LJUBLJANA – Where, in today’s world, do all our antagonisms and
struggles for survival converge? Is there a singular point that embodies
our universal predicament? It is not Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, or the scam
centers in the north of Myanmar. It is Tehran.
The Iranian capital is counting down to a “day zero”
when it will simply run out of water. Nor is it alone. Most of Iran is
hurtling toward “water bankruptcy,” when demand will permanently exceed
the natural supply. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is now talking
about moving the capital and mandating the evacuation of the population
(nearly ten million).
The crisis reflects several factors. The
immediate cause is a severe six-year drought. Even in the rainy season,
Iran has received almost no rain. Moreover, water-intensive agriculture
and subsidization of water and energy have overdrawn the country’s aquifers and depleted its groundwater supplies.
Then, there is the concentration of economic activity and employment in
major urban centers, particularly Tehran, which has further strained
water resources. The loss of groundwater has been so severe that parts
of the Tehran plateau are sinking.
Even if the rains do return, less will be stored as groundwater than in
the past, because the physical space for it has contracted.
Since the
sinking now underway is not uniformly distributed, the entire water and
sewage system of Tehran is falling apart. Gas is leaking into the open
air from broken underground channels.
Iran’s leaders have known about this problem for decades but always
postponed any serious attempt to deal with it. Instead, the regime
allocated resources to its nuclear program, foreign proxies like Hamas,
the Houthis, and Hezbollah, and military production, keeping the armed
forces well-equipped and building the drones that Russia has been using
to bomb Ukrainian cities.
Worse, now that the crisis has come to a head, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has created a “water mafia.”
Lakes and rivers that have survived for thousands of years are being
drained to supply water to whoever can afford it. The average household
in Tehran is spending 10% of its income on water, and many people are
going without baths and other basic hygiene while the regime directly
profits from the crisis.
But why has this old and ongoing problem
suddenly become a global news story? Is it because the West wants to set
the stage for another Israeli/American attack (this time under the
guise of yet another humanitarian intervention)? Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has already cynically exploited the situation, telling
Iranians that if they rise up against the regime, Israel will send
specialists to address the water shortages.
Aside from organizing mass
prayers for rain, the regime has adopted the dubious strategy
of spraying large amounts of chemical salts into the atmosphere. But
rather than reliably inducing rain, such “cloud seeding” threatens to
kill off vegetation and make breathing more difficult. People are
increasingly staying home, and Iranian society is beginning to unravel.
As for the plan to move the capital, Pezeshkian’s statements have been
rather ambiguous. Is he talking about the bulk of the population, or
just the government administration? If it is the second option, what
will happen to the millions of people left behind? If it is the first,
the effort would take years and impose an unsustainable financial burden
on the state – all without solving the fundamental problem....
....MUCH MORE
And from the AP via the Times of Israel, December 15: