured in the film was the real deal: the Ford X-100 concept car. An early version debuted at the Chicago Auto Show in early 1952. The two-door convertible on display had no engine, gears, or gadgets, but its exterior, likely made of plaster and fiberglass, resembled a rocket ship, which was the intention of designer Joe Oros.

Over the next year and a half, Ford engineers, led by Hiram Pacific, spent at least US $2 million (about $24 million today) turning the display model into a fully functional car. Paul Adams was chief electrical engineer and in charge of most of the gadgets; Paul Wagner was the electrical engineer tasked with making the electrical system work. By the time they were done, the car contained 302 kilograms of electrical equipment, including a 12-volt ignition system, an extra-large generator, 24 electrical motors, 44 vacuum tubes, 50 lightbulbs, 92 control switches, 29 solenoids, 53 relays, 23 circuit breakers, and 10 fuses, all connected by 16 kilometers of wiring. That’s a lot of electronics, but then again, a lot of gizmos were jammed into the car. Touted as a “laboratory on wheels,” the futuristic auto included more than 50 innovations.

One of the most visible features was the clear, nonglare, heatproof plastic sliding roof panel. At the flick of a lever, the windows rolled down and the top retracted. When an electrical moisture sensor detected a hint of rain, it would automatically seal the car. Alas, the X-100 did not have air conditioning. I’m a South Carolinian, and the thought of an uncooled drive on a sunny, hot August day is, let’s say, unappealing. I suspect the designers, being in Detroit, hadn’t thought through summer in the Deep South.

 

In this 1953 photo, the Ford X-100’s roof panel is retracted and the windows are down. The Henry Ford 

The designers did consider certain types of weather because the windshield wipers could spray hot or cold fluid depending on the outside temperature, and the rear window had a defroster. Another feature that I’m sure wowed people in colder climates were the car’s heated leather seats. The front seats were also electrically adjustable in six positions, with presets for two different drivers.

The car had a 10-tube, signal-seeking radio with separate controls and speakers for front and rear passengers. The radio itself was tucked out of sight below the dashboard, but a prismatic mirror could be lowered to show the dial.

Bluetooth pairing obviously wasn’t available in 1953, but the Ford X-100 did have a radiophone mounted in the center console, through which you could place calls via the Bell System’s Mobile Telephone Service. It also had a dictaphone to record all those great ideas you’d have while driving around with the wind in your hair....

....MUCH MORE  

Zandi at Moody's: "‘Top of my list of worries’: Why the stock market’s boom could become America’s biggest risk"

This is our third post on the theme and will be the last until next year.

Just something to tuck into the reptile brain for a possible (though highly improbable) 2026 - 2028 survival mode/lifeboat ethics scenario. 

From Yahoo Finance, October 19:

The economy’s biggest risk may not be tariffs or private credit but the stock market itself, where roughly $9 trillion in equity gains over the past year have powered high-income spending that could quickly reverse if portfolios start flashing red instead of green.

“The surge in stock prices is so key to the well-to-do who are driving consumer spending,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, told Yahoo Finance on Friday. “If that gets turned into reverse and we see stock prices decline, then that’s the real threat to the economy in my mind.”

Moody’s estimates the top 10% of earners account for about half of all consumer spending, a dynamic that’s kept growth steady even as inflation and tariffs bite lower-income households. That link between spending power and market performance has become increasingly evident amid fresh market swings.

US stocks rose on Friday as President Trump eased fears of a further trade escalation with China, rebounding from Thursday’s steep losses sparked by renewed worries over private credit. Regional banks, including Zions (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL), also recovered after reports of fraudulent loans and mounting credit stress added to investor jitters against the backdrop of a prolonged government shutdown.

Still, Zandi said those risks pale next to what’s building in financial markets, where a sharp reversal could quickly shake the confidence of the wealthy households powering US growth.

“Of all the risks out there, from what’s going on in the banking system to the government shutdown and everything else, that’s the one that’s at the top of my list of worries,” he said.

“I’m more sanguine about the banking system,” he added. “I’m less sanguine about financial markets. Valuations are high. ...Everything feels a bit juiced, overvalued, bordering on frothy.”

Zandi warned that froth is directly tied to the same high-income households driving US consumption. That means if market gains unwind, the very group propping up spending could quickly pull back.

'Bifurcation of the consumer' 
Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight Research, which tracks global retail and consumer trends, said the split between high- and low-income households is at its highest level since January 2020.

“The high-end consumer right now is still very strong and stronger than we would have even expected,” Weinswig said, noting spending among wealthier shoppers has continued to rise through the fall.

