Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Goldman Sachs' Picks For Data Center Electricity Demand Growth

As far as getting power to the data centers the two class acts are Prysmian S.p.A. (PRY.Milan) for cabling and Quanta Services (PWR) for contracting/installation/engineering.

From Benzinga, April 29:

AI Data Centers Drive Electricity Demand: Goldman Sachs Picks 16 Stocks To Play The Trend

Zinger Key Points
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts 15% CAGR in data center power demand until 2030, with significant capital investments expected.
  • Escalating AI data center electricity needs to benefit a selected basket of utilities, renewables, and industrials.

The highlighted stocks are as follows:

Power Generation Capacity Additions

  • Xcel Energy Inc.XEL+0.0: Regulated utility exposed to power generation needs to support data center growth in Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator.
  • First Solar Inc. FSLR-1.40%: Primary manufacturer and supplier of solar panels for utility-scale solar farms across the United States.
  • Southern Company SO-0.12%: Regionally positioned regulated utility poised to meet the escalating demand from data centers through strategic investment in generation.
  • GE Vernova GEV-0.80%: Positioned to profit from sustained growth trends as a supplier of power generation assets.

Power Infrastructure Investment Needs

  • Quanta Services Inc.PWR-0.61%: Specialty contractor specializing in utilities construction, poised to reap rewards from increased electricity demand.
  • MYR Group Inc. MYRG-0.52%: Involved in data centers through transmission and distribution (T&D) projects, establishing prominence as a key player in electrical contracting.
  • DBA Sempra SRE-0.32%: Utility allocating substantial capital expenditure on T&D infrastructure to bolster the expansion of data centers in Texas.
  • Kinder Morgan KMI-0.21%: The leading operator of natural gas pipelines in the United States, set to profit from the rising demand for gas-fired generation....

....MUCH MORE

"Microsoft should accept that it's time to give up on Windows 11 and throw everything at Windows 12" (MSFT; EVIL)

We declined the opportunity to switch to Windows 11. There is not enough "oomph" to offset just how intrusive and hinky the software is.

From TechRadar, May 2:

Windows 12 might be the final answer

If the recent news concerning two Windows 11 updates that have been breaking various features isn’t enough, the recent reveal that the OS’s market share has dipped below 26% certainly should spark some alarm.

According to April 2024 data from Statcounter, Windows 11 plummeted to a 25.69% market share after it reached an all-time high of 28.16% back in February 2024. Meanwhile, Windows 10 has risen to over 70% market share during the same period, and this is after Microsoft announced its intentions to reach End of Support (EOS) for Windows 10 by October 2025.

Microsoft could be looking at a tremendous issue, in which its hopes for Windows 11 being the ultimate AI-supported OS with Copilot, are hampered due to not having the user base it needs. Normally, an OS drops in support once the successor launches, so Windows 11 falling nearly three points in just a few months is quite telling.

But is it honestly surprising?
It’s no secret that Windows 11 has been plagued with issues and bad updates since its launch — not to mention its biggest problem involving many users not being able to make the upgrade in the first place due to its much steeper installation requirements, which prevents many otherwise interested users from even upgrading in the first place.... 

....MUCH MORE

"French startup reveals quasi-immortal sensor that doesn't need energy to work — SilMach's ultra cheap microsensors can be used in a dizzying array of use cases"

From TechRadar, May 5:

Microsensors will monitor bridge safety for the French government

France 2030 is a strategic €34 billion investment by the French government aiming to kickstart economic growth in the country. 

As part of this initiative, the SIRCAPASS project (Surveillance of Road Infrastructures by Passive Sensors) has chosen French firm SilMach to provide ultra-cheap microsensors to monitor and ensure the structural health of bridges across the country.

The €1.7 million project is aimed at monitoring road infrastructures through passive sensors, specifically targeting impact detection, fatigue monitoring, exceptional overload, and crack identification - all tasks that previously were handled manually....

....MUCH MORE

Chips: "SoftBank Is Said in Talks to Buy Troubled AI Chip Firm Graphcore"

In 2017 it was looking so promising: "Sequoia Backs Graphcore as the Future of Artificial Intelligence Processors" (NVDA; INTC).

From Bloomberg, May 8:

  • Ongoing discussions with SoftBank have become more advanced
  • British semiconductor startup was once valued at $2.8 billion

SoftBank Group Corp. is in talks to acquire Graphcore Ltd., a struggling British semiconductor startup once valued at $2.8 billion, according to people familiar with the deals.

The two companies have held discussions over several months but entered into more advanced deal talks recently, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private matters. Financial terms haven’t yet been decided and the talks could still unravel, they said. A final agreement isn’t imminent, one person said.

The talks come amid a surge in sales for SoftBank, thanks largely to its majority stake in another UK-based chip designer, Arm Holdings Plc. On Feb. 7, Arm reported a strong outlook for its expansion beyond smartphones into more artificial intelligence applications. Arm shares have soared by about 40% since.

SoftBank didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. A representative for Graphcore declined to comment.

Graphcore works on a different type of chip technology than Arm. Formed in Bristol in 2016, the company develops designs for large “intelligence processing units,” meant to help with AI software processing inside data centers. The startup touted its product as a rival to Nvidia Corp.’s high-end graphics chips, and secured high-profile investors including Samsung Electronics Co., Bosch and Sequoia Capital. A 2020 financing round valued Graphcore at $2.8 billion....

....MORE

"Toyota sees 20% full-year profit decline after blockbuster Q4" (TM)

From Reuters via MSN, May 8:

Toyota Motor forecast a 20% profit decline in the current financial year on Wednesday, citing cost of investment in suppliers and strategy after the world's top-selling automaker delivered blockbuster fourth-quarter results.

Despite the leaner forecast, the results from the Japanese manufacturer smashed market expectations. Operating profit surged 78% in the January-March fourth quarter. For the full year, it totalled 5.35 trillion yen ($34.5 billion) - the first time for a Japanese company to top 5 trillion yen in operating profit, local media said.

While Toyota has been boosted by a weaker yen, it has been a big beneficiary of cooling demand for electric vehicles in some markets, such as the United States, where more customers are now embracing petrol-electric hybrids, Toyota's traditional strength.

It was long criticised for pursuing its "multi-pathway" strategy championing hybrids and plug-in hybrids as well as EVs, a stance that is increasingly looking prescient given consumer concerns about EV driving ranges and the availability of charging stations.

