From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:
Overview: The US dollar is trading quietly in a mixed fashion, mostly confined to the ranges seen at the end of last week. This could prove to be a pivotal week. The weakness in the US survey data may become evident in the real sector data, with a dismal Q1 GDP reading that may show the economy stalled before the tariff bite and job growth may have slowed considerably. Tomorrow is the President Trump is 100th day of the second term and the world is on edge. The tariff on de minimis goods comes into effect this week and the most impacted Chinese companies have announced large price increases. Many expect Trump to announce some sort of modification or delay in the 25% tariff on auto parts that is to start later this week. Meanwhile, a controversy is brewing. Trump claims that there are trade talks ongoing with China and that he has talked with Chinese leader Xi. Beijing denies it. Observers must decide the veracity, and many appear to believe China over Washington. There is a light economic calendar today while Canada holds its national election. Carney's lead has narrowed, but he is still favored to get a popular mandate.
Equities are mostly firmer. The large bourses in the Asia Pacific but China, Hong Kong, and Singapore (which voted over the weekend) finished higher. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up for the fifth consecutive day, while US index futures are sporting minor losses. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 2-4 bp firmer in Europe. The 10-year Treasury yield is up three basis points near 4.26%. Gold is trading softly but is holding above last week's lows near $3260. A break could spur further profit-taking toward $3200. June WTI held below $64 and is trading below $63. Last week's low was nearly $61.50....
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