From independent analyst Lyn Alden:
All the QE/QT/SOFR/repo stuff that's happening now is basically just like back in 2019, except now the Fed has a standing repo facility.
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) November 3, 2025
Both times, a rapid TGA refill was a big catalyst.
I have an explainer thread on the 2019 repo spike below, from back when it was happening. https://t.co/iDUhhHSkiu pic.twitter.com/F9oy9xu98x
For the X-less (like ourselves) here's Thread Reader with her 2019 series.
Readers who have been with us for a while know that I am deeply suspicious of that demand for liquidity in September 2019. From the intro to September 17's "Federal Reserve September 2019: The Day Repo Went Crazy AS The FOMC Was Meeting":
A six year retrospective on a very strange day.
The explanations proffered over the years do not satisfy.
As one example, the corporate tax payments due on the 16th of September were in the rear-view mirror on the 17th, the day of the spike, a fact pointed out by the authors of the Treasury's Office of Financial Research retrospective. There are other anomalies that we will look at over the coming days.
Here is the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' FRED database chart of 2025's action:
And a slightly different presentation at the New York Fed.