Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Update On The Hezbollah Pager Explosions: 4000 Wounded, Up To 500 Blinded

If true this would be one of the largest mass blindings in history. More after the jump.

From The American Center for Levant Studies, September 17/18:

THE EARLY PHOENIX Special Report

Sept 17, 2024

★ ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR

  1. Pager Explosion Cripple Hezbollah: 4,000 Injured, 25% Leadership Affected

Around 4,000 Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon were injured after their communication pagers exploded. Eleven members of Hezbollah, including leaders, were confirmed dead in today’s attack with 400 in critical condition and 500 losing their sight. This significant blow left 10% to 25% of the party’s leadership out of service, marking a major disruption in Hezbollah’s command structure. Experts in the region are calling the incident “checkmate” for Hezbollah. Explosions spread into Syria as devices detonated in a car in Damascus, injuring 18 fighters.

  1. PETN Explosives in Pagers Cause Vibrations and Detonations

The pagers, acquired as part of a technological upgrade, were brought to Lebanon five months ago from the Taiwanese company Gold Apollo. The explosive material was inserted before the devices arrived in Lebanon. Initial reports indicate they contained PETN, a powerful explosive material. Each device had no more than 20 grams of PETN, known for its strength and sensitivity. While PETN doesn’t explode on impact or ignition, it can be triggered by continuous vibrations. For reference, 1 kilogram of PETN equals 1.25 kilograms of TNT. Repeated, continuous messages sent to the pagers caused prolonged vibrations, leading to the explosion....

....MORE

Apparently what happened is either multiple vibrations or sustained (ten seconds or more) vibrations allowed the Hezbollah members time to take the pagers off their belts or out of their pockets to lift the pagers to their faces and look at the incoming message.

And now the AP is reporting the toll of today's wave of explosions:

Live updates: Second wave of deadly device explosions injures at least 300 in Lebanon

The only two similar instances of mass blinding I can think of also occurred in wartime, one accidental one deliberate:

The explosion of a munitions ship in Halifax Nova Scotia:

British Journal of Opthmology - The Halifax disaster (1917): eye injuries and their care

Abstract
Explosions, man‐made and accidental, continue to require improved emergency medical responses. In the 1917 Halifax Explosion, an inordinate number of penetrating eye injuries occurred. A review of their treatment provides insight into a traumatic event with unique ophthalmological importance. Archived personal and government documents relating to the Halifax Explosion were reviewed at the Public Archives of Nova Scotia, Canada, along with a review of current literature. Twelve ophthalmologists treated 592 people with eye injuries and performed 249 enucleations. Sixteen people had both eyes enucleated. Most of the eye injuries were caused by shards of shattered glass. A Blind Relief Fund was established to help treat and rehabilitate the visually impaired. The injured were given pensions through the Canadian National Institute for the Blind, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, which continue to this day. Sympathetic ophthalmia was the feared complication for penetrating eye injuries and a common indication for enucleation in 1917. Even so, the severity and the overwhelming number of eye injuries sustained during the Halifax Explosion made it impossible for lengthy eye‐saving procedures to be performed. Enucleation was often the only option....

So 265 people had at least one eye removed. Two thousand killed and nine thousand were injured.

And via Medievalists.net:

Did Basil II the ‘Bulgar-slayer’ blind 15,000 prisoners?

The ancient story as re-told by Barbara Tuchman was that 1-in-100 were blinded in one eye to leave someone to guide, while the other 99 were blinded in both. Upon seeing his blind army the Bulgarian Emperor Samuel collapsed and later died.

at

Reminder: "War Between Israel and Iran Is Inevitable"

Following on the double humiliation of the assassination of Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh in his Tehran guest house in July and the attack of the pagers yesterday, over 3000 wounded from another Iranian proxy Hezbollah, and including the now blind Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amini, a repost from June 26:

Just as the Jews mean it when they say "Never again," The Iranians mean it when they say they will destroy, annihilate, eradicate Israel. Some examples after the jump. 

A twofer. First up, the Washington Post, June 19:

Iran signals a major boost in nuclear program at key site
Hundreds of new centrifuges would triple Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity at a deeply buried underground nuclear facility. 

A major expansion underway inside Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the site’s production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal if it chooses to, according to confidential documents and analysis by weapons experts.

Inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed new construction activity inside the Fordow enrichment plant, just days after Tehran formally notified the nuclear watchdog of plans for a substantial upgrade at the underground facility built inside a mountain in north-central Iran.

And from the Wall Street Journal, June 25, the headliner:

The question is now or later. Strategy argues for now, even if the politics might be better later. 

Israel faces a strategic choice with regard to Iran—war now or war later. The political conditions for war now are poor. The strategic conditions later will only grow worse. 

Iran’s goal is to destroy Israel as a uniquely Jewish state through a strategy of attrition. The mullahs hope to bind Israel in a series of conflicts and pressure it from multiple angles while using diplomacy and media manipulation to prolong the conflict. Tehran understands the potency of Israel’s military, which has adapted well to difficult urban and subterranean combat conditions in Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces field formidable air, artillery and armored units that, if unleashed in the north, would threaten the existence of Hezbollah, Iran’s most capable proxy. The Iranian deterrence strategy couples pressure on the U.S. with the threat of large-scale rocket and missile attacks against critical Israeli infrastructure.

Hamas is the most apparent element of Iran’s strategy. Iran wants the terrorist organization not only to maintain control of Gaza but to catapult itself into control of the Palestinian movement. The best way to do that is to compel the Israelis to accept a cosmetically appealing “peace agreement” involving the Arab states that allows Hamas to integrate into the Palestinian Authority and co-opt its necrotic rival, Fatah. The West Bank could then become another axis of pressure on Israel....

....MORE

The absolutely first-rate translators at the Middle East Media Research Institute have been translating the Persian/Farsi threats into English for a very long time:

Israel's Eradication – An Ideological And Practical Goal Of Iran's Islamic Revolution Regime

....Iranian Regime Officials On Destroying Israel – From Previous Years 

As noted, the policy of Israel's destruction is a central tenet of the Islamic regime's ideology, and it has been expressed consistently since the founding of the regime. The following are some examples of such expressions, from previous MEMRI reports:

And more recently, August 5, 2024 - Iran: "Advisor to IRGC Commander: Zionist Regime Will Not See 80th Birthday, Heavy Blow Awaiting It"

Inevitable.

