Thursday, September 12, 2019

Natural Gas: Storage Report Comes In Slightly More Bullish Than Expectations

Front futures at 2.5725, up 0.0335 (+1.3200%)
First up, expectations via FX Empire:
....Bloomberg analysts are estimating a median build of 81 Bcf with a range of 75 Bcf to 91 Bcf. Reuters analysts are looking or an 82 Bcf injection, with a range of 76 Bcf to 94 Bcf. Intercontinental Exchange EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled Tuesday at 83 Bcf. Natural Gas Intelligence’s model predicted an 86 Bcf injection. Energy Aspects issued a preliminary estimate of 86 Bcf for this week’s report.....MORE
And from the U.S. Energy Information Administration:
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

for week ending September 6, 2019   |   Released: September 12, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |   Next Release: September 19, 2019
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
Year ago
(09/06/18)
5-year average
(2014-18)
Region 09/06/19 08/30/19 net change implied flow Bcf % change Bcf % change
East 739 714 25 25 676 9.3 756 -2.2
Midwest 864 827 37 37 729 18.5 848 1.9
Mountain 183 177 6 6 165 10.9 191 -4.2
Pacific 275 276 -1 -1 249 10.4 303 -9.2
South Central 958 947 11 11 805 19.0 997 -3.9
   Salt 199 197 2 2 182 9.3 251 -20.7
   Nonsalt 759 749 10 10 623 21.8 746 1.7
Total 3,019 2,941 78 78 2,626 15.0 3,096 -2.5

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.
Summary Working gas in storage was 3,019 Bcf as of Friday, September 6, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 393 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 77 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,096 Bcf. At 3,019 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.....MORE
We'll be back with more after the Weekly Update is released. In the meantime, today's Today in Energy happens to be on natural gas and highlights one of the reasons to be cautious. There is a lot of gas around.
Even just one-or-two tanker loads of LNG that get delayed or postponed could shake up the storage numbers:

September 12, 2019
U.S. natural gas production reaches a new record despite low prices
Daily U.S. natural gas production estimates and forecasted monthly averages
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook; IHS Markit

U.S. natural gas production continued to increase in August, setting a new daily production record of 92.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) on August 19, 2019, according to estimates from IHS Markit. Natural gas production also set a new monthly record in August, averaging more than 91 Bcf/d for the first time. In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on September 10, 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts dry natural gas production to average 93.4 Bcf/d from September through the end of the year. U.S. natural gas production increased by 7.1 Bcf/d (8%) between August 2018 and August 2019, led by production gains primarily in the Northeast....
...MORE