A bit early in the season for an inventory build eh wut?
From BarChart, January 29:
February Nymex natural gas (NGG24) on Monday closed -0.222 (-8.19%).
On Monday, nat-gas prices plunged on the outlook for above-normal U.S. temperatures to weigh on heating demand for nat-gas. Also, an extended outage at an LNG export terminal in Texas threatens to limit U.S. nat-gas exports and boost domestic supplies. Maxar Technologies said Monday that widespread above-normal temperatures are expected for the eastern half of the U.S. from Feb 8-12.
Nat-gas prices are under pressure after the Freeport LNG nat-gas export terminal in Texas announced that it is shutting one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of one of the units will limit U.S. nat-gas exports and increase U.S. nat-gas supplies.
Lower-48 state dry gas production Monday was 104.6 bcf/day (+4.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 93.8 bcf/day (-3.7% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Monday were 14.3 bcf/day (+11.3% w/w), according to BNEF.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 55% chance the current El Nino weather pattern will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and weighing on nat-gas prices. AccuWeather said El Nino will limit snowfall across Canada this season in addition to causing above-normal temperatures across North America....
....MUCH MORE
An interesting situation. Depending on how the equities act over the next few weeks this may be setting up an odd little pair trade, long U.S. natural gas producers, short U.S. insurers and/or international reinsurance companies.
More to come next month.
