Saturday, November 23, 2024

"Baidu’s supercheap robotaxis should scare the hell out of the US"

From The Verge, November 22:

Apollo Go’s sixth-generation driverless car is here.

Baidu’s robotaxi division, Apollo Go, just rolled out its latest robotaxi across multiple cities in China, and if stakeholders in the US aren’t nervous yet, they should be.

The RT6 is the sixth generation of Apollo Go’s driverless vehicle, which made its official debut in May 2024. It’s a purpose-built, Level 4 autonomous vehicle, meaning it’s built without the need for a human driver. And here’s the thing that should make US competitors nervous: adopting a battery-swapping solution, the price for one individual RT6 is “under $30,000,” Baidu CEO Robin Li said in an earnings call.

“All the strengths just mentioned above are driving us forward, paving the way to validate our business model,” Li added. 

With Alphabet’s Waymo operating in multiple cities in the US and Baidu deploying hundreds of vehicles in China, the world is now getting its first taste of an autonomous future. These vehicles are geofenced, meaning they can only operate in a select geographic area. And sure, they occasionally get confused or block traffic. But they’re real, and they’re growing in number.

But it’s Baidu’s achievements in cost-effectiveness that should have Waymo and other robotaxi operators a little uncomfortable. Because while the technology is growing more mature, the economics of a robotaxi business are still very much unproven.

We still don’t know the net effect of Baidu’s cost improvements. But bringing down the upfront cost of each individual vehicle to below $30,000 will go a long way toward improving the company’s unit economics, in which each vehicle brings in more money than it costs. There are still a lot of outstanding costs to consider, such as hardware depreciation and fleet maintenance, but from what Baidu is signaling, things are on the right track....

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Last spring it was announced that Baidu was partnering with Tesla in China. If interested see also:

"Tesla Stock Jumps As Elon Musk Scores FSD Wins In China Visit" (TSLA)

"Baidu’s Robotaxi Nears Profitability, While US Peers Are Stuck in Neutral"

"China’s Robotaxi Dreams Spark Economic Anxiety Over AI’s Threat"

"Baidu Launches New $28,000 Robotaxi In Wuhan"

Although we had two posts on the subject I may not have emphasized enough how big an opportunity Elon Musk's deals with Baidu actually are. First, some background:

China has a communist government, they pick winners and losers in business, that's what communists do....

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