Monday, April 15, 2013

Largest (English language) Paper in Largest Gold Market: Time to Sell Gold Not Buy

 After falling below $1400 the front futures are now down $91.60 at $1409.50.

The Times of India isn't just the largest English language newspaper (circulation) in India, it is the largest circulation English language paper in the world. Whether that is akin to being the tallest pygmy I'll leave to the pros.

India is the largest gold market* in the world. It is also the largest** precious metals jewelry market in the world.

From the Economic Times:
Gold to be a lousy investment in the next decade
 The Indian price of gold has risen six folds in the last decade, fueling a record speculative import spree. Soaring gold imports have hit $42 billion in the first ten months of 2012-13 , pushing the current account deficit to near-disaster levels. The finance minister is wringing his hands in distress, while housewives say that buying gold was the best thing they ever did.

Sorry, but the party is over. The notion that gold is the finest investment, whose value can only go up, is dead wrong. History shows that gold fluctuates crazily, so it can look a fabulous investment for some time and then become a total disaster. There's nothing safe about it.

The Indian price reached a peak of Rs 33,000 per 10gm in late 2011. It has since fallen steadily to just Rs 29,000. Global trends suggest we have entered an era of falling or stagnant gold prices. Housewives and all other buyers beware: gold will probably be a lousy investment in the next decade....MORE
*Here's the World Gold Council's "Gold Demand Trends", Q4 and full year 2012.

**In 2007 I mentioned:
...As a side note, in December 1979, as silver was making its historic run, an old Jewish trader told me he was lightening up on Ag.

When I asked why he said "I hear the Indian ladies are taking their bracelets off and they've been trading it longer than I have".