Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Capital Markets: "Greenback Consolidates"

I think Mr. Chandler is doing what the journalists among our readers would call "burying the lede" with that headline.

If you look at the yield on the 10-year note index (CBOE TNX):

 Chart Image

TradingView 

3.71% on October 1 to October 21's 4.1820%, which itself was up from 4.073% (+0.1090%) on the day, you can see something is afoot. Something big.

And powerful. Yesterday's rise in yields showed a step-up pattern when the TNX futures resumed trading for the week and then continued higher from there. I'm not exactly sure what the 10-year market is seeing but it sure seems important.

And Mr. Chandler? He knows more about the interplay of economic growth and rates and inflation and currencies than I ever will. And he leads with an anodyne, innocent sounding two-word headline.

Smart-ass.

From Marc to Market:

Overview: US interest rates remain firm and the dollar is mostly consolidating against the G10 currencies, in a muted "Turn Around Tuesday." The greenback is straddling the JPY151 area, its best level since the end of July. Despite bearish price action yesterday, the euro, sterling, and Australian dollar have seen limited follow-through selling and modest upticks today, which so far have not challenged the underlying technical tone. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Asia Pacific currencies are softer, while central European currencies, but the Turkish lira, are firmer.

Equities are under pressure. In the Asia Pacific region, only China and Hong Kong bourses advanced. Japan, Australia, and South Korean markets fell over 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off 0.35% after falling 0.65% yesterday. US index futures are lower. The S&P 500 slipped by almost 0.2% yesterday and has not recovered consecutive losing sessions since early September. The NASDAQ has a four-day advance in tow, but in the futures market, is off 0.6%. The sell-off in global bonds continues. European benchmark yields are 3-5 bp higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield is pushing above 4.20%. Canada and Australia's 10-year yields are jumping 11 bp and 16 bp, respectively. Gold is firm but holding below the record high set yesterday a little below $2741. December WTI is edging higher to a five-day high near $70.75. Last week, the contract was turned back from the 200-day moving average tested on October 14 (~$74.35)....

....MUCH MORE