The last shot will be fired from one of the Israeli submarines, destroying Tehran.

But before that another six million Jews will die and Israel will have ceased to exist.

at

Big Money: "Microsoft, BlackRock form group to raise $100 billion to invest in AI data centers and power"

From CNBC, September 17:

  • The Global Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Investment Partnership is initially looking to raise $30 billion for new and existing data centers.
  • The fundraising, which could total $100 billion, will also be used to invest in the energy infrastructure needed to power AI workloads.
  • Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the initiative brings “together financial and industry leaders to build the infrastructure of the future and power it in a sustainable way.”

Microsoft and BlackRock are part of a group of companies collaborating to pull together up to $100 billion to develop data centers for artificial intelligence and the energy infrastructure to power them.

The companies are part of the Global Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Investment Partnership, or GAIIP, which was announced in a press release on Tuesday. The other participants are Global Infrastructure Partners, or GIP, an infrastructure investor that is being acquired by BlackRock, and MGX, a tech investor in the United Arab Emirates.

“We are committed to ensuring AI helps advance innovation and drives growth across every sector of the economy,” said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, in a statement. He said the initiative brings “together financial and industry leaders to build the infrastructure of the future and power it in a sustainable way.”

The group aims to assemble $30 billion of initial capital, with a future goal of bringing in up to $100 billion, including from debt financing.

Tech companies have been racing to build data centers full of Nvidia graphics processing units, or GPUs, that can run generative AI models such as those enabling OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot. Those GPUs consume serious power, and soaring demand has created a bottleneck for standing up new facilities....

....MUCH MORE

Possibly also of interest, the infrastructure series:

February 23 = The Infrastructure Theme Is For Real (PWR)

January 31:"KKR raises $6.4 bln for its Asian infrastructure fund" (KKR)

January 8 "East Coast land continues to collapse at a worrying rate It's steadily sinking or subsiding, which is destabilizing levees, roads, and airports."
January 8: "There’s a Shortage of Electrical Wires, Transformers. That’s Good for These Stocks."
January 12: (Big) Batteries: "‘World leading' Tesla battery online to help kick coal out of Hawaii" (TSLA)
January 12: BlackRock Goes Large-by-Large In Infrastructure (BLK)"
January 15: "Investors look set to pour cash into infrastructure following BlackRock acquisition" (BLK)
January 16: "BlackRock Acquisition Triples Its Business of Building Airports, Roads, and Utilities"
I'm telling ya, this is a big deal. Not just for the $12.5 billion purchase price but for the $100+ billion in assets that GIP manages.
January 23: Minerals-for-Infrastructure: "Congo and China Talking $7 Billion In Finance, Tshisekedi Says"
January 23: DEI and ESG Live On, We Just Won't Talk About Them (BLK)
That's one lesson from BlackRock's purchase of Global Infrastructure Partners.
January 29: RAND: "The U.S. Must Close the Long-Distance Power Transmission Gap with China" Or, as the Financial Times put it, a bit more succinctly, February 1, 2024:

KKR has raised a record $6.4bn for its latest Asian infrastructure fund, capping a month of frenzied investment activity in the sector at a time when broader private equity fundraising has slowed.
—KKR raises record $6.4bn for Asia fund in infrastructure rush

Related, December 4, 2023:
Russell Napier Called It: "The Eyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US"

And possibly most important:

March 18 - In Nvidia's World, If You (and your company) Don't Have Money You Will Not Be Able To Compete (NVDA)

at

Ukraine Is Bombing Russia's Far North

That's a long way from Kyiv.

Five from the Barents Observer. First up, September 16:

War in the Arctic
OPINION EDITORIAL: Multiple low-flying Ukrainian drones loaded with explosives heading towards Olenya airfield have over the week caused fear among people in Murmansk region. Russia has itself to thank for bringing act of war inside the Arctic Circle for the first time since Second War II.

How Ukraine manage to navigate drones far north to the Kola Peninsula is still not detailed. But despite very long distance, it comes as no surprise that Olenya airfield is a high-value target. Tu-95MS long-range bombers are frequently flying south into launch-positions for sending loads of deadly cruise missiles towards civilian targets all over Ukraine. The Kh-101 missile that hit the Okhmatdyt National Children’s Specialised Hospital in Kyiv on the morning of 8 July was likely launched from a plane from Olenya airfield.

Drones approached the vicinity of Olenya at least two times last week. Murmansk governor Andrei Chibis assured his fellow citizens that the drones were eliminated. It is important for the governor to keep calm. His job is to counteract panic. That is not always easy in densely populated areas. On September 11 the air alarm was activated in City of Murmansk. Pre-planned, authorities said simultaneously as social media was packed with information about two incoming UAVs and airspace was closed all over the Kola Peninsula....

....MUCH MORE

September 11 - Governor: Murmansk is under drone attack

September 11 - Ukrainian attack on Kola Peninsula comes as Russian Navy launches strategic exercise

September 12 -  "We are all afraid," woman in Olenegorsk says as Ukrainian drones attack local airbase

September 12 - Ukrainian drones are on the way. Murmansk again closes airspace

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Capital Markets: "Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker Says US Economy is Expanding at 3% Clip for 3rd Quarter in Past 4, and the Fed is Going to Do What?"

Senator Warren is calling for a three-quarter point cut.*

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The dollar remains offered ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome. That no official has pushed back against the press story that some suspect was planted by the Fed Chair (will a reporter specifically ask him about it today?) during a quiet period should not be taken as evidence one way or the other. And many understand that it is not unprecedented. Still, we note that the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker was revised yesterday to 3.0% growth in Q3. The federal government is running a budget deficit around 6.5% of GDP despite the above trend growth and now the central bank is poised to cut interest rates aggressively starting today with the economy expanding at 3% for the second consecutive quarter, which would be the third quarter in four of such growth. The focus of the Fed meeting will be on the size of today's move and signal through the Summary of Economic Projections that magnitude of rate cuts projected for the remainder of this year and next.

