Friday, June 6, 2014

Natural Gas Weekly Supply/Demand Report

We didn't post on yesterday's storage injection report, the ECB and market reaction thereto required more focus than usual. Sorry.

Nationally, cooling degree days are running a bit above normal whil the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are almost exactly normal. Table below.

From the Energy Information Administration:
...July futures contract price increases. The July 2014 natural gas futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) began the report week last Wednesday at $4.615/MMBtu. With expectations of warmer temperatures on Thursday, the July contract decreased by 5.6 cents/MMBtu, taking over as the front-month contract. The July contract decreased slightly on Friday, but then increased on Monday, Tuesday, and yesterday, when it closed at $4.640/MMBtu. The 12-month strip (the average of the 12 contracts between July 2014 and June 2015) was essentially flat over the report week, closing at $4.530/MMBtu yesterday.

Production and supply decrease slightly. Overall supply decreased by 0.2 Bcf/d, or 0.3%, from the previous week, to 72.8 Bcf/d. Dry natural gas production also decreased by 0.2 Bcf/d, to 67.8 Bcf/d, 0.4% less than the prior report week's record dry production average of 68.0 Bcf/d. Pipeline imports from Canada and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sendout remained flat.

Consumption continues to decrease. Total U.S. natural gas consumption declined for the fifth week in a row, by 0.4 Bcf/d, or 0.7%, to 56.7 Bcf/d, despite increasing power burn. This was the second consecutive report week, and fourth out of the last five, in which power burn increased, but total consumption decreased. Particularly large power burn increases in Texas and the Southwest exceeded declines in the Southeast. However, this only partially offset a decrease in demand from the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors....MUCH MORE

Temperature -- Heating & Cooling Degree Days (week ending May 29)
 
HDD deviation from:
 
CDD deviation from:
Region
HDD Current
normal
last year
CDD Current
normal
last year
New England
50
10
-6
2
-1
2
Middle Atlantic
24
-6
-27
11
1
3
E N Central
17
-19
-43
21
3
12
W N Central
5
-26
-31
39
16
21
South Atlantic
4
-7
-16
68
17
21
E S Central
0
-10
-11
61
18
19
W S Central
0
-1
-1
70
-1
-16
Mountain
21
-23
-5
38
8
8
Pacific
8
-21
-25
18
7
17
United States
13
-14
-24
37
7
10
Note: HDD = heating degree-day; CDD = cooling degree-day