Monday, November 4, 2024

Capital Markets: "US Polls Spur Position Adjusting Ahead of Tomorrow's Election"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: Weekend polls in the US made it seem that the Trump victory, which many large pools of capital, had discounted, was not so inevitable after all. The most dramatic market response was taking US yields and the dollar lower. The US 10-year yield is off about nine basis points to straddle 4.30% and the two-year yield down four basis points to around 4.16%. The greenback is also against all the G10 currencies. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer, led by central Europe and the Mexican peso.

Equities are mostly higher. Tokyo markets were closed for a national holiday but most of the large markets in Asia Pacific rose, with the exception of India. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen for the past five weeks. Europe's Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a two-week decline, and it is posting its first back-to-back gain in more than two weeks. US index futures also enjoy a firmer tone. European benchmark 10-year yields ae mostly 1-2 bp firmer, but Italian and Spanish bond have caught a bid, and yields are a little softer. On the other hand, Gilt yields are continuing to rise since the budget. The yield was near 4.20% before the budget and poked above 4.50%. It is now near 4.47%. Gold slipped closer to $2730 today (~$2736.70 settlement) before steadying. It is trading quietly near $2740 now. Iran's threat to strike back at Israel and OPEC+ decision to postpone production increases for the second time is lending support to December WTI. It is trading firmly near last week's high above $71. ...

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