Chinese markets re-open for the first time since the end of last week. The yuan strengthened with the help of falling US yields and a stronger yen. The equity market was narrowly mixed and mixed in the Asia Pacific region as whole. South Korean markets remained closed for the extended national holiday and Hong Kong markets were closed. The Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday's gains while US index futures are slightly firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields are 3-5 bp higher in Europe and the 10-year US Treasury yield is up a couple basis points to 3.66%. The 10-year Chinese government bond yield fell to a new low near 2.03%. Gold is consolidating in a mostly $2566-$2576 range today. The record high as set on Monday slightly below $2590. November WTI reached a two-week high yesterday near $70.65 but has come back offered today. It below $69 in Europe. Yesterday's low was around $68.50. A loss of it would weaken the technical tone and warn of a test on $67.00-$67.50....

....MUCH MORE
*Elizabeth Warren calls for emergency-like Fed rate cut ASAP

"This is 911, what's your emergency?"

at

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Call Me Maybe Not

Carly Rae meets Psy:



First Round Capital and portfolio companies, Holiday card 2012, last seen in 2013's "Happy Holidays From First Round Capital". Please don't page me.
at

Another Five-Year Anniversary: The Repo Spike Of 2019

The explanations proffered over the years do not satisfy.

As one example, the corporate tax payments due on the 16th of September were in the rear-view mirror on the 17th, the day of the spike, a fact pointed out by the authors of the Treasury's Office of Financial Research retrospective. There are other anomalies that we will look at over the coming days. 

From the OFR Blog, April 25, 2023:

OFR Identifies Factors That May Have Contributed to the 2019 Spike in Repo Rates

Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official positions or policy of the OFR or Treasury.

A convergence of events caused a 2019 spike in repo rates, according to a new OFR Working Paper. On Sept. 17, 2019, intraday repo rates rose to more than 300 basis points above the upper end of the federal funds target range. This was 30 times larger than the same spread during the preceding week. In “Anatomy of the Repo Rate Spikes in September 2019,” the authors explain that the spike resulted in large part from a confluence of fundamental factors—large Treasury issuances, corporate tax deadlines, and an overall lower level of reserves—that, when taken individually, would not have been nearly as disruptive. In addition to these fundamental factors, the authors provide new evidence highlighting the role that limited transparency and market segmentation played in exacerbating the spike.

What Happened in Repo Markets?
Stresses in the U.S. repurchase (repo) markets, while uncommon, can occur unexpectedly. In mid-September 2019, repo rates spiked dramatically, rising to as high as 10% intraday. The disruption began on September 16—the day of Treasury settlement, which coincided with corporate tax deadlines. The combination of these two developments resulted in a large transfer of reserves from the financial market to the government, which created a mismatch in the demand for and the supply of repo that drove rates higher. However, even with this transfer in reserves, it is not immediately clear why repo rates rose as much as they did, especially since the peak of the stress occurred on September 17, after the Treasury settlement and corporate tax deadlines had already taken place.

To aid in understanding the source of stress, Figure 1 below sheds light on the intraday pattern of rates among different segments of the market, using unique data from the OFR’s cleared repo collection.

Figure 1. Intraday Rates on Sept 16-18 in Tri-party and DVP

OFR Identifies Factors That May Have Contributed to the 2019 Spike in Repo Rates

Note: Rates are volume-weighted averages.

Sources: OFR Cleared Repo Collection, Office of Financial Research

On September 16, rates did not increase until the afternoon and began increasing in the DVP-brokered market, most of which consists of trading between primary and nonprimary dealers. Volume was relatively low because 70%-80% of the day’s trades had already been negotiated by the time these spikes erupted, suggesting that only a limited number of firms were impacted by higher rates.

However, on September 17, the average rate in the tri-party segment (which is composed of banks and money market funds lending to dealers) rose to 6% and remained high for much of the traded volume that day. Following the Federal Reserve’s intervention at 9:30 a.m., rates declined substantially in the DVP-brokered market but remained elevated in other segments of the market throughout the day.

What Caused the Spike?
Rates in the repo market are highly dependent on the supply of Treasuries and reserves. By mid-September 2019, aggregate reserves had declined to a multiyear low of less than $1.4 trillion while net Treasury positions held by primary dealers had reached an all-time high. As a result, the reserve constraints on banks and bank-affiliated dealers may have played a contributing role in the repo spike....

....MORE

If interested see also the Federal Reserve Board's after-action report at FEDS Notes February 27, 2020: 

What Happened in Money Markets in September 2019?
We've been picking at this scab for a few years and as noted above, will continue picking.
There is something odd about the timing and extent of the dislocation that is intriguing as can be. 

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"How to Think About Risk: Howard Marks’ Comprehensive Guide"

It's the losses that get you, not the bouncing around.

From the CFA Institute's Enterprising Investor blog, September 13:

Risk is not simply a matter of volatility. In his new video series, How to Think About Risk, Howard Marks — Co-Chairman and Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management — delves into the intricacies of risk management and how investors should approach thinking about risk.  Marks emphasizes the importance of understanding risk as the probability of loss and mastering the art of asymmetric risk-taking, where the potential upside outweighs the downside.

Below, with the help of our Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, we summarize key lessons from Marks’s series to help investors sharpen their approach to risk.

Risk and Volatility Are Not Synonyms

One of Marks’s central arguments is that risk is frequently misunderstood. Many academic models, particularly from the University of Chicago in the 1960s, defined risk as volatility because it was easily quantifiable. However, Marks contends that this is not the true measure of risk. Instead, risk is the probability of loss. Volatility can be a symptom of risk but is not synonymous with it. Investors should focus on potential losses and how to mitigate them, not just fluctuations in prices.

Asymmetry in Investing Is Key

A major theme in Marks’s philosophy is asymmetry — the ability to achieve gains during market upswings while minimizing losses during downturns. The goal for investors is to maximize upside potential while limiting downside exposure, achieving what Marks calls “asymmetry.” This concept is critical for those looking to outperform the market in the long term without taking on excessive risk.

Risk Is Unquantifiable

Marks explains that risk cannot be quantified in advance, as the future is inherently uncertain. In fact, even after an investment outcome is known, it can still be difficult to determine whether that investment was risky. For instance, a profitable investment could have been extremely risky, and success could simply be attributed to luck. Therefore, investors must rely on their judgment and understanding of the underlying factors influencing an investment’s risk profile, rather than focusing on historical data alone....

....MUCH MORE

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"Inside Google’s 7-Year Mission to Give AI a Robot Body" (GOOG)

A lot of companies, with a lot of money, seem to think it is time for the robots.

