"Russia’s Economy Is on the Brink of Collapse"

Not yet "on the brink" but moving closer to the brink with each passing day. 

From 19FortyFive, April 27:

Putin is the Head of a Russian State on the Brink of Economic Collapse: Leonid Putin, meet Vladimir Brezhnev. Serious Russian economists are increasingly of the opinion that Russia is in deep trouble and that Putin’s policies are bringing it to the point of collapse.

In that sense, Putin’s Russia is following in the footsteps of Brezhnev’s USSR.

The Russian Economy Is in Trouble

A case in point is the view of one of Russia’s leading mathematicians, Academician Robert Nigmatulin, who told the Moscow Economic Forum in April 2026 that Russia’s economy is experiencing an existential crisis.

Reform won’t do the trick anymore. Restructuring—shades of Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika!—is imperative. But economic restructuring presupposes political restructuring, which is impossible as long as Putin remains in power and believes, correctly, that his survival hinges on continuing the war against Ukraine.

An ethnic Bashkir, the 85-year-old Nigmatulin is a distinguished member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He served as the president of Bashkortostan’s Academy of Sciences and is a laureate of the USSR State Prize. In a word, he’s an authority, a full-fledged member of the Russian establishment, and no rabble-rouser.

His views must be taken seriously.

The Challenges Are Big for Moscow 

Nigmatulin identified the following critical problems:

-Russians have the lowest disposable income in all of Europe, and China’s poorest regions are better off than Russia’s.

-Russia suffers from Europe’s highest mortality rate.

-In 2015-2025, GDP grew 1.5 percent per annum, while consumer prices rose 77 percent, and yearly inflation stood at 7 percent.

-Since 2012, none of Vladimir Putin’s economic decrees has been implemented.

-Investments are low and inefficient.

This is “no way to run the economy,” thundered Nigmatulin. Indeed, “the existing situation is a threat to the stability of the President’s rule under conditions of war ‘fatigue’ and horrific corruption…. The crisis will last long, and we are obligated to warn the President and society.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Similar sentiments from Madame Nabiullina:

Russian central bank chief calls for honesty in economic data after Western allegations 

And Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on what this means for her, personally:

Entangled In Russia's Faltering Economy: The Fate Of Its Respected Central Banker

In Case You Missed It: The Cost Of California's High-Speed Rail Project Is Now Approaching A QUARTER-TRILLION Dollars

Two from the New York Post:

April 28 - California’s high-speed rail now ‘worst project in history’ — as insiders reveal unbelievable new cost 

April 30 - California punts on high-speed rail plan as furor grows over new $231B price tag 

Also at the Post:

Chick-fil-A employee accused of stealing $80,000 with mac & cheese scheme

That at least seems less cheesy and more realistic than the California story.  

By January 2022 the railroad was already being headlined:

California’s High-Speed Rail Went From a $33 Billion Project to the Single Largest Public Infrastructure Disaster in U.S. History

We've been following this one for a while, some links below.

From Tech Startups, January 21:

California’s $100 Billion High-Speed Rail Boondoggle Project: How California’s High-Speed Rail Went From a $33 Billion Project to Become the Single Largest Public Infrastructure Disaster in U.S. History

A few months later we saw:

October 2022
France Tried To Warn California That The California High-Speed Rail Plan Was A $100 Billion Farce  

....The state was warned repeatedly that its plans were too complex. SNCF, the French national railroad, was among bullet train operators from Europe and Japan that came to California in the early 2000s with hopes of getting a contract to help develop the system.

The company’s recommendations for a direct route out of Los Angeles and a focus on moving people between Los Angeles and San Francisco were cast aside, said Dan McNamara, a career project manager for SNCF.‌

The company‌ ‌pulled out in 2011. “There were so many things that went wrong,” Mr. McNamara said. “SNCF was very angry. They told the state they were leaving for North Africa, which was less politically dysfunctional. They went to Morocco and helped them build a rail system.”

Morocco’s bullet train started service in 2018.....

There you have it, North Africa is less politically corrupt than California. Just amazing.

Here are a couple posts from 2011:

California High-speed Rail Costs Triple to $100 Billion (and it will be arriving late)   

California High Speed Rail: The Man Who Predicted The Cost and the Delay

"Quanta (PWR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript" April 30, 2026

The stock closed at a new all-time high, up $99.17 (+15.78%) at $727.77. The new intra-day high was $728.85. It is usually a good sign when a stock closes at or near the daily or all-time, high.

From Motley Fool Transcribing, Apr. 30:

CALL PARTICIPANTS

    President & Chief Executive Officer — Earl Austin
    Chief Financial Officer — Jayshree Desai
    Vice President, Investor Relations — Kip Rupp  

TAKEAWAYS

• Revenue -- $7.9 billion reported for the quarter, reflecting double-digit growth according to management.
• Net income attributable to common stock -- $221 million, or $1.45 per diluted share.
• Adjusted diluted EPS -- $2.68 for the quarter, with management highlighting margin improvements in the Underground Utility and Infrastructure Solutions (UI) segment.
• Adjusted EBITDA -- $686 million, representing double-digit growth per management's commentary.
• Backlog -- Record $48.5 billion at quarter-end, with increases observed broadly across all segments, not driven by any single project.
• Full-year 2026 guidance -- Revenue expected between $34.7 billion and $35.2 billion; adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to a range of $3.49 billion to $3.65 billion; adjusted EPS projected at $13.55-$14.25.
• Power transformer manufacturing investment -- Management reiterated an ongoing $500 million to $700 million multi-year capital program to double transformer manufacturing capacity.
• Off-site manufacturing expansion -- Near doubling of off-site fabrication, manufacturing, and logistics facilities underway, targeting roughly 6.7 million square feet in aggregate.
• Technology and load center revenue outlook -- Management noted technology and load center revenue growth expectation moved from 70% to 110%; acquisitions and organic growth both contributing.
• Adjusted EPS growth target -- Company targets 15%-20% adjusted EPS growth annually, with an aim to more than double earnings power by 2030.
• Leverage policy -- Quanta Services intends to maintain an investment-grade balance sheet with a leverage profile of 1.5x-2x, prioritizing returns over repurchases.
• Acquisition strategy -- No acquisitions in the quarter, but management stated, "I expect us to do some M&A over the next 9 months," with future acquisitions to be additive to current guidance.
• Order trends -- Management emphasized a shift toward negotiated, programmatic contracts and noted daily inbound opportunities in data centers, transmission, and generation.

