From Marc to Market:
Overview: The US dollar continues to trade with a heavier bias. Today, the yen is leading the move on the back of renewed speculation that the BOJ may still hike rates this year. The Australian dollar has broken above $0.6600 to approach the year's high, while the Canadian dollar is the laggard, as is often the case in a soft US dollar environment. With the encouragement of the PBOC, which set the dollar’s reference rate at a new low for the year, the market has pushed the dollar below CNH7.1150 for the first time since last November. Emerging market currencies are mostly firmer against the greenback today. The fall of the French government has not caused much of a stir, after all, it is the fourth time in 20 months. French bonds are doing a bit better than Germany Bunds today and the French stock market is firmer, while Germany's Dax is nursing a 0.5% loss. The highlight of the North American session is the benchmark revisions to the establishment survey, where a sharp downward revision is expected.
Equities are mixed. Japanese and Chinese equities retreated, but the mainland shares that trade in Hong Kong, and the Hang Seng itself rallied more than 1%. So did Taiwan and South Korea. Australia and New Zealand indices slipped. Europe's Stoxx 600, which gained 0.5% yesterday is struggling today and is slightly lower, while US index futures are firm. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly firmer in Europe and the 10-year US Treasury yield is up a couple of basis points to push a little above 4.06%. Gold's run continues. It is up for the 10th session in the past 11 and reached a new record near $3660. October WTI is firm but within yesterday's range, which was in the pre-weekend range, hovering below $63 in the European morning.
USD: The Dollar Index trading softer through the North American session and slipped through the pre-weekend low slightly below 97.45 in late turnover. It is approached the upper end of a band of support 97.00-25. The multiyear low was recorded on July 1 just ahead of 96.35. Today's highlight is the BLS annual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey. Last year's revision took 818k from the 12-month job growth. The BLS estimates that in the 12-month through March (the extent of today's revisions) was 147k. This year's revision estimates range from about 550k to 900k, which is about 45k to 75k off per month on average. That said...
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Related, September 7:
"The Horns of a Dilemma: What’s a Central Bank to Do?"
From Thomas Hoenig, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City....
Economist Nouriel Roubini sees a ‘mini stagflationary shock’ coming in the second half of 2025