Tuesday, April 29, 2014

1914: The Gold Standard Is A Dying Regime

We are coming into the hundred year anniversary of that last summer of peace.*
From Global Financial Data (they of the ridiculously long time-series'):

The End of the Gold Standard
It was 100 years ago, in 1914, that the Gold Standard died.  When World War I began, most countries went off the Gold Standard and attempts to return to a Gold Standard since have all failed. Some people have called for a return to the Gold Standard as a way of disciplining governments and ensuring that they do not inflate their way out of their current fiscal problems. If it were only that easy.

                What many people don’t understand is that in the long run, the International Gold Standard was a very brief phenomenon, and the fact that the world moved to a Gold Standard in the late 1800s was a sign of weakness in the role of gold and silver in the economy, not of strength.  The reality was that Europe was on a bimetallic standard, not a Gold Standard, from the Middle Ages until World War I, and gold triumphed in the nineteenth century because bimetallism had failed. This should have been taken as a sign that the gold standard too would inevitably fail, not that it was the result of teleological inevitability.

                The first gold and silver coins were issued by Croesus in Lydia around 600 BC.  Before that, both gold and silver were used as a store of for wealth, for conspicuous consumption, or to value other goods, but no coins existed.  The value of gold relative to silver, the gold/silver ratio, changed over time.  In 2700 BC it was around 9 to 1; under Hammurabi in 1800 BC it was 6 to 1; and by the time Croesus issued the first gold and silver coins, rather than electrum coins, it was 12 to 1.

                The gold/silver ratio remained around 12 to 1 for the next 2500 years, though it could range as low as 9 to 1 or as high as 16 to 1. Athens built its empire on the silver mines of Laurium; Alexander the Great plundered the treasuries of the Persians; and the Romans seized this stolen bullion when they conquered the Mediterranean. Constantine took the gold of the Pagan temples for his needs, and whoever controlled Egypt could rely upon the mines in Nubia as a source of gold. When the Arabs spread Islam through the world, they seized the gold and silver of the lands they conquered. When they gained control over northern Africa, the Arabs also gained power over the gold coming from sub-Saharan Africa.

                Europeans minted a few coins during their Dark Ages, but mainly they relied upon Arab gold coins. It wasn’t until the Europeans sacked Constantinople during the Crusades, taking its gold, and the Venetian cities developed trade surpluses with the Arabs that Europe found a need to mint gold on a regular basis, starting in 1252.

                The chart below shows the gold/silver ratio over the past 750 years. In the thirteenth century, the gold to silver ratio was around 10 to 1. It was the scarcity of gold in the fifteenth century that drove the Portuguese to go south and east to seek gold and silver, and the Spaniards to go west, discovering the Americas instead of reaching China....MORE
1914 marked the end of the 100 year Pax Britannica, the rĂ©gime best exemplified  in this very, very rare photograph from a few years earlier:
Nine Kings 1910*
 

*Probably the only time in history the protocol peeps were able to get this many roi boy** types to agree to the order of precedence.
**(pronounced rwa bwas)

May 1910: Nine Kings assembled at Buckingham Palace for the funeral of Edward VII, the Father of George V (centre). From left to right, back row: Haakon VII of Norway, Ferdinand I of Bulgaria, Manuel II of Portugal, Wilhelm II of Germany, George I of Greece and Albert I Of Belgium. Front row: Alphonso XIII of Spain, George V and Frederick VIII of Denmark. The funeral on  20th May was the largest gathering of the European royalty–and its last hurrah, too. Also present at the funeral was Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, whose assassination four years later would spark the WWI–which collapsed many royal dynasties of Europe. Manuel of Portugal would be driven from his throne by revolutionaries within months of this picture. George would be assassinated.  Alphonso, Wilhelm and Ferdinand lost their thrones.-Source

Sharp eyed readers have probably noted the absence of Nicholas II, Emperor and Autocrat of All the Russias.
Very odd considering that he was part o'the fam:


Two bearded men of identical height wear military dress uniforms emblazoned with medals and stand side-by-side
King George V (right) with his
first cousin Tsar Nicholas II, 
Berlin, 1913. Note the close 
physical resemblance between 
the two monarchs.

Nick was also the nephew of the Greek and Danish Kings and of the widowed wife of Edward VII, Queen Consort Alexandra.

Time to post, before I start singing Sister Sledge.