SUMMARY

Quanta Services (PWR +15.50%) raised its full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS guidance, citing broad-based demand and a record backlog spanning all major business segments. The company detailed a significant capital commitment to double transformer manufacturing capacity and expand off-site fabrication, positioning for emerging opportunities in grid modernization and large-load customers. Management outlined that margin improvement in the Underground Utility and Infrastructure Solutions segment was a principal earnings driver, and that technology and load center markets are seeing accelerated growth fueled by both strategic acquisitions and organic expansion.

• President & CEO Austin said, "We are in the rooms where customers are planning their entire multiyear capital spend," highlighting growing direct negotiation of major projects.
• Chief Financial Officer Desai stated, "while we were pleased with the performance in the first quarter, it's just early," indicating that confidence in higher-end free cash flow will be reassessed as the year progresses.
• Management highlighted that a major portion of backlog growth was driven by Master Service Agreements (MSAs) rather than single large project awards.
• Strategic objectives through 2030 remain unchanged, with Austin clarifying, "We have outlined an opportunity to more than double the earnings power of this company by 2030."
• Quanta does not factor future M&A into current guidance, but leadership expects incremental acquisitions to supplement organic growth during the remainder of the year.
• The company maintains that future transformer supply chain capacity investments and fabrication expansion serve as major differentiators in supporting both utility and hyperscaler demand.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

• Master Service Agreement (MSA): A long-term contractual arrangement with a customer covering multiple projects or scopes of work, enabling streamlined execution and negotiation for ongoing services.
• CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine): Power plants utilizing gas turbines combined with steam turbines to generate electricity more efficiently, often referenced in discussions of new generation capacity.
• Balance of plant: All supporting components and auxiliary systems of a power plant, excluding the prime mover and generator, critical in data center and renewable project builds.
• Fungibility (labor): The capability of reallocating skilled labor resources fluidly across projects, segments, or geographies as market conditions and customer needs require.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Kip Rupp: Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to the Quanta Services First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. This morning, we issued a press release announcing our first quarter 2026 results, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website at quantaservices.com. This morning, we also posted our first quarter 2026 operational and financial commentary and our 2026 outlook expectation summary on Quanta's Investor Relations website. While management will make brief introductory remarks during this morning's call, the operational and financial commentary is intended to largely replace management's prepared remarks, allowing additional time for questions from the institutional investment community.

Please remember that information reported on this call speaks only as of today, April 30, 2026, and therefore, you're advised that any time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of any replay of this call. This call will include forward-looking statements intended to qualify under the safe harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements reflecting expectations, intentions, assumptions or beliefs about future events or financial performance. You should not place undue reliance on these statements as they involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict or beyond Quanta's control, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied.

We also present certain historical and forecasted non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and operational and financial commentary. Please refer to these documents for additional information regarding our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Lastly, please sign up for e-mail alerts through the Investor Relations section of quantaservices.com to receive notifications of news releases and other information and follow Quanta IR and Quanta Services on the social media channels listed on our website. With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Mr. Duke Austin, Quanta's President and CEO. Duke?

Earl Austin: Thanks, Kip. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Quanta Services First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I want to begin by thanking our employees for their continued absolute performance mindset, dedication to safety and commitment to delivering mission-critical infrastructure solutions for our customers. Your work and dedication is what makes everything possible. Quanta is off to a strong start of the year with our first quarter results reflecting robust double-digit growth in revenues, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share, along with record backlog.

These results reflect the strength of our diversified solutions-based business model and our portfolio approach, enabling us to adapt to the evolving industry dynamics while consistently delivering execution certainty and profitable growth across varied market conditions. I want to spend a moment on what we shared at our Investor Day on March 31 because I think it is the right context for everything we are doing. Quanta has transformed, and our strategy for the next 5 years is firmly in place. What ran through everything we presented in our Investor Day was one word, certainty, execution certainty, labor certainty, supply chain certainty, schedule certainty.

That is what our customers need right now, and that is what this company is built to deliver. Utilities are being asked to double in size. Technology customers are demanding speed at scale they haven't dealt with before. Everything we have built over the past decade, our craft workforce, the integrated solutions model, the vertical supply chain investments, it all comes back to delivering that certainty at scale. And that is the conversation we are having with the customers every single day. We listen to our customers, and we are becoming more deeply embedded in the way they plan and execute their capital programs. We are in the rooms where customers are planning their entire multiyear capital spend.

We are negotiating much of the work directly. Our success is aligned with their success and with positive outcomes for the rate payer. That was not the case 5 years ago. We are there now. The trust we have built over decades, combined with the investments we have made in our craft workforce and integrated solutions model is how we created a durable compounding business that is well positioned to capitalize on large visible and durable market opportunities. To that end, on the fourth quarter call, we announced an investment of $500 million to $700 million over the next several years in our power transformer manufacturing facilities and vertical supply chain strategy, which will double our power transformer manufacturing capacity.

Additionally, we're nearly doubling our off-site manufacturing, fabrication and logistics facilities over the next several years for an aggregate of approximately 6.7 million square feet of facilities as part of our integrated fabrication and supply chain solutions. We are experiencing significant demand for these services, particularly for data centers, and these programs are just a couple of examples of Quanta's ability to provide total solutions across converging markets that are designed to deliver speed and certainty. The versatility of our craft workforce and our solution-based approach is what derisks all of us for our customers and for our investors.

