Monday, June 2, 2025

Capital Markets: "Markets Rattled to Start the New Month Amid Heightened Trade Tensions" (also war/rumors of war)

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

Overview: The breakdown in the US-China trade agreement, the doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and Ukraine's daring drone attack have rattled market, sending stock, bonds, and the dollar lower. All the G10 currencies are up by at least 0.35%, with the Scandis leading the way up by more than 1%. Although the Canadian dollar is the laggard, it is trading at new highs for the year. Most emerging market currencies are higher, as well. Although the Law and Justice presidential candidate in Poland won the run-off, which will challenge Prime Minister Tusk's lead Poland into European leadership, the zloty is up about 0.5% today. Still, it is underperforming other currencies in the region, but the Russian ruble, which is off about 1.6%. The US sees the final May manufacturing PMI, the ISM manufacturing, and April construction spending. However, it is Fed Chair Powell's speech (1 pm EST) that may draw the most interest.

China's mainland markets are closed for a national holiday today as are several smaller bourses, but only South Korea's Kospi among the large markets managed to rise fractionally. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off nearly 0.3% (it rose 4% last month). The US index futures are off 0.5%-0.7%. The S&P 500 rallied a little more than 6% last month, its best since November 2023. The Nasdaq soared by almost 9.6% last month. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are higher. Although the yield on Japan's benchmark edged up to almost 1.50%, the 30- and 40-year yields softened. European 10-year rates are mostly 4-6 bp higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield is four basis points higher to nearly 4.45%. Gold fell 2% last week but is up 1.8% on the day and is straddling the $3350 area. OPEC+ did not announce an increase in July output as much as some feared and tensions with Iran may be rising as the IEA says it has accelerated its near-weapon grade enrichment of uranium. July WTI is near last week's high (~$63)....

....MUCH MORE

Both Brent and WTI crude futures were up almost 4% earlier this morning.