At the same time, lower-income households are stretching their budgets by visiting more stores per trip, about five or six now versus three before the pandemic, as they hunt for bargains and stack promotions. 

“We continue to see this middle [consumer] being really squeezed,” she said, pointing to discount and luxury retailers as the clear winners. “Those value-oriented retailers on the bottom and those true luxury brands on the top — that’s where we continue to see a lot of strength.”

Weinswig said the retailers that stand to gain the most in this environment include Walmart (WMT), which continues to attract higher-income shoppers, along with the warehouse clubs like Costco (COST), BJ’s (BJ), and Sam’s Club, which she said have the strongest community ties and most sophisticated consumer data.

TJX Companies (TJX), Ross Stores (ROST), and Burlington (BURL) also stand out as shoppers trade down and hunt for bargains.

"We're going to start to see not only bifurcation of the consumer, but also in some of these stocks," she added, predicting sharper performance gaps ahead between retailers that can adapt and those that can’t....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously: 

"The stockmarket is fuelling America’s economy"

Reprising the introduction to September 19's "The top 10% of Americans account for nearly half of consumer spending":

...seeing this story's headline, my first thoughts were "Single point of failure/point of maximum leverage; attack the source of that money (and urge to splurge)—asset markets— and recession/depression is guaranteed".
It's all in how you look at the world. 

From The Economist....

See also, if interested December 2019's (got lucky on the timing):

"Zvi Bodie and the Keynes’ Paradox of Thrift"

"Asia’s Dual Scramble: Critical Minerals, Energy, and the Traders Holding It Together"

From The Diplomat, November 3:

With global supply chains under unprecedented strain, traders have a critical role to play.

Two revolutions are taking place in Asia simultaneously: clean tech and AI, and both are creating a double-barreled scramble. One is generating a demand for critical minerals at a level hitherto unknown, while the other is fueling energy demand more broadly. Together, these two ongoing transformations are forming the backbone of both a green transition and digital expansion, which is driving a surging demand for copper, nickel, cobalt, LNG, and, of course, technical know-how. Governments continue to hunt high and low to secure their supply chains, while traditional mining companies chase new deposits. New stabilizers, however, are emerging on the scene, the potential of which, to date, has been overlooked. These are the trading and logistics houses quietly keeping the region’s factories, data centers, and power grids adequately supplied.

The Industrial Surge Meets Supply-Chain Friction

Asia’s industrial shift is placing unprecedented strain on global supply chains. The reasons for this can be seen in almost every industrialized economy in the region, including South Korea’s vast EV-battery corridors, India’s data center build-out, and Singapore’s hydrogen ambitions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that demand for key minerals will increase by a whopping 300 percent by 2040. Alongside this prediction, regional electricity consumption is projected to increase by a similarly astounding 70 percent by 2035. All of this notwithstanding, shipping bottlenecks, refinery shortages, and new geopolitical fault lines from the Red Sea to the South China Sea threaten the global economies’ most significant arteries of growth.

At the same time, the United States has begun to rewire supply chains through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), seeking to pull allies such as Japan, Australia, and the Philippines into a non-Chinese critical-minerals network. This adds an additional layer of competition and opportunity across Asia’s mineral corridors, as regional players reposition between Washington’s friend-shoring agenda and Beijing’s entrenched refining dominance.

Although governments are aware of these looming challenges, they are responding with long-term investments and bilateral deals and strategies that move far too slowly to keep pace with the challenges. The flexibility, financing, and on-the-ground access required to maintain a steady flow of critical materials can instead come from a more flexible and experienced source: private traders. These can serve as adaptable intermediaries, with extensive experience and connections, making them capable of pivoting between the numerous relevant actors in this space, including producers, ports, and end-users.

The Unsung Role of Traders

Commodities traders are more than just intermediaries; a more accurate way to view them is as market shock absorbers. They have the capacity to hedge volatility, reroute shipments, and finance smaller producers and governments who might otherwise be locked out of traditional credit systems. In Asia’s context, where many economies still rely on outdated infrastructure and fragmented transportation networks, adaptability becomes a highly valued form of security. Indeed, with global economic and political uncertainty deepening by the day, such traders are emerging as crucial anchors of Asia’s resource strategy.

Beyond market functionality, these trading houses increasingly operate as decentralized security infrastructures. Their distributed storage networks, data-driven logistics, and AI-based traceability systems allow them to act as real-time stabilizers when state-level arrangements falter. In a world of geopolitical fragmentation, traders’ agility has become a form of economic deterrence, ensuring supply continuity even as governments re-evaluate alliances.