That fungibility, the ability to move our people across a $2.4 trillion total addressable market converging around utility, generation and large load is what allows us to flex across markets, expand scope and keep delivering. We have outlined an opportunity to more than double the earnings power of this company by 2030. When we look at our 15% to 20% adjusted EPS growth target with the opportunity to stack above that. I want to be clear, this is not easy, and the strategy has to be in place to deliver those numbers. We believe it is. Our guidance is prudent. It has always been prudent.

And the results we reported this morning reflect exactly the kind of execution this plan is built on. I will now turn it over to Jayshree Desai, Quanta's CFO, to provide a few remarks about our results and 2026 guidance. And then we will take your questions. Jayshree?

Jayshree Desai: Thanks, Duke, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we reported first quarter results with revenues of $7.9 billion, net income attributable to common stock of $221 million or $1.45 per diluted share, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.68 and adjusted EBITDA of $686 million. Based on the continued momentum evidenced by our record $48.5 billion of backlog, the strong performance during the quarter and improved visibility into the remainder of the year, we are raising our full year financial expectations. We now expect revenues to range between $34.7 billion to $35.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA to range between $3.49 billion to $3.65 billion, and adjusted EPS to range between $13.55 and $14.25.

As Duke mentioned, we hosted an Investor Day on March 31 and outlined an opportunity to more than double the earnings power of this company by 2030. This quarter represents a great start to a 20-quarter stretch during which time we intend to deliver against that expectation along with continued improvement in our consolidated margins and returns. Over the course of our 5-year plan, we remain committed to maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet and an acquisition strategy that's governed by our target leverage profile of 1.5 to 2x, and the returns that we would otherwise generate by repurchasing our stock....

....MUCH MORE 

"Goldman Sachs finds individual investors are piling into leveraged semiconductor ETFs"

Things that make you think "Hmmm..."

From MarketWatch, April 30:

Forget buy the dip. Now retail investors are ‘trading the mania’ in chip stocks, and it’s about to get messy.

The Thursday morning setup is looking a bit messy as oil bounces around and as investors sift through earnings from the U.S. tech giants.

Qualcomm is standing out among the newsmakers of Wednesday’s after-hours crush. Despite a weak outlook, shares are rocketing higher on news the chip manufacturer will enter the lucrative custom silicon market and already has a hyperscaler lined up as a customer.

Qualcomm’s reception fits a recent narrative of resurgent semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index has surged 35% in April, marking its second-best month on record behind February 2000. That has some technical analysts warning that “parabolic moves” tend not to end well for investors.

More caution comes from our call of the day wherein Goldman Sachs’s trading desk discusses how retail investors have shifted from the old “buy the dip” approach to “trade the mania,” piling into riskier bets on chip stocks in particular.

Investors have embraced chip stocks on the view that as hyperscalers plan to spend billions on data centers, demand for AI chips will stay high.

Tearing a page out of the institutional-investor playbook, the retail crowd has been chasing momentum in that hot market sector, rather than the usual levered ETFs aimed at tracking and amplifying the moves of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq Composite, a team led by Gail Hafif told clients in a note late Wednesday.

Individual-investor participation in the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF,, and Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF, is now at the 97th and 99th percentiles, respectively, over five years, said Goldman. Those extreme bearish and bullish bets offer three times leverage either way on chip stocks....

....MUCH MORE

Now, as a general rule, the momo mamas aren't wrong to be enamored with momentum.

Of all the critters in the factor zoo (Fama-French 5 factor+momo) the momentum factor is the one most likely to put food on the table and cash in the bank. However! Trend>Friend>Bend>End means you are going to be trading which means you are going to have fees and slippage grinding against you.

Furthermore, using a triple-leveraged vehicle implies you had better be manipulating the market to get the timing of the turns correct. Otherwise just the variance will wipe you out, leaving aside whether you are right or wrong on the directional moves. 

PCE Inflation: "Core inflation rate hit 3.2% in March, as expected; GDP grew 2% in first quarter"

From CNBC, April 30:

Consumers faced escalating prices in March as the Iran war sent oil soaring and created a new level of challenges for the Federal Reserve.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, pushing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.2%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The readings matched the Dow Jones consensus estimates.

Including the volatile gas and groceries components saw higher readings, with the monthly gain at 0.7% and the annual rate hitting 3.5%, also in line with forecasts....

....MORE 

And at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 30:

Personal Income and Outlays, March 2026  

Table 2.8.11. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago 

Table 2.8.7. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Prices for Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product, Monthly 

"Electrical current might be the key to a better cup of coffee"

Electricity, is there anything it can't do?

From ArsTechnica, April 28:

University of Oregon scientists repurposed battery-testing tool to better measure coffee’s flavor profile

University of Oregon chemist Christopher Hendon loves his coffee—so much so that studying all the factors that go into creating the perfect cuppa constitutes a significant area of research for him. His latest project: discovering a novel means of measuring the flavor profile of coffee simply by sending an electrical current through a sample beverage. The results appear in a new paper published in the journal Nature Communications.

We’ve been following Hendon’s work for several years now. For instance, in 2020, Hendon’s lab helped devise a mathematical model for brewing the perfect cup of espresso, over and over, while minimizing waste. The flavors in espresso derive from roughly 2,000 different compounds that are extracted from the coffee grounds during brewing. So it can be challenging for baristas to reproduce the same perfect cup over and over again.

That’s why Hendon and his colleagues built their model for a more easily measurable property known as the extraction yield (EY): the fraction of coffee that dissolves into the final beverage. That, in turn, depends on controlling water flow and pressure as the liquid percolates through the coffee grounds. The model is based on how lithium ions propagate through a battery’s electrodes, similar to how caffeine molecules dissolve from coffee grounds.

