From the Financial Post's Trading Desk blog:
Barclays Capital said that the odds that the U.S. Federal Reserve will delay liftoff have increased ahead of a key economic policy symposium this week.Earlier today:
Markets will be paying close attention to whatever comes out of Jackson Hole, Wyo., where Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer is scheduled to speak about inflation on Aug. 29.
Last week, the Fed released the minutes of its July meeting, which some watchers saw as taking a more dovish tilt and leaving the door open to hiking interest rates later this year, or even waiting until next year.
Barclays said in a note to clients that the probability that the Fed will delay a hike is rising given the recent fear seen in global markets.
“The events since the July FOMC meeting, at which it appears that there was not a consensus to begin with, suggest that the start of the cycle may again be delayed,” Barclays said.
Since the Fed meeting in July, Barclays notes that crude oil prices have fallen roughly 15 per cent, the U.S. dollar has strengthened by 1.6 per cent and the hourly earnings print posted a surprise expectation miss....MORE
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