The Traders Defining the New Era

Across the sector, a handful of select firms illustrate this quiet evolution which is underway. Radiant World is an established energy trader that has diversified its holdings into rare-earth and base-metal trading, connecting African producers with Asian buyers seeking access to non-Chinese supply. IXM has been a familiar name in the metals world for a long time. It has recently invested heavily in digital logistics and real-time traceability tools, helping it meet both transparency and ESG compliance requirements. Gunvor, a household name among market followers, has historically focused on oil but has expanded its portfolio to include biofuels and transitional energy commodities, and is now also exploring the battery-metal chain.

And then there is BGN International, a mid-sized but globally active trader adapting decades of energy expertise to the mineral and metals age. Operating out of Geneva, BGN has introduced a hybrid shipping model that blends large deepwater vessels with smaller ships capable of accessing older, shallow ports mirroring Asia’s uneven maritime infrastructure. In September, the company launched a Geneva-based metals trading desk led by former Trafigura trader Claire Blanchelande, alongside a new Asia hub in Singapore under former Squarepoint trader Daniel Yu. The expansion places BGN squarely in the race for base metals and battery materials resources driving the next phase of industrial growth. BGN’s evolution into metals and critical minerals underscores how legacy traders are reengineering their operations to meet modern market demands.

Why It Matters for Asia...

....MUCH MORE 

Data Centers: "$10B + spent on liquid cooling this week – it's only Tuesday"

Following on October 17's Opportunity: "Next-Gen AI Needs Liquid Cooling". 

From The Register, November 4:

Eaton and Vertiv splash cash as HPC infrastructure and AI factories run hot 

Liquid cooling tech is hot. It's only Tuesday and already infrastructure specialists have forked out more than $10 billion on companies proffering tech that promises to help ease energy bills of datacenter operators.

Power management biz Eaton has signed an agreement to acquire the Boyd Thermal business of Boyd Corporation from Goldman Sachs Asset Management for $9.5 billion, while digital infrastructure firm Vertiv is set to absorb PurgeRite Intermediate LLC, a company specializing in optimizing cooling systems, for approximately $1 billion in cash.

The operating expense of heat dissipation in bit barns can account for between 30 to 45 percent [PDF] of total energy costs, according to some estimates, and the density of compute in high-performance infrastructures means those running bit barns are looking for ways to cut bills.

Eaton, perhaps best known for its uninterruptible power supply (UPS) kit, says that Boyd will bring on board its liquid cooling tech designed for increased power requirements.

The $9.5 billion Eaton is paying for the subsidiary represents an eye-watering 22.5 times Boyd Thermal's estimated earnings for next year. It has forecast sales of $1.7 billion for 2026, of which $1.5 billion is in liquid cooling. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to conditions and regulatory approval....

....MUCH MORE 

Not (yet) related, June 28:

"How the UK is testing a radical plan to refreeze the Arctic"

"Looking to experts for how the Supreme Court will rule on tariffs? They aren't sure either."

It doesn't really matter how the Supremes rule, tariffs of one sort or another will be in place at the end of 2025 and the US, Mexico, Canada trade agreement will be renegotiated early next summer.

In the meantime our best guess is that the Court will rule against the Administration on at least one of the points being argued, the pundits will splash headlines about refunding the money already collected (I think it was $32 billion last month), the deficit will be calculated to grow, treasuries will get sold and I will be posting that "this isn't the real market whack" but the one before the real star-spangled, bubble-bursting, all-American market panic.

From Yahoo Finance, November 4:

This week's highly anticipated arguments around President Trump's use of emergency powers have many calling the case a toss-up.

Tariff watchers have had this Wednesday circled on their calendars for weeks now, as the Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on the legality of the authority President Trump has used to impose the lion's share of his tariffs.

That’s in part because observers are split about how things will play out once deliberations begin and ahead of a decision that could come before the end of the year.

The case — formally known as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump — is one that experts in both the legal and trade space are calling a toss-up. And it's made all the more fraught by Trump's keen personal interest in the outcome and a White House public pressure campaign already in evidence.

As for the projections, the odds are notable in how little confidence there is in any outcome.

In a Yahoo Finance interview recently, both Raymond James managing director Ed Mills and Veda Partners managing partner Henrietta Treyz floated coin-flip level 50% odds, with Treyz adding a base case from "50% to 65% odds that the Supreme Court will side with two lower courts and say the president doesn't have this authority."....

....MUCH MORE