Trump Warns of Economic Disaster if Court Strikes Down Tariffs

That phrasing doesn't sound as terror-stricken as the Germans were over a possible beer shortage ahead of Oktoberfest 2012 and earlier in 2010:

Damit ist Eine Katastrophe Vorprogrammiert 

(This means a catastrophe is inevitable [It's a recipe for disaster]) 

And from the New York Times, August 13:

The president has crowed about the billions of dollars collected so far from tariffs. That money could be at risk if the White House loses the legal battle. 

The Trump administration’s top lawyers urged a federal court this week to uphold its sweeping global tariffs or risk “financial ruin,” warning that the United States could slip into an economic depression if an adverse ruling forces the government to refund billions of dollars in duties.

While experts broadly disputed that a losing verdict would trigger a calamity of that magnitude, many said the government’s extraordinary assertions underscored the risks looming over President Trump, who has widened the scope of his punishing trade war even while its legal basis remains unsettled.

At the heart of the wrangling is a 1977 law that empowers the president to impose trade embargoes and sanctions in response to economic emergencies. The word tariff appears nowhere in that statute, but Mr. Trump has nonetheless invoked its powers as the basis for his withering levies, including the steep taxes he imposed on imports from more than 90 countries last Thursday.

For Mr. Trump, the worst-case scenario would be a resounding defeat at the hands of the Supreme Court, which is likely to take up one of the pending cases. If the justices rule overwhelmingly against the president, the decision could halt tariff collections while triggering “a significant wave of claims” from businesses demanding refunds, said Andrew Morris, a senior litigation counsel at the New Civil Liberties Alliance. The legal group has represented businesses in tariff lawsuits.

The mechanics of that process — from how it would work to who would be eligible to reclaim the money — would depend on the scope of any court decision. Still, a loss could undercut one of Mr. Trump’s primary reasons for imposing tariffs in the first place, choking off a source of revenue that the president says is already making America “rich.”

The prospect has spooked Mr. Trump, who took to social media last week to warn that it would be “impossible to ever recover, or pay back, these massive sums of money” if a court ruled against him, adding that a loss could trigger a “GREAT DEPRESSION!”

Mr. Trump’s top lawyers formalized those arguments in a filing on Monday with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which is considering a legal challenge initially brought by small businesses and states. In a letter signed by D. John Sauer, the U.S. solicitor general, the government said a ruling against tariffs would undermine the president on foreign policy, jeopardize his recent trade deals and damage the U.S. economy.

The letter echoed Mr. Trump in cautioning that such a loss would leave the government in “financial ruin,” and carry a “1929-style result,” a reference to the Depression. It added that such a disruption could see Americans “forced from their homes” while leaving Social Security and Medicare “threatened” financially.

Many budget experts raised significant objections to the Trump administration’s claims about the potential loss of tariff revenue, which helped to generate about $152 billion in customs duties through July, according to the Treasury Department....

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