But it was sounding so promising. Just eighteen months ago the Wall Street Journal headline was "Japan’s Big Bet On Hydrogen Could Revolutionize The Energy Market".
From New Atlas, January 25:
In 2017, Japan created a pioneering national hydrogen strategy, envisaging a carbon-neutral "hydrogen society." But a Renewable Energy Institute report slams the policy as catastrophically misguided, with 70% of its 10-year budget "spent on bad ideas."
Despite the fact that it's been "revised somewhat" over the last 5-6 years, the REI claims Japan's strategy needs a complete overhaul if the country is to have any chance of catching up with Europe, China and other countries, let alone regaining any kind of early-mover advantage. Ideas like the futuristic Toyota/Woven Planet "Woven City" with its extensive use of hydrogen canisters for home energy and fuel cell vehicles for short-range transport are wildly misaligned with what this stuff is actually good for. A strategy that should be focused on decarbonization is actually pushing Japan toward higher emissions in some cases, and it's killing the country's fledgling green hydrogen industry.
The key issues in a report titled Re-examining Japan's Hydrogen Strategy: Moving Beyond the "Hydrogen Society" Fantasy can be broken down into three main areas.
1) Japan is targeting hydrogen at the wrong applications
Hydrogen is a wasteful and inefficient energy carrier compared with batteries and direct electrification, so most of the world has arrived at an understanding that hydrogen and its carriers are best targeted at things that can't be decarbonized in some other, easier way. Aviation, shipping, heavy transport and steelmaking are good examples of areas where hydrogen looks like a competitive solution.
Japan's strategy, on the other hand, pushes hydrogen heavily toward things like passenger cars (where consumers overwhelmingly prefer battery EVs) and combined "Ene-Farm" heat/power systems for buildings, when this sort of thing can be done cheaper and more energy-efficiently with heat pumps. Not to mention, who wants a situation where you're constantly having to replace hydrogen fuel canisters to keep your home powered up?
"Japan’s hydrogen strategy places 'bad idea' applications as its main focus," reads the report. As a result, the vast majority – around 70% – of the 460 billion Japanese Yen (US$3.5 billion) in primary government budgets for hydrogen programs are being directed toward things like fuel cell passenger cars, hydrogen refueling infrastructure and residential fuel cells....
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Probably related, Electrek, January 26:
Toyota cracks amid electric vehicle movement, CEO replaced by Lexus chief
Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda, who has been leading the company since the global financial crisis, is stepping down amid mounting pressure as the industry moves to electric vehicles.
Toyoda, the 66-year-old grandson of the company’s founder has been one of the most outspoken critics of going all in on electric vehicles despite the rest of the industry moving forward....
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We last mentioned Toyota in July when CMA CGN joined the CEO-and-above pressure group The Hydrogen Council:
These are not the little guys.
The new co-chair is Takeshi Uchiyamada, Chairman of Toyota ($275 billion revenue).
He joins Benoît Potier Chair and CEO of Air Liquide ($26 billion revs.) who has been co-chair since 2017.Uchiyamada and his lieutenant Mr. Toyoda run one of the few organizations that can command greater automotive resources than Elon Musk.
Which may set up an interesting confrontation as Mr. Musk is on record as saying hydrogen fuel cells are "mind-bogglingly stupid."
He's also called them “incredibly dumb” and “fool cells.”