Following on June 17's "Will The U.S. Lend Israel A Couple B-2 Bombers Before The War Powers Resolution Comes To A Vote?".
From The War Zone, June 18:
B-2s are the only aircraft that can employ MOPs to get at Iran's deepest facilities, but C-130s may be a viable option with a similar weapon.
A major unknown we have been discussing for many years is how Israel would go about fully destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities, not just degrading them, without having the ability to penetrate deeply buried sites from the air — the nuclear enrichment facility that sits under a mountain in Fordo, in particular. Without the help of U.S. B-2 Spirits carrying GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), a ground operation seemed like nearly the only option. But what about Israel’s humble fleet of roughly 15 KC-130H, C-130H, and C-130J Hercules transports?
The B-2 and the constantly evolving MOP are the only known combo of conventional weapons that could theoretically dig down far enough to blow up the Fordo nuclear site. Even the ability of this to succeed in this mission has been questioned. Exotic ballistic missile and warhead combinations may be an option, but this is totally speculative. Beyond striking tunnel entrances to possibly impair access to the site for a period of time using smaller bunker busters, the B-2s carrying MOPs appear to be the only game in town. Or is it?
Part of the B-2’s allure is that it could penetrate very deeply into Iranian airspace and strike its targets without having to execute a full air war. It would still need major support, but, combined with standoff capabilities and stealth tactical jets, it provides an avenue to a quicker and hopefully cleaner conflict aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The need for the B-2’s stealth qualities is drastically reduced now that Israel has declared air superiority over Iran. That doesn’t mean ground-based air defenses are not still a threat — especially road mobile, shoulder-fired, and non-traditional systems — but Iran’s overall counter-air capability has been severely degraded. Fighters and even slow-moving large drones that operate at medium altitude are now flying relatively freely over major Iranian population centers today. Regardless, as far as we know, the B-2 is still not an option as the United States has not yet agreed to join the kinetic fight alongside Israel.
B-2 dropping a MOP during a test flight. (USAF)
At the same time, we have seen some interesting glimpses of Israel’s C-130 operations extending far east, over Syria, and likely beyond. It isn’t clear exactly what these operations are for. They could be providing forward arming and refueling points (FARPs) and aerial refueling for special operations helicopters that are tasked with combat search and rescue and operative extraction. They could also be supporting forward drone launch bases or even air dropping drones that will head deep into Iran themselves. As Israel continues to dismantle the bits that are left of Iran’s air defenses, pushing these aircraft far deeper into the country is a possibility.
Making the aerial threat conditions anemic enough so that a C-130 can survive reliably deep into Iranian territory would be relevant for going after nuclear targets that standard aerial weaponry cannot reach. In the past, we have detailed how a ground assault would likely be necessary for this task if Israel had to go it alone. The IDF has certainly shown it’s prepared for such operations, but that is still an extremely risky endeavor. So, what if Israel’s C-130s could drop GBU-57 MOPs, or an Israeli weapon very similar to it, on these targets instead of B-2s?
There is certainly a precedent for C-130s dropping absolutely massive bombs out of their cargo holds, both old and new. The BLU-82 Daisy Cutter was dropped by C-130, primarily to clear landing zones, during the Vietnam War. A modernized fuel-air weapon known as the GBU-43 Mother Of All Bombs (MOAB) is in service today, and it was used with devastating results in Afghanistan in 2017. So why not a super-heavy penetrator?....
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