Friday, August 4, 2017

Economists React to the July Employment Report: ‘A Banner Jobs Report’

From the WSJ's Real Time Economics:
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 209,000 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the Labor Department said Friday. Here are early reactions from economists and analysts to Friday’s report:

“The great deceleration in hiring that began at the beginning of 2015 and ran through 2016 is now done with, with monthly private sector job gains settling in at an average of 180,000. Looking through the numbers we see much of the resurgence is in low wage jobs. Some 45% of the July increase was in health care and restaurants. And with that, aggregate wage growth slows.” -Steven Blitz, TS Lombard

“Despite an above-average monthly gain, we hold that wage growth, like the employment cost index, is likely to remain modest relative to previous expansions, reflecting, in part, stagnant worker-turnover.” -Mark Doms, Nomura

“This was a banner jobs report. With the strong payroll number in July, job growth in the past three months is ahead of the 2016 pace and way ahead of what’s needed to keep up with population growth. Working-age adults are now more likely to be employed than at any time since the recession.” -Jed Kolko, Indeed
“The broader U-6 unemployment rate remained at 8.6%, somewhat above its 2007 low, suggesting there is still some spare capacity left in the labour market.” -Michael Pearce, Capital Economics