Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Equities: "Kid, the next time I say, 'Let's go someplace like Bolivia,' let's GO someplace like Bolivia"

That's a line from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid that I trot out when talking about lithium (Bolivia's reserves are large-by-large).
It's also a commentary of the futility of not following through.

DJIA down 386 after dropping over 500; S&P 500 down 33.

On July 15 we posted "Equities Fun Fact: Three Stocks Have Accounted For 970 of the last 1,000 DJIA Points" with an intro and an outro:
That's from Wall Street on Parade who have a more conspiratorial headline than is our wont.
We haven't yet commented on the S&P closing above 3,000 and the Dow Joneses closing over 27,000 because I didn't know what to say. Despite calling for three grand (and more) on the S&P for over two years, getting ridiculously bullish on stocks in the weeks leading up to the Christmas Eve bottom (triple leveraged ETFs, options on S&P futures), and preaching the yield curve is not yet important, despite all that, something doesn't feel right about Friday's action.

We've mentioned, for years, how NYSE specialists set up false appearances in the market. Here's a 2009 version:....
***** 
....I don't know about the conspiracy but I do know something about the action still does't feel right.
By-the-bye, our bull market top-tick target remains 3,300 on the S&P 500 (3,010.71 last) so there is still enough upside to warrant riding the bubble but something odd is going on right now.
I should have been pounding that point home for the last three weeks. Instead I see "Don't Laugh: Banana Peels Are A Real Hazard" and "Meanwhile, at Tesco, The Julian Calendar Lives!" in the queue and say "Let's go with that.
Aargh.

The Butch Cassidy quote is from the scene where, running from the posse ("Who are those guys?") they get trapped at a cliff overlooking the river far below:
EXT: DAY

The way I figure it, we can either fight or give. If we give, we go to jail.
 I've been there already.
If we fight, they can stay where they are and starve us out... or go for position, shoot us. Might even get a rock slide started.
What else can they do?
They could surrender to us, but I wouldn't count on that.
They're going for position, all right.
Better get ready. Kid, the next time I say let's go someplace like Bolivia, let's go someplace like Bolivia.
Next time.
Ready?
No.
We'll jump.
Like hell we will.
No. It'll be O.K. if the water's deep enough and we don't get squished to death. They'll never follow us.
How do you know?
Would you jump that if you didn't have to?
I have to, and I'm not gonna.
We got to. Otherwise we're dead. Come on.
Just one clear shot... that's all I want. I want to fight them!
They'll kill us.
Maybe. You want to die?
Do you?
All right, I'll jump first.
No.
Then you jump first.
No, I said.
What's the matter?
I can't swim!
Why, you crazy? The fall will probably kill you.
Oh-oh... ohhh... shiiiit! 
https://www.springfieldspringfield.co.uk/movie_script.php?movie=butch-cassidy-and-the-sundance-kid