Thursday, May 16, 2019

Trade and War: Terry Gou, Taiwan’s billionaire and political wildcard

With Mr. Gou's Foxconn being at the center of Apple's manufacturing/assembly ecosystem in China AND running for President in Taiwan the permutations of the possibilities go exponential pretty quickly.
From Le Monde Diplomatique:
A surprise announcement last month catapulted Taiwan’s richest man Terry Gou into the spotlight. Declaring his intentions to run for the upcoming 2020 presidential elections as a Kuomintang (KMT) candidate in Taiwan, Gou’s entry into the political scene was attacked by the Democratic Progressive Party and media alike.

As the leader of Foxconn, a global tech behemoth, Gou has deep connections and networks across both China and the US. Earlier this month he met President Donald Trump at the White House en route to Wisconsin, where Foxconn plans to open up a multi-billion-dollar plant. This is the first time a sitting US president has met with a Taiwanese presidential hopeful in the Oval Office since cutting diplomatic ties in 1979. At the same time, Gou has vast investments on the mainland which observers argue could leave him vulnerable to Chinese demands; they believe that Gou’s loyalties are blurred between his company and the country’s democracy, leading many to conclude that he would sell out the island when pressured.
This is the first time a sitting US president has met with a Taiwanese presidential hopeful in the Oval Office since cutting diplomatic ties in 1979
Gou’s biggest challenge is to convince the Taiwanese people that his business interests will not come at the expense of the island’s sovereignty, according to Zhang Zhixing, a senior East Asia analyst for the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor.

In an unexpected turn, the billionaire has used strong rhetoric on his stance on the Taiwan-Beijing relationship (see ‘China tries to charm Taiwan’, May 2019). ‘There will be no Xi-Gou meeting,’ Gou told reporters in a press conference held on his return to Taipei, adding that he would not agree to meet the Chinese president Xi Jinping until he receives Beijing’s acknowledgement to the existence of the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal title). Gou added in a press conference that he would shut down and move his production sites and factories in China if Beijing threatens his company in the event of his presidency: ‘I will tell them to just give me a couple of months and I will move my production sites to more competitive places in the world.’ Gou also laid out plans to remove himself from Foxconn’s board, telling shareholders at the annual shareholders’ meeting in April that he was 100% sure that he would no longer be managing the affairs of Foxconn.

Despite that, the billionaire is leveraging his economic and business acumen to supplement Taiwan’s ailing economy. He has repeatedly stated that he intends to bring peace and prosperity back to Taiwan, promising to strengthen the island’s economy. ‘The economic aspect is one of the key and really physical issue for many Taiwanese,’ Zhang said; ‘most of the KMT candidates are banking on the DPP’s weak economic management to rally support, and public opinions have shown them to be successful.’ Recent opinion polls in Taiwan show that public support for the bid by its current president, Tsai Ing-wen, for a second term in 2020 is hovering at around 20%, with her major opponents in the lead by at least double-digit figures.

Gou’s recent campaign developments would have caught the Chinese government’s attentions, although Beijing has so far remained relatively quiet. ‘Beijing would certainty take note of his stance and they will carefully calculate his campaign promises,’ Zhang said. Regardless of who comes into power at the 2020 elections, Beijing will continue to press hard over cross-strait relations. And Gou has succeeded in his latest rhetoric in distancing himself from Beijing, thus appealing to middle and green voters who view his economic management as an asset.

While concerns about the economy will no doubt be a major factor in the elections, cross-strait relations remain a flashpoint for any candidate to take on. Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen chose a hardline approach compared to her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou — bucking the trend by refusing to acknowledge the 1992 consensus and rejecting China’s ‘One Country, Two Systems’ offer....MUCH MORE