Three years later, Hendon’s team turned their attention to studying why the microscopic clumps form in the first place, particularly at very fine grind levels. The culprit is static electricity arising from the fracturing and friction between the beans during grinding. Hendon thought reducing that static would be a good way to eliminate those clumps. The technical term is triboelectricity, which arises from the accumulation of opposite electric charges on the surfaces of two different materials due to contact with each other.

A similar charge build-up also occurs during volcanic eruptions. So Hendon collaborated with volcanologists Josef Dufek and Joshua Méndez Harper, who were regulars at the same local coffee house and had noted striking similarities between the science of coffee and plumes of volcanic ash, magma, and water....

....MUCH MORE  

 If interested see also:

Quanta Services

GE Vernova 

"Quanta Services soars 10% on earnings beat and raised outlook" (PWR)

In pre-market trade the stock is up $58.35 (+9.29%) $686.68. 

From Investing.com, April 30: 

NEW YORK - Quanta Services Inc. (NYSE:PWR) reported first-quarter results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations and raised its full-year financial outlook, sending shares up 10%.

The infrastructure services provider posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.68, beating the analyst consensus of $2.06 by $0.62. Revenue reached $7.87 billion, surpassing the $6.99 billion estimate and representing strong double-digit growth from the prior year. The company also reported GAAP diluted EPS of $1.45 and net income attributable to common stock of $220.6 million.

Quanta raised its fiscal 2026 guidance substantially across key metrics. The company now expects full-year EPS of $13.55 to $14.25, with a midpoint of $13.90 that exceeds the analyst consensus of $13.11. Revenue guidance was set at $34.7 billion to $35.2 billion, with the $34.95 billion midpoint above the $33.31 billion consensus estimate.

"Quanta delivered an exceptional first quarter, reflected by strong double-digit growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share, along with record backlog of $48.5 billion," said Duke Austin, President and Chief Executive Officer....

....MORE 

Here's the press release:

QUANTA SERVICES REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2026 RESULTS 

But wait! There's even more!

https://investors.quantaservices.com/news-events/ir-calendar/detail/20260430-first-quarter-2026-earnings-conference-call 

Stock performance through yesterday's close:

YTD Return

PWR
49.00%
S&P 500

4.24%

 

1-Year Return
PWR
115.20%
S&P 500 

28.33%

3-Year Return
PWR
272.00%
S&P 500 
71.15%

Capital Markets: "The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The North American market understood yesterday’s Fed statement and the three dissents in favor of a neutral bias as a hawkish hold and rallied the dollar in response. Follow-through selling today has been minimal and the greenback is sporting a softer profile. The strongest currency today is the Japanese yen, which had fallen to its lowest level since July 2024, before heightened Japanese verbal intervention. The threats of material intervention were successful, and the dollar reversed lower from the JPY160.70 area to fray JPY159.00 in the European morning. 

Meanwhile, reports suggesting that the US is considering new military strikes on Iran amid the stalled talks after President Trump reject Iran’s proposal. However, after the initial flurry that lifted oil futures to new highs, both the June WTI and July Brent contracts have reversed lower and ahead of the North American open, both are off around half-of-a-dollar. The outcome of the BOE and ECB meetings are awaited. Both are expected to attempt a hawkish hold.  Lastly, on the back of strong capex, the US reports its first look at Q1 GDP today. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey is for a 2.3% annualized pace, while the Atlanta Fed’s tracker is almost half of it (1.2%)....

....MUCH MORE 

"Iranians Feel the Pain as Their Economy Descends Into a Death Spiral"

 From the Wall Street Journal, April 29:

Businesses are closing, unemployment is soaring and food is increasingly unaffordable

War has imposed a heavy cost on Iran’s economy: more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses.

The question is how much more pain Iran’s leaders are willing to tolerate as they try to negotiate a favorable end to the war.

Talks between the U.S. and Iran have stalled. American officials are betting that Iran will soon crack because of the deepening economic crisis. Iran is betting the U.S. will crack first and end its blockade of Iranian ports to calm global markets and bring down American gasoline prices.

To contain the economic fallout, the Iranian government has raised wages, subsidized basic goods and handed out cash to the poor. But authorities are confronting a level of hardship not seen in decades, according to residents.

“It is an authoritarian regime, and it can claim that resisting economic pressure is a question of national pride,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Middle East Institute. At the same time, “as the money dries up because of the blockade, we may find that more and more folks have no choice but to mobilize politically,” he said.

At the center of the fight is the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

Iran closed the strait early on in the conflict, effectively using the waterway to hold the world economy hostage. The U.S. responded with a naval blockade of its own, dealing a devastating blow to Iran’s already-battered economy.

Daily struggles
Government revenue has dried up just as the needs of its population are rising.

The war has thrown around one million people out of work directly and another million indirectly, according to early estimates cited by Gholamhossein Mohammadi, an official at Iran’s Labor and Social-Affairs ministry. That is a significant portion of the roughly 25 million people who are normally employed in Iran.

The cost of living has soared, with the annual inflation rate reaching 67% in the month through mid-April from the same period a year earlier, according to Iran’s central bank. The subsidized price of red meat, which was mostly imported through sea routes, has gone up to the equivalent of around $3.60 a pound, beyond the reach of most in a country where the minimum wage is around $130 a month.

Iran’s national currency on Wednesday hit a record low of 1.8 million rial to the dollar.

“Living is not affordable anymore,” said Mahdi Ghodsi of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. “Iran is at its weakest point.”

Businesses across the country—from manufacturers to retailers—are closing, residents said. The lack of steel and other raw materials is hampering production in various industries. Electronic goods, which are mostly imported, are in short supply and expensive.

