From Winton's 'Longer View', June 2017:
The gas market has experienced many shocks stretching back into the 19th century.
The Explosive Properties of Pennsylvanian Gas (1880s)....MUCH MORE
In the early days of natural gas, rudimentary pipeline technology caused frequent disruptions. By virtue of its proximity to the Alleghany gas fields and motivated by a desire to reduce its air pollution, Pittsburgh was the first major city to adopt natural gas on a large scale. But its pipelines were beset by constant leaks, fluctuating pressures and explosions. One explosion levelled an entire city block, sparking a riot. Such unreliable supply prompted a partial return to coal, but also brought about innovative safety features and the auxiliary production of coal-oven gas, which helped smooth supply and demand for natural gas.
The Smartest Guys in the Room (2000)
When El Paso and its affiliates withheld natural gas to California during the state’s power crisis in 2000, they drove Southern Californian gas prices to five times the levels seen elsewhere, increasing the differential in prices along the pipeline from $1 to $50. Californian officials estimated that El Paso’s actions drove California’s gas and power costs higher by $3.7bn. Together with energy company Enron’s malfeasance, El Paso’s actions highlighted the dangers of overzealous energy deregulation, resulting in greater levels of regulatory oversight....
On Thursday the EIA reported that U.S. electrical utilities had a record natural gas power burn:
In the News:
United States sets new daily record-high for power burnAnd yet, despite this, natural gas futures settled at 2.1510, getting closer to the seldom-breached $2.00 line and threatening the 2016 multi-decadal lows:
The United States set a new record for natural gas consumption by electric power plants (power burn) of 44.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) on Friday, July 19, according to S&P Global Platts. Since July 1, 2019, U.S. power burn has exceeded the previous record of 43.1 Bcf/d―set on July 16, 2018―on five days: July 10 and July 16–19. Much higher-than-normal temperatures, structural changes to the power sector (particularly in the Northeast), and low natural gas prices all contributed to increased natural gas consumption by electric generators.
Higher electricity demand for space cooling in the past week was the main driver of increased natural gas-fired power generation as a record-setting heat wave affected much of the Lower 48 states. Although the hottest temperatures occurred over the weekend, most states east of the Rocky Mountains experienced warmer-than-normal weather in the days leading up to the heat wave. From July 16–21, the average maximum temperature exceeded 85 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) in most parts of the country; furthermore, average minimum temperatures, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, were 8°F–10°F higher than average, resulting in increased cooling demand during off-peak periods.
Another contributing factor to the record power burn was relatively low natural gas prices, which averaged $2.33 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) from July 16–21 at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, according to Natural Gas Intelligence. So far this summer, Henry Hub prices have averaged $2.34/MMBtu, 19% lower than during the same period last year....MUCH MORE
Speculators can be right on the direction of prices from time to time but in the long run the commercials must be right or they go bankrupt and the game ends for everyone.