Toyota expects operating income to total 4.3 trillion yen in the year to March 2025, a 20% decline, as it invests in "human capital", including providing support for labour costs of suppliers and dealers, as well as investments for its multi-pathway strategy....

....MUCH MORE 

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

The Last Five Years of Equity Markets: India Wins, China (Hong Kong) Loses, Everybody Else Is In-Between

Lifted in toto, including our headline from Slope of Hope, May 7: 

Here’s some perspective at how the past five years have been in the equity markets of various countries. India wins, China loses, and everyone else is in between.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Growth-of-1000-Equities_WEB.jpg

Slope home

"AI Is a Hall of Mirrors"

And it gets even more phantasmagoric when it trains on synthetic data (or Wikipedia).

Always with the boilerplate: "AI is a lot more than LLMs."

From The New Atlantis, Spring 2024 edition:

LLMs are giving us a billion ripoffs of what we already are at a moment when we yearn for something new. 

Today we launched ChatGPT,” a chirpy Sam Altman posted on Twitter one day in the fall of 2022.

Altman went on to describe a sort of ladder of progress that humanity had just begun to climb. “Soon, you will be able to have helpful assistants that talk to you, answer questions, and give advice,” he promised. After that, “you can have something that goes off and does tasks for you.” His creation will be our eager protégé — our bright intern, piping up judiciously. Then it will be our homunculus, trusted with the grunt work.

What next? “Eventually you can have something that goes off and discovers new knowledge for you.” At the top of the ladder will be an AI capable of seeking enlightenment … and bringing it back to us. “Talk to the computer (voice or text) and get what you want, for increasingly complex definitions of ‘want’!”

There is an uneasy pairing here with the way we are used to thinking about AI. According to Altman, AI is there to serve you. It will talk to you, do for you, discover for you. It will give you what you want. It will really give you what you want, under ever “increasingly complex definitions.”

But the classic idea found in sci-fi, in both utopian fantasies of the end of human toil and doomer prophesies of the end of human existence, is that AI goes beyond us. Everyone now arguing about the shifting-goalpost vision of “general” artificial intelligence agrees that it would be something capable of beating us at our own games, cognitively and otherwise. In OpenAI’s charter, the endgame is the creation of “autonomous systems” that “outperform humans at most economically valuable work.”

What is happening here, and for whom? The answer is an impossible dream, one that has been suffusing our digital lives for a while now. Call it the for you paradox.

(Not) For You

Here is the paradox.

First: Everything is for you. TikTok’s signature page says it, and so, in their own way, do the recommendation engines of all social media. Streaming platforms triangulate your tastes, brand “engagements” solicit feedback for a better experience next time, Google Maps asks where you want to go, Siri and Alexa wait in limbo for reply. Dating apps present our most “compatible” matches. Sacrifices in personal data pay (at least some) dividends in closer tailoring. Our phones fit our palms like lovers’ hands. Consumer goods reach us in two days or less, or, if we prefer, our mobile orders are ready when we walk into our local franchise. Touchless, frictionless, we move toward perfect inertia, skimming engineered curves in the direction of our anticipated desires.

Second: Nothing is for you. That is, you specifically, you as an individual human person, with three dimensions and password-retrieval answers that actually mean something. We all know by now that “the algorithm,” that godlike personification, is fickle. Targeted ads follow you after you buy the product. Spotify thinks lullabies are your jam because for a couple weeks one put your child to sleep. Watch a political video, get invited down the primrose path to conspiracy. The truth of aggregation, of metadata, is that the for you of it all gets its power from modeling everyone who is not, in fact, you. You are typological, a predictable deviation from the mean. The “you” that your devices know is a shadow of where your data-peers have been. Worse, the “you” that your doctor, your insurance company, or your banker knows is a shadow of your demographic peers. And sometimes the model is arrayed against you. A 2016 ProPublica investigation found that if you are Black and coming up for sentencing before a judge who relies on a criminal sentencing algorithm, you are twice as likely to be mistakenly deemed at high risk for reoffending than your white counterpart.

Whoever you are, the algorithms’ for you promise at some point rings hollow. The simple math of automation is that the more the machines are there to talk to us, the less someone else will. Get told how important your call is to us, in endless perfect repetition. Prove you’re a person to Captcha, and (if you’re like me) sometimes fail. Post a comment on TikTok or YouTube knowing that it will be swallowed by its only likely reader, the optimizing feed.

Offline, the shadow of depersonalization follows. Physical spaces are atomized and standardized into what we have long been calling brick and mortar. QR, a language readable only to the machines, proliferates. The world becomes a little less legible. Want to order at this restaurant? You need your phone as translator, as intermediary, in this its newly native land.

The algorithm has an aesthetic in real life, which you’ll recognize if you’ve ever been in what Kyle Chayka has called “AirSpace” (and you have): the sameiness of Japandi semi-midcentury modern, now shaded into ‘70s and ‘80s redux: large leafy plants, tasteful minimalism and its studied, equally samey instances of backlash; terrazzo, blond wood, concrete and soaring ceilings. Once this land was millennial pink, Edison bulbs, fiddle-leaf ferns, painted arches, velvet statement couches. It will keep evolving but you will know it regardless, from gentrifying coffee shops, exurb Airbnbs, hotel lobby makeovers, startup offices, direct-to-consumer pop-ups, or from the Instagrams of any of same. Sit inside one of these spaces, anywhere, and ask: Is it for anyone? And who am I, if this is for me?

Other spaces feel like stand-ins for the simulation, with you as avatar. Ascend the plane of the Apple Store, in which the Geniuses hold the real arbiters of order, their iPads. Wander into the burrito place operating several ghost kitchens and feel like you’re doing something wrong by ordering at the counter. Banks take up once-prime real estate even as their purpose, in real life, becomes less clear — if you’re there it’s probably for some version of tech support. Next to the reception desk at the doctor’s office is the screen kiosk where you actually sign in. I was told at a gym that I could only sign up for its services online; the same for a vaccine appointment at CVS. Things that concerned my body could not be addressed in the flesh.

Our receptionists and tellers are just doing their jobs, of course, amid the strangeness of being supplanted. Our new AIs ask lightly if they can help, echoing the staff at the grocery store, drug store, airport — forced to hover like purgatorial spirits. Laura Preston has written about her time working for a real estate firm to train the chatbot that would replace her. For consumers and workers alike, the benefits of this hybrid world have been unevenly reaped.