War damage
Iran’s economic meltdown predates the war, crippled by years of U.S. and international sanctions. The collapse in the value of the local currency and fast-rising prices triggered mass antigovernment protests at the turn of the year. The regime crushed the protests with lethal force. The economic woes that underpinned the protests have worsened since the start of the war, raising the possibility that the unrest could flare up again.

The bombing campaign by Israel and the U.S. caused extensive physical damage to roads, ports and residential buildings. It also hit vital industries, including the country’s main steelmaking and petrochemical factories. Iranian state media estimates that postwar reconstruction could cost around $270 billion, a crippling sum for a country with an annual gross domestic product last year of $341 billion. 

Before the blockade, most of Iran’s oil exports and most of its imports—from food to pharmaceuticals to raw materials—transited through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, Iran is struggling to ship oil and other commodities that generated most of its revenue, shipping records show. As recently as March, Iran exported 1.85 million barrels of crude oil a day, worth $191 million at international prices. There is no evidence any Iranian oil cargo has breached the U.S. blockade and reached Chinese customers or other buyers, said Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior oil analyst at the commodities-data company Kpler.

Iran is pushing for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an indication of how vital it is to its economy. Tehran has presented regional mediators with an offer to stop its attacks in the strait in exchange for a full end to the war and a lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Tehran wants to postpone discussions about Iran’s nuclear program.

“The government sees the end of the war as the beginning of a new problem: having to cope with a disillusioned, impoverished citizenry,” said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics who studies Iran at Virginia Tech. “If crude exports resume, they have some cushion. Iran can project an upward path to recovery, and people can say: these are terrible times, but we will recover.”

Coping mechanisms
The Iranian government has taken steps to contain the economic fallout. It has increased the minimum wage and raised the salary of government employees and continued to subsidize the price of bread, fuel and other essential goods. It is giving cash handouts to the poor and issuing coupons for the purchase of rice, chicken, cooking oil and other goods. It drew from strategic reserves of household staples to soften the economic blow for regular people.

The government has appealed to Iranians to do their part by limiting their consumption of water, electricity and gas. Tehran residents were encouraged to drive less and use public transportation instead....

....MORE

That last paragraph sounds like California. 

On April 6 the Journal published "The Next Target for the U.S. and Israel Is Iran’s Economy"

TEL AVIV—The U.S. and Israel have a set of targets lined up in Iran designed to cripple the country’s economy and ensure the regime’s recovery from this war is long and painful.

And as noted introducing what was then an Iran International exclusive, April 27:

"Iran's top security council holds meeting over fears of renewed protests"
Reaching back into the mists of time, December 2025 - January 2026. Iran was already reeling from the water crisis and the collapse of the currency. And then Israel and the U.S. attacked....

The Iranian Internet down-detector has the system running at 4/10% of capacity.

note: the down-detector says the current outage is 14 days old. That is only because there was a brief surge of activity one day in mid-April. Sans that the Iranian internet has been down since February 28.

Oil: "Why UAE's OPEC exit is a blow to Saudi Arabia"

From Deutsche-Welle, April 29:

The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC to pump more oil on its own terms. The break strips Saudi Arabia of a key partner and adds to growing uncertainty over the cartel's future.

Why has the UAE decided to quit OPEC now? 
OPEC, the global cartel of oil-producing nations, operates a quota system that limits how much oil each member can produce.

For years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has clashed with Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, over these quotas. The UAE has invested heavily to expand its oil industry and grow its market share, but OPEC limits have repeatedly held it back.

Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told the New York Times on Tuesday: "The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and [the] UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups."

The UAE is now betting it can sell more oil once the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz crisis ends, both in the medium and the longer term. Analysts, meanwhile, see the move as a calculated step by a producer ready to act independently.

"Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group's [OPEC] hands," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at research consultancy Rystad Energy.

"With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table."

The UAE, which joined OPEC in 1967 through Abu Dhabi, will leave both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, on May 1.

The UAE currently produces roughly 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) under quotas but holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million bpd, Reuters news agency reported. Plans call for a hike in output toward 5 million bpd by next year.

How does the UAE's exit weaken OPEC and Saudi Arabia’s leadership? 
The UAE's exit removes one of the few OPEC members with meaningful spare oil capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia unable to easily share the burden of output adjustments.

The Gulf Kingdom has traditionally managed oil prices by cutting its own production and enforcing discipline across the group. With the UAE gone, Saudi Arabia will have to rely much more on its own oil production cuts to stabilize prices.

This will make defending oil prices more expensive and less effective for Riyadh. It also weakens the Kingdom's ability to manage and discipline the wider OPEC group.

David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at the London-based Capital Economics research house, called the move "the thin end of the wedge," warning in an analysis its website that "the ties binding OPEC members together have loosened."....

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"Once-unthinkable 200 yen coming into market view"

A twofer. First up Asia Times via MENAFN, April 7:

TOKYO - The Japanese capital is seeing a bull market in deja vu as policymakers man the battle stations against speculators dumping the yen.

With the Japanese currency on the verge of slipping to the psychologically important 160 to the dollar level, Ministry of Finance officials are pulling out all the stops to keep it from falling further.

Good luck with that, as traders buzz about the yen plummeting to 170, 180 or even the almost-unthinkable 200 level.

This foreign exchange battle comes at the worst possible moment for Japan, which is already grappling with stagflation. With crude oil around US$115 per barrel, Japan's $4.2 trillion economy is uniquely at risk as the Iran war goes awry. Roughly 95% of Japan's oil comes from the Middle East.

As the yen ratchets lower, the risk of higher imported inflation ticks higher. This dynamic worsens as high energy costs food, transportation, and a wide range of industrial goods.

Yet Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has another problem - one nearly three decades in the making. Since around 1997, the most consistent policy across the 15 premierships has been prioritizing a weak yen through quantitative easing.

