With the U.S., France and Germany all having decided on one final debt-fueled bubble, the last chapter will probably be war, a big one. Who fights who is yet to be determined but the early money is on some combination of India - Pakistan - China - Iran, the rising theocracy in Bangladesh, the three Western countries named above plus Britain, Russia and a couple future entrants, maybe on the African continent, maybe in the Americas.
From ZeroHedge, October 3:
Deutsche Bank sees the German economy on the verge of a turnaround. The debt-financed stimulus blaze is supposed to deliver it. Meanwhile, the collapse of the real economy is accelerating.
Storm clouds are gathering over Germany’s economy. 2025 will bring a new insolvency record – that much can already be predicted with certainty.
More than 22,000 companies are expected to file for bankruptcy, with at least 160,000 jobs lost according to the Institute for Labor Market Research (IAB). Given the accelerated wave of layoffs in recent months, the number could easily surpass 250,000.
Just days ago, the machinery sector – one of the most reliable leading indicators of the industrial heart of Germany – reported an expected 5% decline this year. Industry and construction are now producing 15–20% below their 2018 peak output. An economic collapse – no more, no less.
Deutsche Bank’s Miracle Forecast
At the very moment Baden-Württemberg reported a 0.8% contraction in the first half of 2025, Deutsche Bank forecasts 0.5% growth for the full year – and even a miraculous 2% boom in 2026. The bank’s economists actually speak of a “turning point.” Rising real incomes and, of course, the fat stimulus impulse from Chancellor Merz’s debt package are supposed to deliver the long-awaited breakout for Germany’s anemic economy.But these credit-fueled packages are well-known: they create short-term statistical flares, siphon resources from the free market, and make life harder for the real economy – the private sector that actually produces goods and services people demand. Politicians, meanwhile, can declare “jobs created” by including bureaucracy costs in GDP.
For politicians this is a badge of honor, whose planning horizon rarely extends beyond the next election. Serious economists know this statistical fraud and its disastrous consequences – which is why they are excluded from the public debate.
High on Credit
Deutsche Bank’s optimism may be a product of the gigantic debt packages unleashed by Berlin, bolstered by the ever-expanding EU subsidy machine in Brussels. Hundreds of billions in guarantees and direct grants flow into the green “transformation” – and banks are at the table. Deutsche Bank, which reported €5.3 billion in pretax profit in 2024, has long been a major player in the “green business.”Last year alone it brokered €93 billion in “sustainable finance and investments” – up 50% year-on-year. That shows two things: how deeply the big banks are now embedded in the state-guaranteed subsidy and regulatory architecture, and how predictable profits are in this sector – with the taxpayer ultimately carrying the risk.
Thus, Deutsche Bank’s “forecasts” read less like neutral analysis and more like an extension of the political narrative: this is not organic growth, but a debt-financed flash in the pan, distributed through banks. It fills the pockets of select interest groups – but not the shelves of the real economy.
Subsidy Rain, EU-Style
And those interest groups can expect a true deluge. Berlin plans to flood channels with up to €500 billion through its “Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality” special fund. In Brussels, Commission President von der Leyen unveiled her own seven-year plan – €2 trillion, with more than a third earmarked for “climate, energy and resilience.”....
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