This is hardly the first time we’ve seen the real world reshaped to fit a dubious idea of efficiency and service. In the mid-twentieth century this country was remade for a machine: the car. Highways bisected cities, urban sprawl siphoned commerce, parking paved over watersheds. The promise of individuation — a single-family house of one’s own — turned to suburban isolation and deeper segregation. Traffic was optimized. For many, the realization has come that maybe this grand new age wasn’t entirely made in mind of how humans and their communities thrive. (Some, like Jane Jacobs, always knew.)....

....MUCH MORE

The Greatest Athlete In History

No hands.

 

Never lost his cigarette.

Kudos to the announcer for maintaining his composure.

"Andreessen Horowitz partner says Google is an ‘amazing example’ of employing people in ‘BS jobs’: ‘Half the white-collar staff probably does no real work’" (GOOG)

From Fortune's Data Sheet, May 7: 

Google might be among corporate America’s favorite success stories, but some people aren’t convinced Big Tech is operating as efficiently as it could be. Indeed, according to one Silicon Valley insider, half the white-collar workers at the tech behemoth aren’t even doing “real work.”

The idea that Big Tech overhires talent to have them on hand for future projects—and ensure they stay out of the hands of rivals—isn’t a new one.

Last year individuals told Fortune they had been “talent penned”: hired by technology companies on six-figure salaries “to do nothing” except complete a 10-minute task every now and again. The sources Fortune spoke to said some hires use their weekdays to learn how to scuba dive, while managers told off the candidates for asking too many questions.

And it seems some companies are also retaining their bloated headcount with people who don’t actually help drive the company forward. In fact in some cases, their presence actually holds back innovation.

That’s according to David Ulevitch, general partner at venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, who said a “bunch of people” in large corporations are working “BS jobs.”

Google is an “amazing example” of such a company, he told Emily Sundberg’s “Feed Me” Substack newsletter.

“Anyone who works in a 10,000+ person or larger white-collar job company knows that a bunch of the people can probably be let go tomorrow and the company wouldn’t really feel the difference, maybe it’d even improve with less people inserting themselves into things,” began the partner at the VC giant also known as a16z, which has backed the likes of Airbnb, Facebook, Instagram, and Roblox.

Another issue with “BS jobs” is that it detracts from shareholder returns, he explained: “Those people aren’t just being useless (and being coddled to think useless jobs actually matter—they don’t), but they are also taking money away from the rest of the workforce’s retirement programs.

“Google is an amazing example of this. I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work,” he continued. “The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts. So real people actually lose out when BS jobs exist.”

Google did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Goggle’s projects
Google may certainly beg to differ. In December the Alphabet-owned company integrated its quickly released Bard chatbot into a new service named Gemini, an AI model trained to behave in humanlike ways. The rollout will unfold in phases, with less sophisticated versions of Gemini called Nano and Pro being immediately incorporated into Google’s AI-powered chatbot Bard and its Pixel 8 Pro smartphone....

"Nvidia Backs UK Self-Driving Startup Wayve in $1 Billion Round"

That's a big venture round.
Some very serious people are taking this autonomous driving stuff seriously.

From Bloomberg, May 6:

  • SoftBank leads funding for artificial intelligence company
  • Wayve is in talks with automakers to launch tech, CEO says 

US chipmaker Nvidia Corp. is investing in Wayve Technologies Ltd., joining a $1.05 billion funding round for the UK startup that wants to get its autonomous-driving technology into cars.

The raise — one of the largest ever for a European artificial intelligence company — was led by SoftBank Group Corp., with existing investor Microsoft Corp. putting in further funds. The valuation was not disclosed.

The cash injection underscores the continued investor demand for AI, and is a boost for the self-driving car industry, which has suffered setbacks in recent years in its efforts to convince regulators driverless cars are safe.

Wayve wants carmakers and other fleet operators to install its technology into their vehicles, rather than own or operate the cars itself. The company received interest from several car companies about investing, but decided not to close off its options in future by partnering with a single manufacturer, Chief Executive Officer Alex Kendall said in an interview at Wayve’s headquarters in London....

....MUCH MORE

Earlier today:
"Tesla Faces Strong Self-Driving Rivals in China" (TSLA)

"Tesla Faces Strong Self-Driving Rivals in China" (TSLA)

From the Wall Street Journal, May 7:

Elon Musk’s visit stoked excitement, but company has plenty of homegrown competition for FSD 

Elon Musk’s recent surprise trip to China paid off handsomely.
Beijing’s tentative backing for Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” technology kicked off the sharpest one-day percentage gain the stock had seen in more than three years. But it may not necessarily be a smooth ride from here on out.

Tesla TSLA will partner with Chinese search giant Baidu BIDU on mapping and navigation. That company operates Waymo-like robotaxi services in more than 10 cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, and had provided more than five million rides cumulatively as of January. It supplied driver-assistance systems to automakers and has partnered with Chinese carmaker Geely on an electric vehicle brand called JiYue.

The prospect of autonomous driving has been one of the reasons Tesla’s shares fetch such a premium to other automakers. Introducing it in a big market like China is certainly moving in the right direction. The availability of FSD would also help Tesla to sell cars against a plethora of rivals in China launching newer and cheaper models. Another big plus is that Tesla could tap in to the data from potentially millions of trips to improve its technology, though it is unclear whether it could use it outside of the country.

Newer and more premium car models in China typically have some type of driver-assistance systems, which may include functions like automatic lane changing to self-steering. All of these systems, including FSD, are still so-called Level 2 autonomous systems that require human supervision and have technical issues to fix. As in the U.S., fully autonomous vehicles face regulatory hurdles to ensure safety.

It will only be possible to compare Tesla’s FSD with competing systems in China once on the road, since they have been operating in different countries, but it faces formidable competition. One potential rival is Huawei, the Chinese tech company that has faced U.S. sanctions in recent years. It isn’t selling its own cars, but Huawei has been working with automakers on design and engineering. The company also supplies software and hardware for autonomous driving....

....MUCH MORE

Monday, May 6, 2024

"Amazon Commits $9 Billion to Double Singapore Cloud Investment" (AMZN)

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, May 6: 

Amazon.com Inc. plans to spend $9 billion expanding its cloud computing infrastructure in Singapore, the latest global tech company to boost investment in Southeast Asia.