This week, 10-year JGB yields once again returned to 1999 highs as so-called“bong vigilantes” have Tokyo squarely in their sights. That has Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama pledging to work with G7 countries as the war in Iran sends global bond yields skyward.

Katayama notes that G7 finance ministers and central bankers have“shared views that developments in the Middle East and sharp fluctuations in oil prices are having a broad impact on markets.”

She added that“our stance has been that we will continue to stay in close contact (with G7 officials ) and ensure that we clearly communicate our message.”

Yet the spike in JGB yields also reflects fears about Takaichi's pre-Iran war fiscal priorities, including budget-busting tax cuts....

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And from Nikkei Asia, April 30: 

Yen breaches 160 to dollar; JGB yields surge to highest in nearly 3 decades
Hormuz blockade fuels higher oil prices and inflation fears, putting pressure on BOJ 

TOKYO -- The yen weakened past a psychologically significant threshold of 160 to the dollar, and long-term Japanese government bond (JGB) yields surged to 2.5% on Thursday as fears grew over the consequences of inflation fueled by a deepening energy crisis brought on by the prolonged war in the Middle East.

In early-morning trading, the yen was down 0.4% at around 160.17 against the dollar. The Japanese currency fell to 160.48 per dollar during Wednesday trading in New York, its lowest level in 21 months as investors sought haven assets like the greenback.

The depreciation has raised speculation that Japan's financial authorities might intervene to prop up the yen.

The dollar rallied amid a dearth of signs that U.S.-Iran tensions might be easing and as repercussions from the war are expected to complicate monetary policy management.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signaled that the Strait of Hormuz blockade will continue until an agreement is reached with Iran. He told U.S. news outlet Axios, "The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can't have a nuclear weapon."

The president also posted on social media the same day, saying Iran "can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!"

The globe has had its supply of energy disrupted since the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran broke out on Feb. 28.

Crude prices spiked anew on Thursday, with Brent climbing to its highest price since 2022, up over 7%, while those for West Texas Intermediate were higher by 6%.

Dollar buying also accelerated as more investors expect elevated oil prices linked to the Iran war to delay U.S. interest rate cuts. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in its most divided decision since 1992....

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If interested see also April 28's Capital Markets: "Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen" 

"China pushes EU capitals to scrap 'Made in Europe' law or face retaliation"

From EuroNews, April 29:

 As EU countries debate the European Commission’s proposal, Beijing is urging national governments to abandon the planned law. Otherwise, China says it will take countermeasures.

China has called on EU member states to revise the bloc’s proposed “Made in Europe” legislation, according to Suo Peng, trade and economy minister at China’s mission in Brussels.

The European Union is currently debating the draft, which was unveiled by the European Commission in March and aims to impose stricter conditions on foreign companies seeking access to EU public procurement and investment opportunities.

The proposal — widely interpreted as targeting Chinese firms — has already drawn a warning from Beijing. Earlier this week, China’s commerce ministry said it would consider retaliatory measures if the EU proceeds without significant changes.

“Chinese embassies in EU member states have conveyed China’s comments and suggestions to the governments of their hosting countries,” Peng told journalists in Brussels.

He added that if the EU “insists on this punishment and treats China’s enterprises in a discriminatory manner,” Beijing would be forced to respond with countermeasures.

Public procurement rules and investment limits 
The so-called Industrial Accelerator Act would, if adopted by EU governments and the European Parliament, prioritise European-made products in public procurement in sectors considered strategic, including automotive, green technologies, and energy-intensive industries such as aluminium and steel....

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Earnings: Amazon Beats, Stock Retreats (AMZN)

From Investor's Business Daily, April 29:

Amazon Beats Expectations, Reports Strong Cloud Growth. But Stock Slides 

Amazon (AMZN) stock slipped late Wednesday after the tech giant reported first-quarter results that exceeded expectations, helped by strong cloud growth. The company's guidance for the current quarter was mixed.

Amazon said that it earned $2.78 per share for the March-ended quarter, up 74% from a year earlier. Helped by pre-tax gains from Amazon's Anthropic investment, the EPS beat the $1.63 per share that analysts polled by FactSet were forecasting. Sales increased 17% to $181.5 billion, compared to analyst estimates of $177.3 billion.

Amazon Web Services revenue increased 28% to $37.6 billion, compared to analyst expectations for 26.2% growth from the cloud business. Revenue grew 23.6% in the fourth-quarter and 20.2% in the third-quarter.

Investors have been closely watching AWS growth out of fear that Amazon is losing its market-leading cloud position to AI-driven gains by Microsoft (MSFT) and Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL)....

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The stock is down $5.29 (-2.01%)  

Among the other hyperscalers reporting today:

META is down $44.60 (-6.67%)

MSFT is down $10.07 (-2.37)

Google is up $19.60 (+5.64%)

Conference calls ongoing.

"Amazon earnings preview: Big AI deals meet a $200B spending binge" (AMZN; MSFT)

Two from Seattle's own, Geekwire (also serving Redmond): 

April 28

Amazon reports first-quarter earnings Wednesday with more signs than ever that its cloud business is in demand, including a $244 billion revenue backlog, blockbuster deals with Meta,  OpenAI and Anthropic, and a custom chip business that doubled in a matter of months.

The problem: a $200 billion capital spending plan, largely dedicated to new AI infrastructure, that drained Amazon’s free cash flow and sank its stock 10% last quarter. 

Here’s a preview of the key numbers and storylines to watch.

Core expectations: Wall Street expects Amazon to report about $177 billion in first-quarter revenue, up roughly 14% from a year ago, with earnings of $1.65 per share. That’s up just 4%, reflecting the growing depreciation costs from the company’s infrastructure buildout.

Amazon’s guidance for first-quarter operating income ranges from $16.5 billion to $21.5 billion — a $5 billion spread that reflects uncertainty around tariff impacts on its retail business and about $1 billion in new costs from its satellite internet project, Amazon Leo.