From Wired, September 10: 

As the head of Alphabet’s AI-powered robotics moonshot, I came to believe many things. For one, robots can’t come soon enough. For another, they shouldn’t look like us.

It was early January 2016, and I had just joined Google X, Alphabet’s secret innovation lab. My job: help figure out what to do with the employees and technology left over from nine robot companies that Google had acquired. People were confused. Andy “the father of Android” Rubin, who had previously been in charge, had suddenly left. Larry Page and Sergey Brin kept trying to offer guidance and direction during occasional flybys in their “spare time.” Astro Teller, the head of Google X, had agreed a few months earlier to bring all the robot people into the lab, affectionately referred to as the moonshot factory.

I signed up because Astro had convinced me that Google X—or simply X, as we would come to call it—would be different from other corporate innovation labs. The founders were committed to thinking exceptionally big, and they had the so-called “patient capital” to make things happen. After a career of starting and selling several tech companies, this felt right to me. X seemed like the kind of thing that Google ought to be doing. I knew from firsthand experience how hard it was to build a company that, in Steve Jobs’ famous words, could put a dent in the universe, and I believed that Google was the right place to make certain big bets. AI-powered robots, the ones that will live and work alongside us one day, was one such audacious bet.

Eight and a half years later—and 18 months after Google decided to discontinue its largest bet in robotics and AI—it seems as if a new robotics startup pops up every week. I am more convinced than ever that the robots need to come. Yet I have concerns that Silicon Valley, with its focus on “minimum viable products” and VCs’ general aversion to investing in hardware, will be patient enough to win the global race to give AI a robot body. And much of the money that is being invested is focusing on the wrong things. Here is why.

The Meaning of “Moonshot”
Google X—the home of Everyday Robots, as our moonshot came to be known—was born in 2010 from a grand idea that Google could tackle some of the world’s hardest problems. X was deliberately located in its own building a few miles away from the main campus, to foster its own culture and allow people to think far outside the proverbial box. Much effort was put into encouraging X-ers to take big risks, to rapidly experiment, and even to celebrate failure as an indication that we had set the bar exceptionally high. When I arrived, the lab had already hatched Waymo, Google Glass, and other science-fiction-sounding projects like flying energy windmills and stratospheric balloons that would provide internet access to the underserved.

What set X projects apart from Silicon Valley startups is how big and long-term X-ers were encouraged to think. In fact, to be anointed a moonshot, X had a “formula”: The project needed to demonstrate, first, that it was addressing a problem that affects hundreds of millions, or even billions, of people. Second, there had to be a breakthrough technology that gave us line of sight to a new way to solve the problem. Finally, there needed to be a radical business or product solution that probably sounded like it was just on the right side of crazy.

The AI Body Problem
It’s hard to imagine a person better suited to running X than Astro Teller, whose chosen title was literally Captain of Moonshots. You would never see Astro in the Google X building, a giant, three-story converted department store, without his signature rollerblades. Top that with a ponytail, always a friendly smile, and, of course, the name Astro, and you might think you’d entered an episode of HBO’s Silicon Valley.

When Astro and I first sat down to discuss what we might do with the robot companies that Google had acquired, we agreed something should be done. But what? Most useful robots to date were large, dumb, and dangerous, confined to factories and warehouses where they often needed to be heavily supervised or put in cages to protect people from them. How were we going to build robots that would be helpful and safe in everyday settings? It would require a new approach. The huge problem we were addressing was a massively global human shift—aging populations, shrinking workforces, labor shortages. Our breakthrough technology was—we knew, even in 2016—going to be artificial intelligence. The radical solution: fully autonomous robots that would help us with an ever-growing list of tasks in our everyday lives.

We were, in other words, going to give AI a body in the physical world, and if there was one place where something of this scale could be concocted, I was convinced it would be X. It was going to take a long time, a lot of patience, a willingness to try crazy ideas and fail at many of them. It would require significant technical breakthroughs in AI and robot technology and very likely cost billions of dollars. (Yes, billions.) There was a deep conviction on the team that, if you looked just a bit beyond the horizon, a convergence of AI and robotics was inevitable. We felt that much of what had only existed in science fiction to date was about to become reality.

It’s Your Mother...

....MUCH MORE

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"Singapore-Traded Grand Venture Technology Eyes Second Listing in Malaysia"

From Bloomberg, September 11:

  • Components maker GVT could list shares in KL in 2025: sources
  • Malaysia IPOs have raised far more than Singapore this year

Singapore-based Grand Venture Technology Ltd., which produces components for semiconductor makers and other industries, is targeting a second listing in Malaysia, according to people familiar with the matter.

GVT is working with advisers for a listing as soon as 2025 the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. It is considering a listing by introduction, meaning it wouldn’t be raising funds, one of the people said. Deliberations are ongoing, the people said.

Representatives for GVT and Bursa Malaysia declined to comment.

GVT’s shares are down about 7% in Singapore over the past 12 months and some 60% lower than a peak three years ago, giving the company a market value of S$188 million ($145 million). GVT is aiming for a higher valuation by listing in Kuala Lumpur, where IPOs have been on the rise this year, the people said.

The IPO would extend a reversal in a trend of Malaysia-based companies seeking listings in Singapore, which is viewed as more of a financial hub with access to global investors. UMS Holdings Ltd., another Singapore-listed maker of semiconductor components, said in July it was also considering a second listing in Malaysia to widen its investor base and boost the liquidity of its shares....

....MUCH MORE

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Germany: "DSV to create global logistics giant with $15.9 billion Schenker takeover"

That's a big bet.

From Reuters, September 13:

  •     DSV to become world's biggest logistics company with Schenker acquisition
  •     Deal financed through equity raising and debt financing
  •     DSV to cut up to 1,900 Schenker jobs in Germany

Denmark's DSV (DSV.CO), has agreed to buy Schenker, the logistics arm of German state rail operator Deutsche Bahn, for 14.3 billion euros ($15.85 billion) in a deal that would make it the world's biggest logistics company.

The acquisition will be the biggest by a Danish company and, according to DSV, propel it above DHL Logistics and Swiss group Kuehne und Nagel (KNIN.S), in both volume and revenue, but will still only give the group between 6% and 7% of a highly fragmented global logistics market.

DSV, which started as a small enterprise of 10 truckers in 1976, has grown through a string of acquisitions - sometimes taking over companies larger than itself.
"The size of this one is actually larger than all the transactions we've done before," CEO Jens Lund told journalists.

