From CNBC, December 20:
- S&P Global’s base case forecast for oil prices is $90 a barrel for 2023, but Dan Yergin warns there are major uncertainties looming over markets.
- For example, he said there’s a chance prices could retake $120 when China fully reopens — that would be around the same level as March highs after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Dan Yergin expects oil at $90 in 2023 but says there’s a chance it could go as high as $121 when China fully reopens, but warned there are three major uncertainties looming over the market.
“Our base case for 2023 is $90 for Brent but you have to look at other cases,” the S&P Global vice chairman said, adding there are three major uncertainties: the Federal Reserve’s decisions, China demand and Moscow’s reaction to the price caps.
“If China gets over Covid ... then you add a lot of demand to the market,” Yergin told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.
That could be “one big boost” and push prices to $121 a barrel, building on strains caused by underinvestment in oil and gas, Yergin said. That would be near highs set in March after Russia invaded Ukraine.
On the flipside, Yergin said prices could fall to around $70 per barrel in a recession....
....MUCH MORE
Fortune via Yahoo Finance had more on the various scenarios:
Leading energy historian says oil prices could smash past $100 a barrel in 2023. It all depends on 3 factors