The outlay, to be done over the next four years, doubles Amazon Web Services’ investment in Singapore and helps it meet growing customer demand for cloud services and accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence, the company said Tuesday.

AWS, which sells software and data storage for rent from massive server farms, has been expanding its footprint outside the US in recent years, with much of that investment targeting Asian markets. Companies from Microsoft Corp. to Apple Inc. are also growing in the Southeast Asian market of more than 650 million people, partly to diversify away from China and reduce geopolitical risks amid tensions between Beijing and Washington.

Including the Singapore investment, AWS has this year announced plans to spend about $35 billion outside the US, including in Japan, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. The company is also setting up clusters of data centers in Malaysia and Thailand.....

....MUCH MORE

"USDA and China CCP lab are creating deadly BIRD FLU viruses as part of $1m collaboration - and YOU are paying for it"

Three from the Daily Mail. First up, the headliner, April 17:

  • A letter states the research could threaten national security and public health
  • It involves infecting ducks with different viruses to make them more infectious
  • DailyMail.com asked experts if H5N1 case in Texas raises risk of future pandemic

Lawmakers are demanding answers after it was revealed the US is sending taxpayer dollars to a Chinese army lab to make bird flu viruses more dangerous to people.

Eighteen members of Congress are demanding answers from the Department of Agriculture (USDA) about the project, which was first revealed by DailyMail.com.

It is part of a $1million collaboration between the USDA and the CCP-run Chinese Academy of Sciences - the institution that oversees the Wuhan lab at the center of the Covid lab-leak theory.

In a scathing letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack last week, the bipartisan group said: 'This research, funded by American taxpayers, could potentially generate dangerous new lab-created virus strains that threaten our national security and public health.'....

....MUCH MORE

And the next day, April 18:

Fresh bird flu pandemic fears as WHO warns outbreak is of 'enormous concern' and would have 'extraordinarily high' death rates

The increasing spread of bird flu to humans is an 'enormous concern', the World Health Organization has warned.

The virus, an extremely deadly H5N1 subtype, has caused devastating declines in bird populations following its emergence in Europe in 2020.

It has since jumped to mammals such as cows, cats, seals and now people, raising the risk of the virus mutating to become more transmissible.

While there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission, scientists have warned it would be significantly more deadly than Covid....

....MUCH MORE

And today:

CDC admits bird flu has 'pandemic potential' as study shows H5N1 virus has mutated 300 TIMES to become more infectious and resistant to drugs Mutations were revealed in a USDA study involving 26 infected dairy herds

  • Researchers also warned there were signs the virus was adapting to mammals
  • READ MORE: Gruesome first photo of Texas dairy farm worker with bird flu...

....MUCH MORE

I'm getting tired of the so-called scientists and am starting to think quite a few of them should die in prison, just for the last mass murder.

Special bonus link, also May 6:

Chinese scientists create mutant Ebola virus to skirt around biosafety rules - and it causes horrific symptoms and kills group of hamsters

  • The hamsters infected with the constructed virus died within two to three days
  • The results could be a breakthrough in using animals to safely study Ebola
  • READ MORE: Experts reveal what virus could cause the next pandemic

....MUCH MORE

Some candidates for incarceration:

Hey, Remember Those Wacky Dutch Scientists Who Weaponized Bird Flu To Kill Half The World's Population?  

Researchers In Canada Were MAILING Ebola Back To China

 

Investment Banker Says Investment Banking Will Be Important For AI Buildout (GS)

From MarketWatch, May 6:

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says AI ‘is something that people are going to have to think very strategically about’
The investment-banking exec expects AI capital-raising around power and energy to fuel data centers

If you think about the amount of capital that’s going to be necessary to implement [AI], the amount of energy and power that’s going to be necessary to implement it, this is something that people are going to have to think very strategically about….So it’s a big opportunity.’ — Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon on CNBC

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive David Solomon sees ample opportunity for the investment bank to profit from artificial intelligence, both through deal-making as well as in its internal operations.

“[AI] is something that our clients are talking actively about because the changes, the transformation of compute is accelerating at such a pace,” Solomon said Monday in an interview with CNBC at the 2024 Milken Institute Global Conference. 

“The implications on productivity and efficiency in business are going to be enormous,” Solomon said.

The buildout of data centers to fuel AI remains in its early stages, he noted.

Goldman Sachs GS has been using AI in aspects of its business for 20 years, according to Solomon, but the talk about its possibilities has been different this year....

....MUCH MORE

It's Confirmed: You Are Surrounded By Idiots

From the Daily Mail, May 3:

As research warns IQ is falling for first time EVER.... our map reveals average scores in every US state

  • Average IQ levels in the US dropped to 98, falling below the national standards
  • Experts believe the drop in IQ levels is due to increasing technology use

Human intelligence scores are dropping across the US for the first time, research suggests, and experts warn technology could be to blame.

Since 1905, there's been a 30-point increase based on scores in logic, vocabulary, spatial reasoning and visual and mathematical problem-solving skills.

But there are signs that IQ may have dipped, according to a study last year. It found the average IQ score in the US fell from 100 to 98 last year - the first time rates have fallen since we began tracking them.

Now, separate data shows there is a gap of about eight points between states, with New Hampshire ranking first with an average IQ of 103.2.

Those aged 18-22 saw the the biggest drop in IQ tests between 2006 and 2018, the study found....

....MUCH MORE

If interested see also:

Well, It Looks Like You Were Right, You Are Surrounded By Idiots

From the journal Intelligence via ScienceDirect, May - June 2023 Issue:

....1. Introduction
Labeled the Flynn effect (Herrnstein and Murray, 2010), intelligence quotient (IQ) scores substantially increased since 1932 and through the twentieth century, with differences ranging from 3.0 to 5.0 IQ points (0.20 to 0.33 SD) per decade (Flynn, 1984, Flynn, 1987, Flynn, 2007). These findings imply younger generations are expected to have higher IQ scores than the previous cohort. For example, if we tested a sample of Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) when they were 20 years old and compared their scores on the same test to a sample of Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) tested at age 20, we would expect the latter group's IQ scores to be between 0.66 and 1.1 SD higher. This isn't to say that the sample of Millennials are smarter or more able than the group of Baby Boomers, but that a difference in scores exists favoring the younger generation. These results, however, should prompt other important questions – what demographic factors are contributing to the difference? Do these results generalize across adulthood? How long should the trend of increasing scores be expected to persist? Does this trend still exist in the United States?....