Deutsche Bahn put Schenker up for sale last year to concentrate on its core railway business in Germany and reduce its debt....

....MUCH MORE

Selling crown jewels to foreigners reminds me of when China was making forays into Germany's Mittelstand:

The Invisible Hand Touches Germany in No-no Place: China Grabs Putzmeister

Followed by: 

"Wary of China, Germany plans rapid state intervention to protect key industries"

The German concern for their small and medium sized enterprises goes back quite a ways. Here's an old-timey pic via Wikipedia:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/Mittelstand.jpg
Representation of the supporting
role of the Mittelstand in Walter Wilhelms
„Mission des Mittelstandes“ (Mission of the Mittelstand, 1925)

Without the Mittelstand you are without Germany's export engine and without exports (and with Mutti's recent comments on free speech, yikes!) you are left with a Teutonic Belarus.
But without the charm.

If interested see also: "China’s strategic investments in Europe: The case of maritime ports" 

Followed by: 

"China’s targeted corporate shopping spree to continue, especially in Europe"

Resulting in:

China Now Pressuring German Manufacturers In the EU Market

And:

China's COSCO Near Deal To Buy Into Port Of Hamburg

If interested see also:

We've been following this story for a while.

Now it appears we may have to brush up on Viking raids on Germany.

at

Monday, September 16, 2024

"Nvidia’s Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving." (NVDA)

From Barron's September 16:

Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle. 

Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week’s rally.  

Nvidia shares were down 0.6% at $118.45 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions. 

Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.

Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips

“Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,” wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. “They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.”

However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use....

....MORE

More and more talk about the progression from training to inference though. 

NVDA $115.63 down $3.47 (-2.91%), last.

Earlier on Oracle: "Elon Musk and Larry Ellison begged Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for AI GPUs at dinner"

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"US Commerce Secretary Wants Apple and Nvidia to Use Intel Foundry for AI Chips" (NVDA; AAPL; INTC)

One of these is not like the others.

Last week we saw - here via Tom's Hardware:

Intel cleared to get $3.5 billion to make advanced chips for Pentagon — Secure Enclave program ushers leading-edge CPUs to the military

And September 13 at ExtremeTech:

US Commerce Secretary Wants Apple and Nvidia to Use Intel Foundry for AI Chips

It looks like we have one of those "Whole of Government" operations going on here.

Meanwhile, back to Tom's Hardware:

Shut up and take my money.

 

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"Smokeless War: Europe is Getting 'Boursicoted' by Beijing"

From The National Interest, August 31:

Faced with this breadth and depth of Chinese influence operations, what should Europe do?

In 1964, Shi Pei Pu, a Beijing opera singer and spy, started a perplexing liaison with French diplomat Bernard Boursicot. Their trysts always took place in the dark, which Boursicot attributed to Chinese modesty. In fact, Shi was a man posing as a woman. He even presented a child, whom he claimed was their offspring. This ruse was designed to coax Boursicot to continue to pass French embassy documents to officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for twenty years. The record does not indicate if this was the first time a Western official should have been less naive about the People’s Republic of China (PRC), but the tradition continues....

....MUCH MORE

Well there's a story I hadn't heard before.

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Capital Markets: "Greenback Continues to Trade Heavily amid Heightened Speculation of a 50 bp Cut Wednesday"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The markets are continuing to be impacted by the possibility that Fed officials planted a press report to put 50 bp cut back on the table after the market had moved away from it after the recent jobs data and CPI. In the Fed funds futures, there is around an 80% of a half-point move on Wednesday discounted and about an 80% chance of a second 50 bp cut this year. This has taken a toll on the greenback and cut short the technical correction to last month's slide. The US dollar is off against most of the world's currencies and has been sold below JPY140 for the first time since July 2023, though Japan, China, and South Korean markets were closed for local holidays. It managed to resurface above JPY140 in late European morning activity. The Canadian dollar continues to lag in the move against the greenback amid speculation that the Bank of Canada may also move by 50 bp in one of its last two meetings of the year. Emerging market currencies are mostly higher, led by central European currencies.

Asia Pacific equity markets were mostly higher, and Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting a small gain, which if sustained would be the fourth consecutive advance. US index futures are narrowly mixed. European 10-year yields are mostly slightly higher today, while the 10-year Treasury yield is practically flat at 3.65%. The two-year yield is off nearly two basis points to3.56%. Gold likes the weaker dollar and lower rates and has set a record high near $2590. After settling near session lows before the weekend (~$67.75), November WTI is trading firmer though within Friday's range. It is near $68.20. It rose 1.15% last week to snap a four-week, 10.5% drop....

....MUCH MORE

He goes on to note that larges swaths of Asia are closed: 

....Asia Pacific
Japan's markets were on holiday today, for Respect-for-the-Elderly. They will be closed next Monday for the autumn equinox. Chinese markets are closed today and will remain shut tomorrow for the mid-autumn festival. Remember Chinese markets are closed October 1-7, celebrating the national foundation, known as "Golden Week." South Korean markets also closed, and for the next two day for the Harvest Moon holiday....

And in the Americas section:

....many suspect that the Chair itself planted a press story last week to put a 50 bp cut back on the table. The derivatives market now has about an 80% chance of a 50 bp cut discounted. And more. The derivatives market is discounting 120 bp of easing over the three remaining meetings of the year. That is tantamount to at least one 50 bp cut and about an 80% chance of a second half-point move....

When we say "MUCH MORE" we mean "MUCH MORE."

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Sunday, September 15, 2024

Capturing (And Capitalizing On) Waterborne Methane

From AgFunderNews, June 25:

Bluemethane unveils novel tech to capture methane from water

When it comes to methane emissions, most people think of oil, coal, gas and livestock, says Louise Parlons Bentata, co-founder and CEO at UK-based startup Bluemethane. What they often don’t know about, she says, is water.

“Methane emissions from water are an environmental catastrophe but also a waste of valuable resources that can be turned into clean energy. Human sources of methane emissions from water such as rice cultivation, waste streams and reservoirs emit more than three billion tons of CO2e per year from methane emissions, but awareness is really low.”

