From Modern Diplomacy, January 27, 2026:
The United States is accelerating its efforts toward nuclear autonomy.
The United States is accelerating its efforts toward nuclear autonomy. The $2.87 billion DOE contract greenlit by the Trump Administration funds the construction of new reactors, enrichment self-sufficiency, and increased control of the US nuclear fuel chain. However, Washington’s investment must address the deal’s Achilles’ heel: strong supply chains and sustainable uranium imports.
Introduction
The New Year started strong on January 5th, with the US Department of Energy announcing a $2.87 billion investment to strengthen domestic enrichment for ten years. This comes in the wake of President Trump’s energy security goals and a reduced reliance on foreign supply chains, as well as expanding investments in US low-enriched uranium (LEU) reserves and high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU). To promote nuclear fuel self-sufficiency, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright claims the investment “shows that this Administration is committed to restoring a secure domestic nuclear fuel supply chain capable of producing nuclear fuels needed to power the reactors of today and the advanced reactors of tomorrow.” The January 5th commitment allows 3 US companies to reshore from foreign fuel suppliers in order to diversify the US domestic supply. The development of domestic LEU and HALEU fuel production is crucial for maintaining the 94 commercial reactors in the US and establishing a strong foundation for future deployments.
Despite a forward-leaning administrative posture with the investment, the US nuclear supply chain is fraught with instability. On January 9, at the Stanford University-led Nuclear Fuel Cycle Roundtable, US Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, chair of the House Energy and Water Development Appropriations Subcommittee, addressed US vulnerabilities in the nuclear sector. In the supply chain, there is a constriction on uranium supplies and rising geopolitical risks in sourcing uranium from foreign nations, paired alongside high costs for development.
With volatile markets and hesitant buyers in the energy sector, high prices promote corporate reluctance to extend contracts. The Nuclear Fuel Roundtable, organized by STEER, a Department of Energy-funded initiative to develop supply chain stability, promotes informed investment in emerging technologies. “We sought to focus on the fuel supply chain, while much of recent private investment activity has been focused on current- and next-generation reactors amid this new nuclear groundswell. Specifically, our objective is to identify ‘what must be true’ for the fuel supply chain to support the growing demand,” said STEER founder Adrian Yao.
Not a Yellowcake Walk
Following Trump’s 2025 announcement to restart the Three Mile Island Nuclear Generation Station, future growth is limited by international supply chains. This includes mining and refinement of U-238, conversion into gas, enrichment into fissile U-235, and production of uranium pellets and fuel rods for use in nuclear power plants. The US is self-sufficient in this final stage of the nuclear fuel process, but due to high extraction costs and low uranium quantities, the US is largely import-reliant in mining, gas conversion, and enrichment. To begin this process, sustainable access to uranium ore must be achieved. Globally, the largest uranium deposits are in Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, Russia, and Namibia (with reserves exceeding 1 million tons).
In Kazakhstan, Astana has recently sought Western diversification from Russian and Chinese buyers, opening a potential corridor for US companies. Five facilities worldwide convert uranium ore for large-scale gas enrichment. This features significant struggle in global markets, leading to the closure of Western plants, increased prices, and shrinking global converted gas supplies. Countering the buyer deadlock, the US Federal Government should act as a buyer for facilities to ensure capacity expansion is maintained for investors.
For enrichment, half of the global processing capacity is concentrated in Russia, with two enrichments in the US and Western Europe. The US relies on 30% of Russian enriched uranium, which faced a 2024 congressional act banning Russian enriched uranium imports. US market stallage was seen after the Russian import ban, with viable alternatives for Russian enriched uranium for the ban to remain effective. Bennett Johnson, co-author at STEER strategic partnerships, said, “China could circumvent the ban by ‘flag swapping’ Russian uranium in US markets.” Since the ban, Russia has compensated for market losses by selling enriched uranium to Chinese markets, which saw a surge in volume and value in the 2023-2024 period....
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