Friday, April 25, 2025

"47 earthquakes strike Istanbul in 3 hours"

Let us hope they stop or this could end very badly.

From Türkiye Today, April 23: 

A series of earthquakes have rattled the Istanbul region on Wednesday, with 47 recorded tremors within a span of just three hours, according to Türkiye’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).

The seismic activity began at 12:13 p.m. local time with a magnitude 3.9 earthquake off the coast of Silivri. What followed was an intense sequence of aftershocks, the most powerful of which struck the same area with a magnitude of 6.2.

The smallest recorded tremor during this period measured 1.6 magnitude and occurred off the coasts of Silivri and Buyukcekmece....

....MUCH MORE

Our concern has been and is the slow march westward of big quakes toward Istanbul. Previously: 

Risk: Massive Earthquake Could Hit Istanbul at any Moment with just SECONDS Warning, Say Scientists   

An Istanbul Earthquake: Since 1939 The Magnitude 7+ Quakes Are Moving Progressively Closer To Istanbul

This is just a heads-up, we are not following in Joe Granville's footsteps* and getting into the earthquake predicting business.

In July 20 2017's "Risk:Today's 6.7-Magnitude Turkish Earthquake Was Not The 'Big One'" we noted:
"The epicenter is just offshore southwestern Turkey while  the 'big one' is expected in Istanbul's backyard...." and mentioned the North Anatolian Fault (NAF):

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Anatolian_Plate.png

Here's the problem. The strong earthquakes along the NAF, pictured inside the red crescent in the small map below, have been steadily moving west toward Istanbul, population 14.6 million:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/Slip-dist.png
Source: From the USGS via Wikipedia:

The 1939 earthquake was a 7.8 magnitude and killed 32,000.
The 1942 quake, epicenter 200 km further west was a magnitude 7.0 and killed ~3000.
The 1943 and 1944 earthquakes were both measured at 7.2 and killed 2800 and 3900 respectively.
The 1957 quake, a 7.1, killed 52 people and the 1967 quake also a 7.1 killed 86.

As can be seen in the top panel both of the latter earthquakes resulted in much less lateral slippage of the land compared to the earlier quakes, meaning the stresses were still building.

Finally the 1999 Izmet earthquake—not shown on this 1997 representation—was another 150 km closer to Istanbul. It measured 7.6 and killed over 17,000 people. The lateral slippage was 5.7 meters.

So don't be surprised if one morning in the next 5 to 10 years you wake up and there is some very bad news coming out of Istanbul.