Founded in 2021 by Parlons Bentata and engineer Nestor Rueda-Vallejo, Bluemethane is part of the fifth cohort of the AgFunder GROW Impact Accelerator [Disclosure: AgFunder is AgFunderNews’ parent company] and is on a mission to remove methane from a variety of water sources, starting with wastewater treatment in the UK, where utility companies have committed to achieve net-zero status by 2030.

AgFunderNews (AFN) caught up with Parlons Bentata (LPB) to discuss how methane is released from water sources, how to monetize methane reduction, and the challenges around raising capital to address a market opportunity that is not yet well understood.

AFN: Give us the origins story of Bluemethane…

LPB: I began my career at L’Oreal [as a brand manager], did an MBA, and then worked at Johnson & Johnson [as a global marketing manager]. I then ran my own strategy company for about 10 years until I started working with an engineering company [a client] that was making very highly valuable things that were ending up in landfill.

I said, ‘Can we do a project [to tackle this problem]?’ And he said ‘No, you’re not qualified.’ I said, ‘Well what do you need to be qualified?’ He said ‘I don’t know, but I can tell you that you’re not qualified to do it.’ So he brought in this lady to take on the project, and I said to her, ‘What makes you qualified?’ And she said, ‘I’ve just got back from Cambridge [University], where I’ve done a postgrad [course] in sustainable business leadership. So I said, ‘All right, I’ll sign up for that then.’

So just as COVID began [in 2020], I signed up for this nine-month course in the evenings while still managing my work [the day job] and three children, and then in 2021, I signed up for a climate technology fellowship program called On Deck, not knowing what I really wanted, but knowing I wanted to do something new.

On the first day [in March 2021], I met my cofounder Nestor, an engineer who was looking at how hydropower reservoirs emitted billion tons of greenhouse gases. By May/June, we gave up the things that paid our mortgages, having never met in person. We met for the first time in September 2021 and joined [the] Carbon13 [climate accelerator].

AFN: Why is there methane in water and when can it cause a problem?  

LPB: Methane is produced through the decomposition of organic matter [by microbes] in water in low oxygen conditions. So think of a sewer, which is an almost entirely anoxic [oxygen-free] environment. Rice cultivation also releases methane because farmers often keep rice paddies flooded, which creates anaerobic conditions that allow microbes to feed on organic matter and produce methane.

There are quite a lot of academic papers on this, but nothing compared to all the stuff written on capturing CO2; but it’s a really big problem. At least 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent are coming from just the anthropogenic water bodies like reservoirs or rice paddies, and sewage and things like that.

AFN: Why doesn’t the ocean release a bunch of methane gas?

LPB: It’s actually far less of an issue than other water sources because the water is moving [methane released in the deep ocean can be diluted and dispersed by ocean currents over vast areas, making it less likely to reach saturation and escape into the atmosphere], and more oxygen is being circulated [inhibiting the activity of anaerobic microbes that produce methane].

AFN: What determines whether the methane stays in the water or is released into the atmosphere?

LPB: It is released in three different ways. The first is bubbling. You’ll see this in shallow water where methane forms bubbles that rise and burst at the surface as the pressure from overlying water is not sufficient to keep the methane dissolved. In a reservoir with a lot of methane, for example, you’ll see bubbles near the edge, but not in the deep parts.

Then second there’s diffusion, where the molecules transfer at the surface to become gas when the concentration of methane in the water is higher than in the air.

And then there’s degassing where there’s a sudden change of pressure that causes dissolved gases to be released rapidly, so imagine a large volume of water passing through a dam wall. Suddenly there’s no weight in the water above it, it goes through and you see loads of bubbles....

....MUCH MORE

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"Shanghai slammed by Typhoon Bebinca, strongest storm to hit in seven decades"

Let's hope they taped the window's before heading out for the holiday.*

From CNN via MSN, Sept. 15:

Shanghai was brought to a standstill on Monday morning by what authorities say was the strongest typhoon to directly hit the Chinese financial hub in more than seven decades, with flights, trains and highways suspended during a national holiday.

Typhoon Bebinca made landfall in an industrial suburb southeast of the metropolis of 25 million people around 7:30 a.m. local time. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said it packed top wind speeds of 130 kilometers per hour (80 mph), the equivalent of a Category 1 Atlantic hurricane....

....MORE

As noted in this 2020 post (HK is further south, closer to the equator, tropical, a degree or so south of the Tropic of Cancer):

Shipping: "Typhoon could hit Port of Hong Kong this weekend"

Buy tape. The first rule of preparing for typhoons in Hong Kong is tape the glass.
We are talking a lot of tape.*
And because the headline story is from FreightWaves we're talking shipping:

Hong Kong may have to brace for a typhoon slamming its large container port this weekend.
A cluster of thunderstorms over the Philippines has the potential to become a typhoon during the next couple of days. This would be the second named storm of the 2020 Pacific typhoon season. The first was Typhoon Vongfong, known as Typhoon Ambo in the Philippines, which hit that island nation in May. The season runs throughout the year, but most Pacific typhoons develop from May through October.

This storm, which would be named Typhoon Nuri, will likely track over the northern Philippines on Friday, June 12, moving into southeastern China over the weekend. The projected track takes the storm close to Hong Kong on Sunday, June 14.

The potential typhoon could delay various services, from container cargo to cruises and public transportation.

Hong Kong is one of the busiest container ports in the world....
....MUCH MORE
 *Hong Kong has more skyscrapers than any other city in the world. 
That's a lot of glass:


http://www.globalphotos.org/hongkong/20051018/IMG_2463.jpg 

And in 2018's "Supertyphoon Mangkhut Downgraded To Severe Typhoon": 

....And here's the South China Morning Post's front page.
They're reporting that Hong Kong Has run out of tape for the windows....

And Andy Yeung via DesignBoom:

https://www.designboom.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/andy-yeung-drone-photography-hong-kong-designboom-04.jpg

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"Forget Artificial Intelligence, Here's Artificial Empathy"

A repost from October 2013:

Thanks to whoever sent this in, if you wish a hat tip drop us a line and we'll do the right thing.
From Kernal Magazine:

AI is over: this is artificial empathy

Worried about the NSA spying on you? That’s nothing compared to the intricate analysis of your voice patterns that happens every time you call the gas company.
Are you the kind of person who prefers to be chatty on customer service calls, or do you like to get right to the point? Do you prefer to be lead through an explanation every step of the way, or do you prefer the person on the other end to just shut up and “do what they need to do”? Do you prefer person-centered explanations, or technical explanations? Are you outgoing, or are you shy?

