Thursday, July 28, 2016

BlackRock Now Expects NEGATIVE Annualized Returns From 10-Year Treasuries, Lowers Expectations On Most Other Asset Classes

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10-year yield 1.5110% From BlackRock, Jul 25, 2016: Key points We have lowered our five-year return assumptions for most asset classe...

Population, Income and Growth: "Is the Semi-Permanent "Gunpowder Empire" Historical Scenario Plausible? Perhaps Not..."

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From Brad DeLong: Riffing off of yesterday's: : "'Gunpowder Empire': Should We Generalize Mark Elvin's High-Level Equ...

Big Money: "An Auction House Learns the Art of Shadow Banking"

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From Bloomberg, July 27: Lending by Sotheby’s tripled to $682 million in four years Malaysian financier in money-laundering probe g...

The Dollar and Oil Contango: Expect the Return of Storage Builds

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Both WTI and Brent are down over a half-percent, $41.63 and $43.16 respectively. This while the dollar index is down 0.29% and the buck is ...

International Grain Council Expects Near Record Production (on top of huge carryover)

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There is just so much of the stuff. Last Chg Corn 340-4 -2-4 Soybeans 984-2 -1-6 Wheat 412-0 -2-6 From Agrimoney: World...

Color Revolution: "Does China Think America Is Using a 'Wedge Strategy'?"

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Watching some of the Kagan-Nuland diplo-bros it's more of a wedgie strategy. Bunch of clowns. From The National Interest: The pe...
Wednesday, July 27, 2016

The Annotated Fed Statement

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A handy format from The Aleph Blog: June 2016 July 2016 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in Ap...

"Economists React to the Fed Statement: ‘Leans Less Dovish’"

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From Real Time Economics: Analysts split on whether a brighter view of the economy signals a potential September rate rise The Federal R...

"Oil Crashes To $41 Handle After Surprise Inventory Build, Production Rise"

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There is just so much of the stuff, in its various states of refinement, around. And once again the reported API figure for crude had the o...

"EU Plans Database of Bitcoin Users with Identities and Wallet Addresses"

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From Softpedia: EU gets closer to ending Bitcoin anonymity The European Commission is proposing the creation of a database that will h...

Agricultural Commodities: "Rabobank sees wheat and corn on 'race to the bottom'"

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Rabo is historically better on this stuff than most of the other big banks. For today however the headline crops are neck-and-neck to the u...

Richard Koo on Why Helicopter Money Just Won’t Work (as God is my witness I thought turkeys could fly)

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From FT Alphaville: Koo on why helicopter money just won’t work Helicopter money won’t work in Japan, says Nomura’s Richard Koo in a no...

PIMCO: "Commodity Investing: A New Take on Equities Versus Futures"

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Roll yield! Sharpe ratios!! Risk!!! From Pacific Investment Management Co: A combination of commodity futures and broad stocks seems to ...

Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo's Mean Reversion Strategy Is Tested In Today's Market

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From Institutional Investor: Jeremy Grantham and Ben Inker have a long track record of successfully calling market bubbles, but their inve...

Oil: The Saudi's 'Take-the-Money-and-Run' Strategy

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We've seen this argument made in relation to either a fear on the part of the royals of ISIS or of a global warming 'keep it in the ...
Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Nest Thermostats Go Offline During Heat Wave

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From The Next Web: Nest error is breaking remote control on some thermostats and smoke detectors Nest's app has run into some sort o...

Knowledge@Wharton: "Are Italy’s Banks a ‘Doom-Loop’ Risk that Could Bury the Eurozone?"

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From K@W: Eight years after the global financial crisis, Italy’s economy remains weak and the country’s banks have a very high rate of sh...

Australia's Biggest Grain Exporter Plans 'Emergency' Storage For Bumper Harvest

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Today it seems to be wheat's turn to get sold off. These figures are approaching all-in cost of production meaning they aren't the ...

"What to Expect From Apple's Third Quarter Earnings Results Today" (AAPL)

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From MacRumors: Apple today will release its fiscal third quarter earnings results , reflecting a three-month period that ended in late Ju...

"Wood Mackenzie: More oil firms on track to live with $40 crude"

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Not helpful for folks hoping that 'low prices are the cure for low prices'. WTI $42.89 -0.24 after trading as low as $42.36; Brent ...