....Highlights

A reverse Flynn effect was found for composite ability scores with large US adult sample from 2006 to 2018 and 2011 to 2018.

Domain scores of matrix reasoning, letter and number series, verbal reasoning showed evidence of declining scores.

Three-dimensional rotation scores generally increased from 2011 to 2018.

Differences in ability scores were present regardless of age, education, or gender.

The steepest slopes occurred for ages 18–22 and lower levels of education.

Although it is possible I read more into the study than was actually there, the headline will remain until we see evidence of a resumption of the Flynn Effect.
Previously:
"Norwegians getting dumber"
It's not just Norwegians, that's simply the group that was studied.
We've looked at this before.

Although six months old we're only getting to this because I just heard Professor Flynn was still alive.
(sorry Prof.)
From Norway Today, Dec. 28, 2017....

August 2014
Thanks, I think, to a reader.
"I would be willing to wager that if an average citizen from Athens of 1000 BC were to appear suddenly among us, he or she would be among the brightest and most intellectually alive of our colleagues and companions. We would be surprised by our time-visitor’s memory, broad range of ideas and clear-sighted view of important issues. I would also guess that he or she would be among the most emotionally stable of our friends and colleagues."...
November 2012
"New findings suggest scientists not getting smarter"

"Is China stockpiling resources in case of future war?"

We've speculated that Chinese companies were tipped by the government/party to transform currency into commodities as the yuan weakened from 6.80 to buy a dollar to 7.24.

However, after last night's action we may have to put that theory on the back burner for a bit.

Here's six months of yuan vs dollar, down is stronger yuan:

 Chart Image

TradingView

And from Reuters via the Bangkok Post April 29:

In the eastern Chinese port of Dongying, the start of 2024 has often seen several tankers docked simultaneously discharging Russian crude oil into a new 31.5-million-barrel storage facility completed late last year.

It is, traders say, all part of a concerted and deliberate Chinese effort to build up strategic stockpiles for a perhaps uncertain future.

Estimates of China's total strategic energy reserve vary from 280 to 400 million barrels, the upper amount exceeding the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at roughly 364 million. China consumes some 14 million barrels a day of oil in peacetime.

What does seem clear, however, is that China is deliberately stockpiling at speed, part of a much wider national effort to accumulate essential raw materials and resource.

When it comes to energy, much of the new inflows now come primarily from Russia, whose energy exports to China rose by roughly one quarter last year to a record 2.14 million barrels per day.

That makes the Kremlin Beijing's largest energy supplier for the second year running, overtaking Saudi Arabia -- and allowing China to benefit from substantially discounted Russian oil as US and Western sanctions have turned away multiple other buyers since Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Beijing's stockpiling of oil is just one example of what appears a broad national effort to significantly increase the holdings of key raw materials. It is a move that some increasingly suspect is intended to help insulate Beijing against any future war or international sanctions, such as those that might be sparked by a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

In a piece for international affairs and conflict blogging site "War on the Rocks" published on April 17, Mike Studeman, former commander of the US Office of Naval Intelligence and intelligence and director of the US Indo-Pacific Command, argued that this was part of a much wider process.

"Xi Jinping is preparing his country for a showdown," he wrote, describing the Chinese leader as "militarising Chinese society and steeling his country for a potential high-intensity war."

Part of that, he suggested, included building up strategic stockpiles of essential goods and resources, protecting China against the kind of sanctions imposed on Russia after its Ukraine invasion -- or, indeed, a militarily enforced blockade as part of a regional or global war.

Other examples of heightened preparedness, he said, included the much higher tempo of Chinese military operations around Taiwan -- designed to both exercise China's military and implicitly threaten the government in Taipei with the consequences of its own total military blockade.

US officials say they believe Mr Xi has given his armed forces until 2027 to be prepared to invade Taiwan, although those inside and outside the US government remain divided on whether a decision to actually attack has genuinely been made.

This week, the outgoing head of the US Indo-Pacific Command said Beijing was continuing to plough resources into its military despite economic turmoil caused by a real estate crisis and a slump in US-China trade.....

...China's government buyers have never been ones to turn down a bargain, frequently building up their national stockpiles when short-term prices fall. Newly imposed Western sanctions on Russian nickel, aluminium and copper that entered force this month are seen as likely to spur further Chinese buying.

When it comes to lithium, a vital component in many types of battery, Beijing has bought up not just stock but also processing facilities and mines, including overseas.

In March, investment bank UBS estimated that China might control a third of all global lithium supply as soon as 2025, again exploiting a price crash to further build its holdings....

....MUCH MORE

We still think the PBOC and the government will resume the slow motion devaluation but there is always the consideration of the couple trillion in dollar-denominated debt that gets tougher and tougher to service, much less pay off, as the yuan gets weaker.

Warren Buffet and Ajit Jain On "Full Self-Driving" And Auto Insurance (BRK; TSLA)

How can you tell that Warren values Berkshire's insurance operations above all the rest of the conglomerate?

Because he kept Ajit Jain at the helm of the insurance ops rather than make him heir apparent.

Insurance and reinsurance are the golden goose from which all else flows.

Well, insurance and See's Candy.

From Investor's Business Daily, May 6:

Elon Musk Says Warren Buffett Should Buy Tesla Stock After These Comments 

Tesla (TSLA) Chief Executive Elon Musk on Sunday suggested that Warren Buffett should invest in the EV giant, after the "Oracle of Omaha" addressed Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) efforts during Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKB) annual shareholder meeting. TSLA shares advanced early Monday.

Billionaire Warren Buffett commented over the weekend on the potential risk that auto insurers, such as Berkshire's Geico, could face if Elon Musk and Tesla succeed in their automated driving endeavor.

"If accidents get reduced by 50%, it's going to be good for society and it's going to be bad for insurance companies' volume," Buffett said. "But good for society is what we're looking for."

Berkshire Hathaway Executive Ajit Jain added during the annual meeting that while Tesla feels the number of auto accidents come down because of its technology, repair costs of each accident could go up.

"If you multiply the number of accidents times the cost of each accident, I'm not sure that total number has come down as much as Tesla would like us to believe," Jain said. He added that Tesla insurance so far "hasn't been much of a success."

