Tuesday, April 30, 2024

"Thomson Reuters Could Be the Best AI Stock You’ve Never Considered"

It could have been the Financial Times. More after the jump.

From Barron's, April 27/29:

“Before Google was in the search business, we were in the search business,” CEO Steve Hasker told Barron’s.

You may think that Thomson Reuters is in the news business, and that’s true as far as it goes—but it doesn’t go nearly far enough.

News, i.e., the Reuters part of this Canadian company, accounts for only some 10% of the company’s revenue. The other 90% comes from data businesses like Westlaw, UltraTax, and ONESOURCE, which is fortuitous, because, as British mathematician Clive Humby famously opined in 2006, “data is the new oil.” In that case, perhaps it’s understandable that Thomson Reuters has been on a remarkable—though somewhat under-the-radar—run, with its stock far outpacing the market over the past decade.

Just please don’t call Thomson Reuters a media company. 

“We’re a tech stock, not a media stock,” Thomson Reuters CEO Steve Hasker says quickly when I suggest the latter. “The distinctions have been pretty clear in terms of performance. We take unique and proprietary content, add [artificial intelligence] and machine learning, and we deliver it through best-of-breed software.”

In fact, some of Thomson Reuters’ financials and market action of its stock seem to back Hasker up. Thomson Reuters did $6.8 billion in revenue last year and has a $69 billion market capitalization. Its stock has gained 26% in the past six months, versus 21% for the market. The share price hovers around $154, and BMO analyst Tim Casey rates the stock Outperform with a $165 price target. Shares trade for 43.6 times Casey’s 2024 earnings per share estimate of $3.53—very much a tech valuation, no?

“Thomson Reuters offers a compelling mix of organic growth and free cash flow conversion with a demonstrated track record of returning capital to shareholders,” Casey wrote to me in an email. “Its core businesses have high barriers to entry, and AI represents an attractive growth opportunity.”

One key reason why data is becoming ever more valuable is that the corporate world is becoming ever more complex. Banking on that trend, —an underpinning of Thomson Reuters’ strategy—has turned out to be a damned good business. “This idea of the complexity associated with compliance, [gives us] a very significant tailwind,” says Hasker, an affable Aussie and recovered McKinsey consultant who also ran Hollywood talent agency CAA and was a top executive at measurement company Nielsen Holdings. 

“The number of laws, tax and accounting regulations, the complexity of audits, entirely new forms of regulation and governance around [environmental, social, and governance concerns], and climate, this is something that just gets ever more complex,” Hasker says. “It’s not a realistic or scalable option for companies to just add more headcount to navigate that environment. They have to rely on technology.”

A bit of intricacy comes with the territory at Thomson Reuters itself, which is the product of Thomson, a family-owned Canadian newspaper empire founded in Timmins, Ontario, in 1934, and the London-based wire service Reuters, which German-British entrepreneur Paul Reuter established in 1851. 

(Some Reuters trivia: Paul Reuter employed carrier pigeons and later was an early adopter of the telegraph, allowing his company to become the first news source in Europe to report Abraham Lincoln’s assassination in 1865. Paul Reuter’s granddaughter-in-law—Marguerite, Baroness de Reuter—died in 2009 at the age of 96 as the last member of the the Reuter family.)

Reuters, which remains a global bastion of trustworthy, non-partisan news, was bought by Thomson in 2008. The Thomson family, Canada’s richest, owns just under 70% of Thomson Reuters via its investment company Woodbridge. The remaining balance is traded on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges.

And then there’s this slightly complex transaction: In 2018, Thomson Reuters sold 55% of its financial and risk analysis business, which competes with Bloomberg and FactSet, to Blackstone for $20 billion in cash, renaming it Refinitiv along the way. Three years later, Blackstone and Thomson Reuters sold Refinitiv, whose name has since been retired, to the London Stock Exchange Group for $27 billion in LSEG stock. Since then, Thomson Reuters and Blackstone have been selling down their stakes in LSEG....

....MUCH MORE

As recounted by FT Alphaville's founder and first editor, accompanied by Bryce Elder playing the straightest straight man since vaudeville.

December 3, 2015 

For our younger readers, here's Mr. Subliminal on Donald Trump cheating on his wife Ivana in 1990:


Comedian

And here's FT Alphaville's editor, Paul Murphy,

 
Hard-bitten journalist

on former FT Alphaville owner Pearson and its stock, Dec. 1, the day the Financial Times was handed over to Nikkei, while appearing to be having a normal conversation with Alphavillein Bryce Elder:

...PM
(So here’s our advice on the stock at 832p….)
PM
Run )
BE
...Today, though, the message is dovish. So we’re all choosing to forget about 2016.
PM
Scarper )
PM
Get out )
PM
Bin it )
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PM
( You don’t think another profit warning is coming? Oh course another profit warning is coming! )
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PM
( And I can tell you it’s a screaming sell. )
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PM
( I can tell you what happens next…)
PM
( Having focused the business down and down and down so that it’s pure corporatised education…)
-------
PM
( And with corporatised education, er, falling slightly out of fashion…)
-------
PM
( The next effort will be to slash costs — slashing with a blunt knife. A panic. )
-------
PM
( My guess is 15 per cent of the workforce will go. )
-------
PM
( Across the board. )
PM
(except not in the boardroom, of course )
PM
(It’s a lucky escape for us, cos the 15 per cent cut would have hit us as well. 100 journo jobs would have gone. )
BE
Is that enough on banks? Actually, Goldman too. Just because.
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PM
(If you look back to the late 90s, the FT had all the bits to construct Bloomgerg. )
PM
( Had a world class consumer offering in the form of the paper )
PM
(But it also had a newswire, and an online markets business — Market Watch.)
BE
Should we move on to other matters?
11:22AM
PM
(It had data, in the form of IDC)
PM
(Had Extel. Had what became factiva.)
PM
(Had a huge EM news business.)
BE
Okay …………. I think I have to do a quick bit of de-RAW here.
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BE
Coincidentally, we were chasing the same story from a slightly different angle.
BE
The rumour that reached us was that National Grid was working on a bid of around $45 a share for ITC …
PM
(People here complained of a lack of investment from Pearson. Investment??? They were sucking the life-blood out of the thing. )

---------
BE
… However, that would all appear to be very, very premature..
BE
What we can say with some confidence is that National Grid’s in the ITC auction process, which kicked off a week ago …
BE
But NG only appointed a new CEO at the start of the month, and is in transition between the old guy and the new guy for the rest of the year.
BE
And NG’s balance sheet doesn’t make ~$7bn-ish deals look very easy.
BE
So. If National Grid’s involved …
BE
… It’s much more likely to be in there to look at the numbers of a rival, rather than to launch an offer.
PM
(Sure, there was one short period, during the dot comedy, that the FT was allowed to expand. It was a disaster, timing wise. But Pearson made up all the associated losses with one disposal — Market Watch. That covered everything.)
BE
Also, note, there’s no shortage of potential bidders. It’s a crowded process.
PM
(Anyway, ive said enough. We’re under new ownership now. )
PM
Sell Pearson )
BE
Also likely to be in there are Berkshire Energy, Iberdrola’s Avangrid, Hydro One, NextEra Energy, American Electric Power ….

...MUCH MORE