Believe it or not, there is a computer system out there that can figure out the details of your personality and interaction style after listening to mere seconds of your phone calls. In fact, this may have already happened the last time you called a customer service line. There is no way you would ever know.

Mattersight is an extremely sophisticated data analysis system that listens to the way you respond on the telephone. It listens to you in the background, and breaks down hundreds of micro-features of your voice: volume, tone, pauses, speed of response, and so on. It uses extremely sophisticated mathematical algorithms to interpret these features, compare them to data in their databases, and come up with a personality profile for you.

All of this happens, by the way, during the first few seconds that you are on the phone. It could even be happening while you are working your way through a voice-activated menu system.

Then, when you are finally connected to a sales representative or customer service professional, Mattersight takes its analysis of your personality, compares it to the personality profiles of the call center employees that it has on file, and automatically connects you with the service agent that you are most compatible with....MORE
Mattersight trades NASDAQ, symbol MATR, $4.12 and a $72 million cap.
Here are the second quarter financials, they are going to have to raise some money or get profitable, fast.
Not our kind of deal.

note: the "MORE" link has rotted, here's the Internet Archive - http://web.archive.org/web/20131029194256/http://www.kernelmag.com/features/report/5910/ai-is-so-over-this-is-artificial-empathy/# 

note: MATR was purchased for $2.70 per share in 2018. 

As the retail guys say: "But Mr. Bigg, if you annualize that..."

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"World’s largest flywheel energy storage system with 30 MW output connected to grid"

You really, really want the machining on things like this to be as close to perfect as possible, lest it wobble itself right out the door.

From Interesting Engineering, September 15:

With a power output of 30 megawatts, China’s Dinglun flywheel energy storage facility is now the biggest power station of its kind.

The US has some impressive flywheel energy storage plants. The largest of these is the 20 MW Beacon Power flywheel station located in Stephentown, New York. Until recently, it was the world’s largest flywheel energy storage system (FESS), but not anymore.

China has developed a massive 30-megawatt (MW) FESS in Shanxi province called the Dinglun flywheel energy storage power station. 

This station is now connected to the grid, making it the largest operational flywheel energy storage facility ever built....

....MUCH MORE, quite a project.

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"Iran plans to deport 2 million Afghan refugees"

From Deutsche-Welle, September 14:

After years of economic crisis, Iranians' frustration is increasingly directed at Afghan migrants. Under pressure to act, the government has now announced plans to deport 2 million Afghan refugees in the coming months.

Iranian police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan said in the next six months, some 2 million undocumented foreigners would be deported from Iran.

Speaking to the Iranian news agency Young Journalists Club in an interview on Tuesday, Radan also said security forces and the Interior Ministry were working out measures that would deport "a considerable number of illegal foreigners" over the long term.

When Iranian officials speak of "illegal foreigners," they usually mean migrants from Afghanistan. Iran and Afghanistan share a 900-kilometer (560-mile) long border, parts of which run through inaccessible, high mountain ranges. For over 40 years, Afghans have fled to Iran to escape civil war, poverty, and, now, the Taliban.

"Afghans are cultivated people, but our country cannot receive so many migrants," Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni said in an interview with Iran's state news agency on Monday.

He also highlighted the difficulties people in Afghanistan face and pointed out cultural similarities with Iranians.

"We plan to handle these matters in an orderly fashion and without much fuss," he said. "Our priority lies with irregular migrants."

In May, the Interior Ministry announced that some 1.3 million irregular migrants had been deported to Afghanistan in the past 12 months.

UNHCR: Over 4 million Afghans in Iran
The United Nations refugee agency UNHCR estimates that nearly 4.5 million Afghan nationals currently live in Iran. According to Iranian news agencies, however, the real number could be as high as 6 million or 8 million.

Many do not have a legal permit, avoiding registration out of fear of being deported. Many also intend to pass through Iran while trying  to reach Europe....

....MUCH MORE

Mayfair, Monte Carlo highly recommended.

Of course there are exceptions, but in general the following are true for me:

5 stars - I thoroughly enjoyed it and will go out of my way to eat here regularly.
4 stars - I would go out of my way to eat here again.
3 stars - I would go again if I'm in the neighborhood, but I won't go out of my way for it.
2 stars - I would only eat here again if someone else really wanted to and was paying for it.
1 star - I would not eat here again, even if it's free.

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Meanwhile, In The Arctic: "Svalbard-research becomes more important for China, professor says"

From The Barents Observer, September 10:

China’s Polar Research Institute agrees to prepare joint Arctic scientific projects with Russian partners. This became clear during a recent visit to Barentsburg on Svalbard. 

The Chinese delegation came to the Russian settlement on Svalbard in late August. Here, Arktikugol director Ildar Neverov presented Russia’s plans to establish a scientific centre in Pyramiden. Moscow hopes to attract researchers from BRICS+ countries to team up for science and education at a new centre that yet has to be built.

Professor Marc Lanteigne with UiT - Arctic University of Norway in Tromsø is expert on China’s Arctic interests. He believes Svalbard will become even more important for Bejing under the current geopolitical global power tensions.

“With Chinese research interests being curtailed elsewhere, including in Canada and Greenland, Svalbard is growing in importance for Chinese polar researchers,” Lanteigne says to the Barents Observer.

The professor is one few academics based in northern Norway that speaks mandarin. In Ny-Ålesund on Svalbard, where China for 20 years has operated its Arctic Yellow River Station, Marc Lanteigne easily finds topics of shared interest to discuss.

The station is crewed with scientists from the Shanghai-based Polar Research Institute of China (PRIC).

Lanteigne says China has a growing concern that Norway is seeking to expand its oversight of research activities on Svalbard.

“Beijing is especially critical of Norwegian protocols which call for research on the archipelago to be restricted to natural science,” Lanteigne explains....

....MUCH MORE, the writers go deep on what could very well turn out to be a geopolitical flashpoint. 

We've mentioned China's proclivity for establishing bases on international maritime chokepoints: the billion dollar bridge over the Panama Canal, the giant battery factories in Morocco - the eastern approaches to the Strait of Gibralter.