AWS growth: But the main event is Amazon Web Services, where analysts expect about $36.8 billion in revenue, up nearly 26% from a year ago. AWS growth has been accelerating for three straight quarters (from 17% to 20% to 24%) and investors are looking for that to continue....

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And April 27:

Microsoft earnings preview: After a $357B wipeout, tech giant gets another chance 

"Iran's top security council holds meeting over fears of renewed protests"

Reaching back into the mists of time, December 2025 - January 2026. Iran was already reeling from the water crisis and the collapse of the currency. And then Israel and the U.S. attacked.

From Iran International, April 27: 

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has held a meeting to address growing concerns among security agencies over a possible resurgence of protests, sources familiar with the discussions told Iran International.

The meeting, chaired by Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, was convened following internal assessments and intelligence reports warning of potential unrest in the coming days, the sources said.

According to information presented at the meeting, officials believe mounting economic hardship—driven by rising prices, unemployment, and damage to key industries such as petrochemicals and steel—could become the main trigger for renewed protests.

Security agencies reportedly presented a highly critical picture of Iran’s economy, highlighting widespread job losses linked to the shutdown of industrial units in the oil, petrochemical, and steel sectors, as well as the impact of prolonged internet disruptions.

Estimates shared during the meeting suggested that Iran’s economy may not be able to withstand more than six to eight weeks of a naval blockade. The blockade began on April 13, and around two weeks have now passed.

Another major concern raised was the near-total shutdown of production centers in key sectors, including oil, petrochemicals, and steel. According to the assessments, rebuilding these industries could take years.

Security officials also said internet shutdowns have left around 20% of the workforce dependent on online activity unemployed. They warned that, based on economic forecasts, an additional two million people could lose their jobs in the private sector by the end of spring.

In the financial sector, the closure of markets—including banks, the stock exchange, gold markets, and currency exchanges—has effectively halted economic activity, leaving real prices for goods unclear.

During the meeting, representatives of security bodies expressed particular concern over a possible call for protests by exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and the likelihood of his supporters taking to the streets.

Renewed protests inevitable

According to sources familiar with the meeting, security agencies concluded that public protests are inevitable, with the only uncertainty being the timing of their outbreak.

Calls for protests around International Workers’ Day have further heightened concerns among officials and were discussed during the council meeting.

Workers, retirees, teachers, and other wage-earning groups have repeatedly staged protests or issued statements over living conditions, delayed payments, job insecurity, and the suppression of independent labor organizations.

Ahead of International Workers’ Day, labor groups inside and outside Iran have again emphasized demands including wage increases, the release of detained labor activists, the repeal of repressive rulings, and the right to form independent unions....

....MORE 

Also at Iran International:

April 29 - Iran currency plunges as dollar crosses 1.8 million in open market 

April 29 - Iran taps reserves again as inflation bites and layoffs mount 

And a deep dive:

Iran’s Water Crisis: Mafia or Destruction by Design? 

Previously on the water mafia:

December 2025 - Iran by Slavoj Žižek: "When Communism Is the Only Option"

Possibly also of interest:

January 16 - "The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin"

April 14 - Iran's Economy Is Imploding, Central Bank Says Repairs Will Take A Decade

Capital Markets: "Oil Prices Advance Ahead of What Will likely be Powell's Last FOMC Meeting (as Chair)"

From Marc to Market:

There are two dominant issues today. First, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, but the blockade of Iran is an act of war, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked even if there are some reports that a few ships have managed to transit it. July Brent is at new contract highs and June WTI has approached last month’s record high. The higher energy prices and the broader disruption continue to underpin bond yields and have stalled the equity rally. Second, what looks like Powell’s last FOMC meeting (as chair) concludes later today. A hawkish hold is the most likely outcome, but as a consummate professional, Powell is unlikely to emphasize the forward guidance except to note its uncertainty due to the war. There is much interest whether he remains as governor. We would not be surprised if it remains unresolved at the end of the day. The Bank of Canada meets too, but with more economic slack, its hold may be less convincingly hawkish. 

In a speech to Congress yesterday, King Charles III urged the US to reject isolationism. This is a common meme, but it rings hollow. After bombing seven countries since the start of the last year, threatening to attack two NATO member, kidnapping the head of Venezuela and the war on Iran, there is nothing about US foreign policy that is “isolationist”. “Unilateralism” is a better description, and it is what has spurred talk that “trust” that underpinned the dollar’s role in the world economy has deteriorated....

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Mr. Powell should probably leave the Federal Reserve Board when his time as Chair is up. Remaining doesn't seem to add anything and would probably detract from the foci the board might otherwise exhibit. 

But maybe that's just me.  

On the other hand, if he doesn't leave and should the bond market face collapse in the next six months, with dissension as to what actions the Fed should take, I'll probably be back with a "neener-neener."

"GE Vernova Stock Gets a Downgrade. It’s Had an Incredible Run" (GEV)

The stock's daily moves, both up and down, are not for the faint-hearted: 

 

TradingView

That's a pretty big gap-up between April 21 and 22. (almost $85)

And the headline story from Al Root at Barron's, April 28: 

GE Vernova GEV -2.79% stock has had a tremendous run, leaving Wall Street analysts with choices: raise price targets, upgrade, or downgrade.

BNP Paribas opted for the latter.

GE Vernova stock hit new 52-week highs this past week after reporting strong first-quarter results. Shares jumped nearly 14% on Wednesday. Coming into the week, Vernova stock was up 209% over the past 12 months, boosted by red-hot demand for power generation equipment.

Electricity demand is rising faster than it has in a generation, thanks in part to power-hungry AI data centers being built around the country.

Wall Street reacted to GE Vernova’s quarter by raising price targets. The average target is currently about $1,179 a share, up from more than $210, or 22%, from $968 before earnings.

