Friday, May 24, 2019

Shipping: 2020 Low Sulfur Fuel Requirements Will Disrupt Oil/Refined Markets Up to Five Years

From gCaptain:

IMO 2020 Will Disrupt Markets for 1-5 Years -Boston Consulting Group 
The marine industry’s January 2020 shift to using very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) to power ships worldwide will launch a one- to five-year disruption in oil and refined products markets, according to a study released Thursday by Boston Consulting Group.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s mandated switch will require fuels to have a sulfur content below 0.5%, compared with 3.5% now. It aims to improve human health by reducing air pollution from sea-going vessels.

The changeover may increase profits for refiners, especially on the U.S. Gulf Coast, where plants are designed to process high-sulfur crudes. It could also benefit producers of shale oil, which has a lower sulfur content than other varieties, the study found.

Conversely, prices for high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) or bunker fuel, with a maximum sulfur content of 3.5%, will fall as demand erodes, according to the study.

“The effects will be more than made up for by higher market prices for VLSFO and middle distillates, leaving most refiners, particularly complex refiners on the U.S. Gulf Coast, with substantially higher margins than they had before the disruption,” it said....MORE
We've had many, many posts on the impending change, here are a few of note:
June 2018
Shipping: The New Low Sulpher Rules Will Have A Huge Impact On the Oil Business (shipping and world economy too)
April 2018
"Rich Rewards Await Top Oil Refiners as Ships Make Low Sulphur Switch Fuel": 
This is a pretty big deal that's been on the horizon* for a while but hasn't gotten much notice outside the shipping industry and the specialist press until recentl

June 2018
Top Norwegian Oil Analyst Quitting DNB to Pursue 2020 Low Sulphur Fuel Rule Riches