"Time will tell but I think automation just shifts a lot of the expense from the operator to the equipment provider," Jain said.

Warren Buffett And Elon Musk....

....MUCH MORE

Previously on Buffett's first Berkshire Annual Meeting without Charlie Munger:
Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting: May the Fourth Be With You Warren Edition (BRK)

"FAO Food Price Index up marginally in April, mostly driven by higher world meat prices"

It may be marginal but it is the second consecutive uptick in the index.

From the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, May 3: 

» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) stood at 119.1 points in April 2024, up 0.3 points (0.3 percent) from its revised March level, as an increase in the price index for meat and smaller upturns of vegetable oil and cereal indices slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and dairy products. Although it registered a second monthly uptick in April following a seven-month long declining trend, the FFPI was down 9.6 points (7.4 percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 111.2 points in April, up 0.3 points (0.3 percent) from March but 25 points (18.3 percent) below its April 2023 value. After declining for three consecutive months, average global wheat export prices stabilized in April. Upward price pressure stemming from concerns about unfavourable crop conditions impacting 2024 harvests in parts of the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States of America was countered by continuing strong competition among major exporters. By contrast, maize export prices increased in April, mainly influenced by high import demand amidst mounting logistical disruptions as a result of infrastructure damages in Ukraine and reduced production prospects in Brazil ahead of the start of the main harvest. For other coarse grains, world prices of barley also rose while those of sorghum declined in April. The FAO All Rice Price Index declined by 1.8 percent, largely due to falls in Indica quotations driven by harvest pressure.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 130.9 points, up 0.3 points (0.3 percent) month-on-month and marking a 13-month high. The marginal increase reflects the net effect of higher sunflower and rapeseed oil quotations, more than offsetting slightly lower palm and soyoil prices. International palm oil prices trended lower in April, largely influenced by seasonally higher outputs in leading producing countries and lingering subdued global import demand. Meanwhile, world soyoil prices declined after a short-lived recovery, -reflecting prospects of ample supplies from South America following favourable soybean production outlook. By contrast, international sunflower and rapeseed oil prices kept rising, underpinned by, respectively, continued firm global import purchases and concerns over unfavourable weather conditions for winter rapeseed in parts of Europe.

 

» The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 123.7 points in April, down marginally (0.3 points and 0.3 percent) from March, marking a downturn after six months of continuous increases, but remained 5.5 points (4.3 percent) below its value in the corresponding month last year. International prices of skim milk powder declined the most, primarily underpinned by sluggish import demand for spot supplies amid high exportable availabilities, especially in Western Europe. Meanwhile, world cheese prices fell slightly, mainly reflecting the strengthening of the United States dollar. By contrast, world butter prices continued to increase due to steady import demand and somewhat tighter butter inventories in Western Europe. In the meantime, whole milk powder prices rebounded moderately due to increased demand for medium-term supplies and seasonally declining milk production in Oceania.

» The FAO Meat Price Index* averaged 116.3 points in April, up 1.9 points (1.6 percent) from March, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and making the index stand only marginally (0.4 percent) below its corresponding value one year ago. In April, international poultry meat prices rose, underpinned by steady import purchases by Middle East countries amid the continued challenges to production stemming from avian influenza outbreaks. World bovine meat prices also increased, driven by the continued high demand from major importers, notwithstanding increased supplies from domestic sources in leading importing countries. Ovine meat prices bounced back slightly on market expectations for supplies to seasonally tighten in Oceania. By contrast, world pig meat prices fell marginally, reflecting slack internal demand in Western Europe and persistently lacklustre demand from leading importers, especially China....

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"US shared ‘gobsmacking’ Covid lab leak file with UK"

The only rational response is white-hot irrational rage.

From The Telegraph, May 4:

Evidence supporting theory was presented to Dominic Raab, then the Foreign Secretary – but ‘was ignored’ 

The US shared “gobsmacking” evidence with Britain at the height of the Covid pandemic suggesting a “high likelihood” that the virus had leaked from a Chinese lab, The Telegraph can reveal.

In January 2021, Five Eyes intelligence-sharing nations were convened to discuss the possibility of a lab leak as the US warned that China had covered up research on coronaviruses and military activity at a laboratory in Wuhan.

In a previously unreported phone call that month, Mike Pompeo, the former US secretary of state, presented evidence that supported the lab leak theory to Dominic Raab, then the Foreign Secretary, and representatives from Canada, New Zealand and Australia.

Speaking to The Telegraph, two Trump administration officials accused Mr Raab and the UK Government of ignoring the lab leak theory because of resistance from government scientists who supported the explanation that the virus had jumped between animals and humans.

Mr Pompeo presented a summary of classified American intelligence reports collected in the early days of the pandemic and compiled by the State Department. The intelligence reports themselves are understood to have been shared separately with the UK via the Five Eyes network between October and December 2020.

“We saw several pieces of information and thought that they were, frankly, gobsmacking,” said one former official who worked on the intelligence that informed Mr Pompeo’s report. “They obviously pointed to the high likelihood that this was indeed a lab leak.”

In one document, which has since been released by the State Department under Freedom of Information laws, US officials warned of “consistent stonewalling” by China after the virus was first discovered and accused local officials of “gross corruption and ineptitude”.

The research revealed for the first time that Chinese military officials had worked with the Wuhan Institute of Virology in the years leading up to the pandemic, and that some researchers at the lab had become ill shortly before the virus was first recorded nearby.

It also showed that Chinese scientists had carried out “gain of function” research at the institute, which has since become a key piece of evidence for the lab leak theory.

The theory has become a divisive topic among scientists and government officials in the years following the pandemic and has prompted two investigations by the World Health Organisation, which China has been accused of obstructing.

British government ministers including Boris Johnson initially dismissed the possibility that Covid had been created by scientists, arguing in June 2021 that “the advice that we have had is that it doesn’t look as though this particular disease of zoonotic origin came from a lab”.

Conspiracy
February 19 2020

The Lancet medical journal publishes a joint statement by 27 co-authors stating scientists analysing genomes “overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife”. Suggestions that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin are condemned as “conspiracy theories”.

Two former officials claimed the UK had ignored the evidence presented by the US because ministers saw the lab leak claims as a “radioactive American political issue” fuelled by public disagreement between government scientists and Donald Trump.

