Friday, February 9, 2024

Central Bankers: An Interview With The Retired Head of The People's Bank Of China (we missed an anniversary)

From Pekingnology, February 6:

What is Yi Gang trying to say in his 1st interview after retiring from PBoC?
China's former central bank governor talked about jiaozi from 1,000 years ago - for what?

In a recent comment on a Pekingnology post, Geremie R. Barmé, the veteran Australian sinologist who counts Kevin Rudd as his student, invoked the observation of Miklós Haraszti, a Hungarian writer, from decades ago:

…the technique of writing between the lines is, for us, identical with artistic technique. It is a part of our skill and a test of our professionalism. Even the prestige accorded to us by officialdom is partly predicated on our talent for talking between the lines… .

…Debates between the lines are an acceptable launching ground for trial balloons, a laboratory of consensus, a chamber for the expression of manageable new interests, an archive of weather reports. The opinions expressed there are not alien to the state but are perhaps simply premature.

Commentators including Chairman Rabbit have pointed out that some vital China knowledge is so obscure that they are now essentially esoteric. In my opinion, the higher end of China watching inevitably involves locating and distilling what is written between the lines. Merely locating valuable content out of a sea of carefully crafted speeches, documents, and interviews packed with obscure phrases is a difficult if not impossible undertaking for many. I hope Pekingnology - and The East is Read, a sister newsletter - could at least help with that, in its humble effort to promote a more comprehensive understanding of China.

Today, I am sharing a January 12, 2024 interview of Yi Gang, former Governor of the People’s Bank of China, by 金融时报 Jinrong Shibao (literally Financial Times), a newspaper by the central bank.

Yi obtained his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign and became an Associate Professor with tenure at Indiana University–Purdue University Indianapolis, before going back to Peking University, his alma mater. He later joined the People’s Bank of China and rose through its ranks until heading it between 2018 and 2023.

Yi retired in July last year and his five-year tenure at the helm of China’s central bank is known for, according to Bloomberg, “a restrained policy approach focused on moderate stimulus and reducing financial risks in the economy.”

The preface of the Jinrong Shibao interview reads:

On January 12, 1024, the Northern Song court decided to establish the Jiaozi Affairs (Bureau) in present-day Chengdu, Sichuan (then known as Yizhou). The Northern Song’s 交子 Jiaozi became the earliest invented and used paper money in human history, marking its 1000th anniversary this year. The Northern Song’s Jiaozi, followed by 钱引 Qianyin, 会子 Hui'zi, 蒙元中统钞 Mongol Yuan Dynasty's Zhongtong notes, and the 大明宝钞 Da Ming Baochao notes, represent significant contributions of China to the history of human currency. Influenced by these innovations, Persia, India, Japan, and Goryeo also issued paper money....

....MUCH MORE

September 2007
Chinese inflation hits 6.5 percent, highest rate in nearly 11 years

...If I recall correctly, the Ming Dynasty had to repudiate paper money in the 1450's to end a hyperinflation.
Update: I am pleased with myself.
Found this quote from "A History of Money":

1448 Hyperinflation in China
The Ming note nominally worth 1,000 cash has a market value of only three.
p 183
Here's the Hyperinflator:
Ying Zong, Zhu Qizhen, 1436 - 1450 and 1457 - 1464, Emperor Ming Dynasty
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e6/Ming_Yingzong_%281%29.jpg

As noted most recently in the outro from January 12's "Peoples Bank Of China Playing Cool And Calm As Deflation Specter Rises".

And probably related, June 4, 2018:

China’s eight centuries of experiment with paper money is coming to a close