The stock’s rise has also brought a couple of downgrades. The latest is from BNP Paribas analyst Moses Sutton, who cut his rating to Hold from Buy. Things are good, but GE Vernova has essentially sold out its turbine capacity through the end of the decade, making further growth more difficult.

“The journey from [a 2024] $40 billion market cap to greater than $300 billion was enabled by GE Vernova continuously upping the bar—contracting out one to two years to four to five years of expanded gas turbine capacity at rising prices,” wrote Sutton. “With capacity 90%-plus contracted through 2030, it’s becoming difficult to underwrite [stock] momentum….”

His new target price is $1,190, up from $765. Shares were below that latter level as recently as February....

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Also at Barron's, Friday April 24:

GE Vernova Gets Another Price Target Hike. Wall Street Is Chasing the Stock.  

That was the day after GEV set its all-time intraday and closing high prices.

Pretty good timing for both Mr. Root's headline comments. 

"Big Chinese tech firms scramble to secure Huawei AI chips after DeepSeek V4 launch, sources say"

A Reuters exclusive, April 28/29:

• Demand for Huawei's Ascend 950 AI chips surges
• Surge in demand comes in the wake of DeepSeek V4 release
• Big tech firms including ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba reach out about new orders

Demand for Huawei's Ascend 950 AI chips has surged following the release of DeepSeek's V4 artificial intelligence model that runs on the Shenzhen-based tech firm's chips, with ​major Chinese internet firms rushing to secure orders, three people familiar with the matter said.

China's biggest internet firms including ByteDance, Tencent (0700.HK), and Alibaba (9988.HK), are reaching ‌out to Huawei about new chip orders, said the sources, who are familiar with the procurement discussions.

Companies specializing in cloud computing and graphics processing unit (GPU) rental services are also scrambling to place orders, two of the sources added, without providing the names of the firms.

 

While the 950PR significantly outperforms Nvidia's H20 chip - the most powerful chip Nvidia was permitted to sell in China until Beijing blocked its import last year - it still trails the ​American firm's H200, a more advanced processor that has been caught up in regulatory limbo.

 

Despite U.S. and Chinese approvals for exports, the H200 has yet to be shipped to ​China as Beijing and Washington remain at odds over the conditions governing its sale, providing an opportunity for Huawei to sell its ⁠semiconductors.

 

The 950PR represents a breakthrough for Huawei after years of struggling to win large orders from China's tech sector. Customer testing of the chip went well earlier this year, ​with firms including ByteDance and Alibaba planning orders after samples were distributed in January, Reuters reported in March.

 

Huawei, ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent did not respond to Reuters requests for ​comments.

DEEPSEEK FRENZY
The scramble for Huawei's chips underscores how DeepSeek's V4 release last week has turbocharged demand for domestic Chinese AI hardware as U.S. export controls continue to restrict access to Nvidia's most advanced processors. It is also an endorsement of the performance of Huawei's chips so far....

....MUCH MORE 

Our intro to September 2025's Chips: "Huawei lays out multi-year AI accelerator roadmap and claims it makes Earth’s mightiest clusters": 

This is the one Nvidia's Jensen Huang thinks about. 

If interested see also July 2025's "The Secret History of China’s Most Powerful Company" 

Meanwhile In Oslo: "Jamie Dimon warns of ‘some kind of bond crisis’ ahead as global debt risks build"

From CNBC, April 28: 

• Jamie Dimon warned a bond crisis is likely, saying rising global government debt, including in the U.S., could lead to “some kind of bond crisis” if policymakers don’t act proactively.
• Risks are building across multiple fronts. Dimon pointed to geopolitics, oil prices and widening deficits as a potentially dangerous mix that could trigger market stress.
• In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon addressed risks he saw in the credit cycle and the pace of artificial intelligence adoption and his insights into setting corporate culture.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned that rising government debt levels could trigger a crisis in the bond market, urging policymakers to act before markets force their hand.

Dimon’s statement was in response to a question about whether he was worried about rising levels of government debt “around the world and in your country.”

“The way it’s going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it,” Dimon said at an investment conference held by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world.

“I’m not that worried we’ll be able to deal with it,” Dimon said. “I just think maturity should say you should deal with it, as opposed to let it happen.”

Dimon, who runs the world’s largest bank by market cap, said history has shown that today’s growing mix of risks could combine in unpredictable ways. While the timing is uncertain, failing to address those pressures increases the odds that adjustment comes after upheaval rather than deliberate policy moves.

“The level of things that are adding to the risk column are high, like geopolitics, oil, government deficits,” Dimon said. “They may go away, but they may not, and we don’t know what confluence of events causes the problem.”

A bond crisis would likely mean a sudden jump in yields and a breakdown in market liquidity, where investors rush to sell and buyers recede, typically forcing central banks to step in as buyers of last resort.

A recent example is the 2022 U.K. gilt crisis, when yields on the U.K. government bonds surged and the Bank of England had to step in to stabilize the market....

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Capital Markets: "Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen"

From Marc to Market:

The markets seem nervous. The dollar is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. June WTI, which was at $82.60 on April 17, is now pushing against $100. July Brent, which was at $86.50, is now approaching $105. Both are up for the sixth session of the past seven. Equities and bonds are mostly lower. Gold and silver are offering no haven today and are at 2–3-week lows.

The bevy of this week’s central bank meets began with the Bank of Japan. Initially the 6-3 vote to keep rates steady seemed a bit hawkish but Governor Ueda failed to deliver an unambiguously hawkish message and the yen reversed lower. The market has not given up on the JPY160 level. Tomorrow, the Bank of Canada, and the Federal Reserve meeting. And arguably more momentous, Kevin Warsh will likely be confirmed as the next Fed chair, ushering in a new era after the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell continuity....

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