Also February 2024's "Red Sea Rivalries": 

The most amazing thing that has been pointed out over the last couple months is that China's base on Djibouti's Gulf of Aden coast, at the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into the Red Sea, gives them the perfect location to monitor Houthi action and American reaction:

China Officially Sets Up Its First Overseas Base in Djibouti

—China Officially Sets Up Its First Overseas Base in Djibouti, The Diplomat



Also the Suez Canal itself: ""China & Egypt Strengthen Belt And Road Collaborations Including The Suez Canal International Logistics Zone"
I'm beginning to see a pattern here.*

And April 2024 Why the U.S. and China Suddenly Care About a Port in Southern Chile": 

 

And all of a sudden (after years of development) China is hanging out at the entrance to some very strategic sea lanes. In fact, the only major chokepoint not seeing a Chinese development that comes to mind is the Strait of Malacca between Singapore/Malay Peninsula and Indonesia's Sumatra.

The Bering Strait between the Russian far east and Alaska and South Africa are on a gentle simmer and back to Svalbard, one look at the map shows the attraction. Also from the Barents Observer, this time in 2021:

Geopolitics: "Moscow aims to enhance presence in Svalbard as part of hybrid-strategy, expert warns"

....Military speaking, Svalbard is of great strategical importance, located between the Barents-, Greenland-, and Norwegian Seas. The one controlling Svalbard is also likely to control the important gateway from the shallow Barents Sea to the deeper North Atlantic.

For Russia’s Northern Fleet, the so-called Bear Island Gap between mainland Norway and the archipelago’s southernmost island is key to conducting sea denial operations in and over the maritime areas further south, potentially threatening NATO’s transatlantic sea lines of communication.


Russian Bastion Defence in relation to Norway and the Bear and GIUK Gaps. 
Source: Mikkola / RAND Europe report 
 
Regarding China in the Great White North:
"China’s Emerging Strategies in the Arctic"
"China’s Polar Strategy: An Emerging Gray Zone?"
"Pentagon warns of risk of Chinese submarines in the Arctic"
"Don't Fear China's Arctic Takeover"
"How To Avoid A Naval Cold War In The High North"
Natural Gas: "Chinese oilmen make big discovery in Russian Arctic waters"
"China opens bids for first nuclear-powered icebreaker"
China seeks a more active role in the Arctic
China defines itself as a near-Arctic state and says it will actively participate with wisdom and strength to future protection and development. Roger that, wisdom and strength, over.
Flashback, June 2018:
...On the other hand, if you read Xinhua's translation of January's "Full text: China's Arctic Policy" you'll note they call themselves a ‘Near-Arctic state’.
This is to counter people like me using the 'non-polar' or 'non-Arctic' phrasing.
Additionally China is couching their interest in terms of research:
States from outside the Arctic region do not have territorial sovereignty in the Arctic, but they do have rights in respect of scientific research, navigation, overflight, fishing, laying of submarine cables and pipelines in the high seas and other relevant sea areas in the Arctic Ocean, and rights to resource exploration and exploitation in the Area, pursuant to treaties such as UNCLOS and general international law. In addition, Contracting Parties to the Spitsbergen Treaty enjoy the liberty of access and entry to certain areas of the Arctic, the right under conditions of equality and, in accordance with law, to the exercise and practice of scientific research, production and commercial activities such as hunting, fishing, and mining in these areas....

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Saturday, September 14, 2024

"Germans are bad at investing"

From Klement on Investing, July 17:

I mean really bad. So bad indeed that one has to wonder what is going on there. And I know what that says about me as a German working in the investment industry. But let me explain…

There is a bit of a conundrum when it comes to Germans and their living standards. On the one hand, Germans are famously productive and inventive, creating a lot of income from their economic activities. Also, Germans are famously frugal with a rather high savings rate (particularly when compared to Americans or Brits).

But when one looks at living standards, the Germans typically lag the Americans and are not that much ahead of the Brits, French or other nations. In theory, if you have higher income and higher savings you can invest these savings and let the money work for you so that you end up with even more savings and higher income and thus higher living standards. Unless you do not make your money work for you…

I know I am mixing things here that aren’t the same but stay with me for a minute and look at the chart below which is taken from an analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. It shows the cumulative return on German domestic and foreign investments as well as the foreign investments of the UK and the US.

Cumulative return of German, UK and US foreign investments


Source: Hünnekes et al. (2023)

The chart above shows that German foreign investments are not only worse than their domestic investments but miles behind the UK and the US. Now, be aware that this is the cumulative return of all kinds of foreign investments, which includes foreign direct investments, foreign portfolio investments in stocks and bonds, central bank reserves invested abroad and other investments such as trade credit.

But, and this is where things become relevant to most readers, one can show the same by just looking at equity funds located in different countries that invest abroad. Here is the average performance of international equity funds from 2000 to 2021 by location of the fund. German fund managers have among the lowest average returns and much lower average returns than their peers in the UK or the US....

....MUCH MORE

A possibly related post from 2009:

German pensioners ‘kidnap and torture their investment adviser’

A group of well-to-do pensioners who lost their savings in the credit crunch staged an arthritic revenge attack and held their terrified financial adviser to ransom, prosecutors said yesterday.

The alleged kidnapping is the latest example of what is being dubbed “silver crime” — the violent backlash of pensioners who feel cheated by the world.

“As I was letting myself into my front door I was assaulted from behind and hit hard,” the financial adviser James Amburn, a 56-year-old German-American, said. “Then they bound me with masking tape until I looked like a mummy. I thought I was a dead man.”

He was freed by 40 heavily armed policemen from the counter-terrorist unit last Saturday. The frightened consultant was in his underwear, his body lacerated by wounds allegedly inflicted by angry pensioners.

It appears that two couples had entrusted Mr Amburn’s investment company with €2.4 million (£2 million), which he ploughed into Florida’s boom-and-bust property market. The properties became forfeit during the sub-prime mortgage crisis but the couples wanted their money back.

After being bundled into the boot of an Audi in the west German town of Speyer, Mr Amburn was driven southwards to Chieming, close to the Austrian border, where one of the couples Roland K, and his wife, Sieglinde, 79, had a holiday home.

The financial adviser claims he was held there in a cellar for four days almost naked, fed soup twice a day and beaten. Another couple, Gerhard F, 63, and his wife, Iris, 66, both retired doctors, allegedly helped to torture the prisoner....

Maybe it's not Germans but rather their advisers.

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