“Once the thing became fundamentally political, the ability to pursue it internationally really just collapsed because no one else was interested in touching it,” said one of the officials. “I think [Five Eyes] were kind of annoyed by the way the issue had become treated in US politics.”

Both separately named Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies as one of the leading opponents of the lab leak theory within the British government.

A majority of scientific experts have long said that they believe an animal to human interaction was the most likely cause of the first infection.

However, some Government figures, including Michael Gove, have since said that they believe the virus was “man-made”.

In November, Mr Gove told the Covid Inquiry that there was a “significant body of judgment that believes that the virus itself was man-made – and that presents its own set of challenges”.

Both the FBI and US Department of Energy have said they believe a lab leak is the most likely cause of Covid, while other agencies have said they think it occurred naturally.

Joe Biden, the US president, has said he does not know where the virus started, while the US National Intelligence Council said last year it “probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure”....

....MUCH MORE

"World's most powerful diesel-engine icebreaker makes maiden voyage in Arctic ice"

Ah, an opportunity to revisit the ship's namesake. First though, from The Barents Observer, May 2:

The Viktor Chernomyrdin for the first time sails into the thick sea-ice of the Yenisey Bay.

The 147 meter long vessel that is designed for Arctic operations has made its first voyage into far northern Yenisey Bay, Russian state ship operator Rosatomflot informs.

The powerful ship escorted cargo carrier Ioann Makhmastal to the icy bay where it encountered nuclear icebreaker Ural. The Ural subsequently escorted the cargo ship into the Yenisey river and to the terminal of Tanalau.

The 25 MW Viktor Chernomyrdin is the most powerful conventional icebreaker in the world. It was expected to be extensively employed in remote northern waters, but since its commissioning in November 2020, it has first of all broken ice in the Gulf of Finland.

In 2023, it for the first time sailed into Arctic waters for testing.

According to ship owner Rosmorport, the Viktor Chernomyrdin can provide not only icebreaker escorts, but also take part in Arctic research expeditions, transport containers and cargo, and operate as fire extinguishing ship....

....MORE

The article points out that Viktor Chernomyrdin was Prime Minister of Russia but he was more than that. Here's a 2020 post on the boat and the man,

"World's most powerful conventional icebreaker will rarely go Arctic"

This, as we shall see, is perfect.

From The Barents Observer:

The diesel-engined Viktor Chernomyrdin has officially entered service in the Baltic Sea. It might never be seen in Arctic waters.  

With its 25 MW capacity, the new icebreaker is the most power non-nuclear icebreaker in the world. But it will still not have the Arctic has its prime operational area.

The vessel named after Russia’s late prime minister will serve in the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea, the country’s United Shipbuilding Corporation informs.

According to the shipbuilders, the 147 meter long vessel capable of breaking through up to two meter thick ice, is destined for the Gulf of Finland. But it can also work in the Arctic and the Antarctic, the Corporation adds.

The flag was raised on the vessel in a ceremony in St.Petersburg 3rd December. On site was President Putin who in a statement underlined that that the Viktor Chernomyrdin can also be applied on the Northern Sea Route....

....MUCH MORE

It was ten years ago this week that we learned of Viktor's death.

In addition to being a Prime Minister, Chernomyrdin was the head of the Russian national gas company, Gazprom. And in addition to that, he was an internationally-known, albeit decidedly Russian in tone, wordsmith. Via that decade old post: 

....UPDATE: Viktor is Dead. From FP's Passport blog, Nov. 4, 2010:

Russia's Yogi Berra

Former Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin passed away on Wednesday morning at the age of 72. Best known in the West for co-chairing the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission on nuclear safety, which largely failed in its goal of promoting bilateral cooperation between Washington and Moscow, Chernomyrdin presided over an extremely turbulent period of Russian history, including the controversial privatizations of the mid-1990s and the First Chechen War....
...Chernomyrdin is survived by ("approximately") two sons and a wealth of unforgettable lines. Here are a few of the best:
On economic reform: "We wanted better, but it turned out as always."  
On his background on energy minister: "I have grown up in the atmosphere of oil and gas."  
On dealing with the frequently uncooperative Duma: "Government is not the organ in which one uses his tongue only."  
On Russia's unstable party system: "Whatever party we establish, it always turns out to be the Soviet Communist Party."  

On his critics: "If your hands are itchy, scratch yourselves in other spots."

On the future: "We will live so well that our children and grandchildren will envy us!"

On Ukraine's Orange Revolution:  "American ears are sticking out everywhere."

On his family: "I have approximately two sons."

On political efficiency: "We accomplished all items: from A to B."

On women: "You can't scare a woman with high-heeled shoes."

On language: I can talk to anyone in any language, but I try not to use that instrument."

On the life of the mind: "I am far from thought."...

Sunday, May 5, 2024

Colleges May Face Short Term Liquidity Crunch As Donors Pull Back

They'll face it, they won't experience it though. But we've seen this movie before.

There are many ways for the endowments to raise cash, unlike the situation in the depths of the Great Recession. 

Setting the stage, in June 2008, as the cracks were appearing but being ignored we posted "Come on Lucky Seven: CalPERS Bets on Alternative Investments" and "Pension Funds Drive Growth Of Alternative Assets. And: CalPERS Up 68% on Commodities; Down 31% on Real Estate. Action, Baby, Action!".

Followed by a somewhat snarky October 2008 post:

"Calpers Sells Stock Amid Rout to Raise Cash for Obligations"

This is hedge fund behavior, selling your most liquid investments to prop up the illiquid....

...At the same time PrivateEquityRealEstate is reporting the pension behemoth has found a fund with really good projections:

CalPERS invests $400m in Sternlicht’s latest fund

The California pension has committed $400 million to Starwood’s $3bn Global Hospitality Fund II, which is targeting 20% IRRs. This summer, Sternlicht said he was rapidly expanding his latest hotel brand: the Baccarat, based on the famous crystals....

Following Long Holiday Chinese Stocks Tipped To Trade Higher

Before gentle reader decides to run to the parimutual window with cash in both hands—a sight I once witnessed and which prompted my companion to muse, "It would be better if he were running from the window"—before racing to get one's bets down, the tipster is me.

However, the blog has exhibited a bit of form on the Chinese economy and equities and following the $6 trillion dollar decline in Chinese stocks the odds have shaded a bit toward the bulls.

