Wednesday, June 12, 2019

UPDATED—Insurance: Ebola Crosses Border to Uganda, Should Trigger Cat Bond Payout

Updates below.
Original post:
We've been following the World Bank's Pandemic Emergency Facility for the last couple years and have pointed out the $320 million July 2017 Cat bond issue has two triggers: 1) a minimum 250 victims and 2) the crossing of an international border.

The current epidemic in DR Congo passed the victim threshold when the World Health Organisation reported 296 deaths in December 2018 (current counts over 2000 cases, over 1300 deaths.
And now we see via United Press International:

Uganda confirms first Ebola case as neighboring DRC fights outbreak
June 11 (UPI) -- A child in Uganda has tested positive for Ebola, the first confirmed case of the disease in the country since the ongoing outbreak in neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo began in August, the World Health Organization said.

The 5-year-old Congolese child entered the country with his family through the Bwera Border post Sunday seeking medical care at Kagando Hospital, near the western border with DMC, when staff identified that the child may be sick with Ebola, WHO said in a release.

Confirmation of the disease was made Tuesday by the Uganda Virus Institute and the child was admitted to the Bwera Ebola Treatment Unit where he is receiving treatment while contacts are being monitored, WHO said.

The Uganda Ministry of Health said the child is being kept in isolation.

In response to the confirmed case, the Uganda Ministry of Health and WHO have dispatched a Rapid Response Team to Kasese to identify others who may be infected with the disease.

The announcement comes as WHO with the DRC have been battling to contain the second-greatest Ebola outbreak in history that, as of June 4, has resulted in 1,346 deaths in the African country and surpassed 2,000 confirmed cases since the outbreak began last August. The number of confirmed cases has been growing each week with them exploding in March, according to WHO....MUCH MORE
The World bank has been making smaller amounts available to to the DRC ($20 million) via its cash window, with another $60 million committed but this is the first time the cat bond—actually a note, it matures in July 2020 has seriously come into play.
Goodness know the affected countries can use the money and hey, the bond investors caught two years of far-above-the-risk-free-rate.

More to come, the media hasn't yet gotten around to the finance part of this.

Previously:
February 2019 
DR Congo Ebola Cases Pass 800; Deaths Over 500; No Cat Bond Trigger Yet
December 2018
Catastrophe Bonds: "Ebola deaths pass pandemic cat bond trigger, but no payout till it spreads"
November 2018 
Congo's Ebola Crisis May Trigger World Bank's Catastrophe Bond
October 2018 
"The Unforgiving Math That Stops Epidemics"

If interested see also September 2017's "There We Go—8.1 Magnitude Earthquake and Tsunami Off Mexico (and a new superbug emerges in China)" for our links on the issuance of the cat bond.

Oh, and keep an eye peeled for Lassa fever out of Nigeria too.

UPDATE 1:

Latest numbers as of 10 June 2019

Total cases: 2071
- Confirmed cases: 1977
- Probable cases: 94
Deaths: 1396
- Confirmed: 1302
- Probable: 94
—WHO 

UPDATE 2: 
Update on Ebola and the World Bank's Catastrophe Bonds