From UnHerd, August 30:
The most important number in French politics is 123. It’s the difference between the number of deputies in the National Assembly who support President Emmanuel Macron (166) and the number required for a majority (289). So far, this has proved to be an unbridgeable gap. Eight weeks on from the last set of legislative elections, France is still without a prime minister.
The largest alliance in the assembly — the Left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) — tried to put forward its own candidate for PM, Lucie Castets. But to much online fury, Macron rejected her this week, provoking accusations that he is mounting a coup. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical La France Insoumise (LFI), wants the President impeached, and communist chief Fabien Roussel is calling for massive protests.
These tactics won’t work. First of all, there’s nothing in the French constitution that says that the largest parliamentary faction gets to choose the prime minister, unless it’s large enough to command a majority. What’s more, Castets lacks popular backing: the latest polling only gives her 26% support compared to 41% for caretaker PM Gabriel Attal.
As for impeaching Macron, that would require a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, which the Left won’t get unless it unites the entire opposition, including its Right-wing enemies. Strikes, marches and riots won’t work either. Macron survived the Gilets Jaunes protests so he’s likely to survive the NFP’s tantrum.
Even if France does burn again, that would only give Macron a pretext to invoke Article 16 of the constitution and rule by presidential decree. It would be a last resort, of course, but he could use another constitutional weapon: Article 49, which allows important legislation to be passed through the National Assembly without a vote....
....MUCH MORE
Previously:
- June 20—French Politics: If He Doesn't Get His Way, President Macron Has The Option Of Invoking Article 16 And Becoming King
- July 10—Rabobank: "Fractured France, A three-way split"
And some of the financial implications, June 18—"ECB in no rush to discuss French bond rescue - sources"