Lifted in toto from Bloomberg, April 30:

Chinese Stocks See Longest Foreign-Buying Streak in a Year

Foreign funds boosted holdings of Chinese shares for the third straight month, with positive policy tone from the Politburo meeting expected to bolster sentiment after the Labor Day holiday.

Overseas investors added 6 billion yuan ($829 million) of onshore equities via the trading links with Hong Kong in April, notching the longest run of monthly net purchases since March 2023. While the flows would have been negative had it not been for a record one-day buying last week, foreign investors may continue to pile in after the country’s top leaders hinted at further measures to support the ailing property market.

The CSI 300 Index ended April with a 1.9% gain, its third monthly advance. Mainland markets reopen on Monday. 

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ieF7FQzoVkFQ/v2/pidjEfPlU1QWZop3vfGKsrX.ke8XuWirGYh1PKgEw44kE/-1x-1.png

And from Nikkei Asia, April 29:

China stocks rally as investor 'fear of missing out' spreads
Geopolitical risks, 'dire' housing market still seen discouraging long-term bets

China stocks have gained momentum as market players scurry to avoid missing rallies driven by supportive policies, analysts say, while cautioning that the upswing does not yet reflect a return of long-term investors.

A series of measures announced since mid-April to support the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets are playing a key role, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a report published Monday.

"Portfolio inflows have improved moderately in recent weeks from both benchmark-unconstrained and mutual fund mandates," wrote analysts led by Kinger Lau at Goldman Sachs. But positions are "still broadly conservative among investors. This suggests that the setup for FOMO (fear of missing out) might be building if the positive momentum extends, as partly suggested by the all-time daily record of US$3.1 billion northbound inflows last Friday."

Foreign investors trade A-shares -- stocks of China-based companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and traded in yuan -- through the Connect system linking Hong Kong and the mainland. On Friday, the network recorded the largest single-day net investment since the scheme opened in 2014, at 22.45 billion yuan ($3.1 billion).

Buying of A-shares continued on Monday, when foreign investors snapped up the equivalent of 10.9 billion yuan worth of such equities, the sixth-largest single-day net investment this year, data from financial information provider Wind shows.

Hong Kong stocks have been on a roll as well. Led by tech stocks like Meituan, JD and Kuaishou, the Hang Seng Index cleared the 18,000 mark at one point on Monday morning, a level not seen since November....

....MUCH MORE

And finally, a similar take from Reuters BreakingViews, May 3:

FOMO finally returns to Chinese equities  

After a $5 trillion fall, green shoots are appearing in Chinese equities: Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index is up 20% from its most recent low in January and is gaining momentum. Shares traded on the mainland are up 16%. Unlike previous rallies which quickly fizzled out, these look better supported.

Inflows to both destinations have been prodigious, with offshore investors pouring 22.5 billion yuan ($3.11 billion) into onshore stocks in a single day last Friday. More important than the size of those flows is their composition.
 
It's not just China's national team of state-owned entities buying. Local traders say global long-only investors are returning to the market at a meaningful scale for the first time since early 2023, when Beijing finally ended onerous Covid-19 restrictions.
 
There is an external push in China's favour too: falls in U.S. equities spurred by the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer interest rates and the weak Japanese yen have made cheap Chinese stocks an attractive hedge, both globally and within the region. Chinese shares trade at 9.3 times forward price-to-earnings, half their ratio in 2021, LSEG data shows....
....MUCH MORE
 
Some recent posts on the equities with Chinese characteristics (apologies to Deng Xiaoping):
April 28, 2024
Equities: We 'May' Have A Breakout In The Chinese CSI300 Index

It's "May" because, although we waited patiently for over a year before calling it, we were still early on the big change of direction. As recounted March 12:

On December 27, 2023 we posted "A Bottom In Chinese Equities".

We were early. The Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI300 Index continued lower for another month.

Chart Image

TradingView

Finally on February 1, the rat-bastard turned up with some conviction.

Here's the latest, a poke above triple-top resistance:

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_fcbadbe36331f95c335d43fbc2aadaa6.png

Investing.com (also on blogroll at right)

What you want to see is today's action holding and tomorrow some follow-through. 

If that happens you can start to get comfortable with the idea that the sellers are out of shares they want to let go at that particular level.

March 12, 2024
"Chinese Stocks Gain 20% From Lows, Fueling Market Bottom Calls"
That sort of headline is a bit scary. What you want to see, to get the most from these major turning points is gloom, doom, despair and most importantly, disbelief.

But that cat's out of the bag. From TradingView, our bogey, the Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI 300 Index:

Chart Image

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, March 12....
March 10, 2024
"Nervous about the U.S. market at all-time highs? Buy China stocks"
That's their headline not ours. We don't get nervous, preferring instead to go directly to sheer terror....
 
The March 12 post has links to most of our "adventures in bottom-calling" from that December 2023 post if one is inclined to verify veracity.

"New York and other states are using AI to hunt down wealthy remote workers and demand more tax"

If you move, you have to actually move, no faking, no playing games. Some no-nonsense advisors say it is best to cut all ties with the jurisdiction you are fleeing.

From Business Insider, April 16:

  • New York is using AI-generated letters to challenge remote workers moving to low-tax states.
  • CNBC reported that AI is helping with staff shortages in New York's tax department.
  • The state said there was an increase in audits in 2022 but a decrease in auditors. 

New York is the millionaire capital of the world, but some of those who want to stay rich are fleeing to low-tax states like Florida and Texas.

The state tax department has a solution: AI letters.

It is sending hundreds of thousands of AI-generated letters, mostly to wealthy remote workers or those who require a change in tax residency, according to CNBC.

The letters could help beat staff shortages, although it's unclear if this is part of the reason they were implemented.

The state reported an increase in audits in 2022 but a decrease in auditors.

There were 771,000 audits in New York in 2022, according to a recent report by the state Department of Taxation and Finance cited by CNBC. That's a 56% increase from the previous year, the outlet said.

Meanwhile, the number of New York-based auditors declined by 5% to under 200 in the same year because of tight budgets, CNBC said.

Mark Klein, partner and chairman emeritus at Hodgson Russ LLP, told CNBC that the tax department is using sophisticated technology "to determine the best audit candidates," with a focus on wealthy individuals who have relocated from high-tax states to low-tax states, such as Florida or Texas....

....MUCH MORE