Peak Mazola?

The WSJ EnergyRoundup has some interesting thoughts and lots of links on today's corn report.
Limit down. Equities yawn? Something to think about over the weekend.

End of oil heralds climate pain

From the Beeb:

"Many people think that running out of oil, or "peak oil", would be good for the climate. In his new book The Last Oil Shock, David Strahan begs to differ; he suggests it may bring catastrophe. "

HT: Junkscience

Fair weather brings strong profit for Lloyds of London

From the International Herald Tribune:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/29/business/EU-FIN-EARNS-Britain-Lloyds.php

HT: Junkscience

Mitsubishi Heavy To Borrow Money Using CO2 Credits

This seems like an important milestone toward treating emission credits as bankable property rights. Two questions, why didn't this deal get more play in the press and why is Mitsubishi borrowing money? (Because they can. I know, old joke. Seriously, what is the effective cost of capital here?).

From EnergyDaily: http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Mitsubishi_Heavy_To_Borrow_Money_Using_CO2_Credits_999.html

Pickens Tells CNBC: Fundamentals Pushing Up Oil, Not Politics

The video is here.

ADM

In answer to an email "why would ADM benefit from subsidies for cellulosic ethanol?"

"Where there are subsidies, there I will be" or something to that effect.

NYTimes Leonhardt on climate change policy

This by way of Environmental Economics again, from yesterday.
Scroll down to the comments for some simple (and not so simple) exposition.

Pig poop: subsidies vs taxes

Environmental Economics has a post touching on the taxes vs. cap'n trade vs. subsidies subject of the last few posts.

It's been pointed out to me that ADM's stock seems to be waking up. Watch for a retracement of yesterdays gap open and it may be setting up one of Mr. O'Neills saucer & handle formations.

Which may portend passage of the $6 Bil. in subsidies for cellulosic ethanol currently being proposed. Stocks are smarter than commentators.

Carbon sequestration: "This is an interesting untested technology"

Michael Dorsey is assistant professor at the Dartmouth College in the Environmental Studies program.

Scitizen has been running some interviews comparing cap and trade vs. taxation vs. subsidies for new technology.

From last December

What (do you think) is Humanity's Greatest Challenge?

Determine what the next X-prize will be offered for:

http://www.comspacewatch.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=22157

From: Commercial Space Watch

Summary of Testimony of Jeffrey R. Holzschuh

Vice-Chairman, Institutional Securities Morgan Stanley.

Some insight on China. Six page PDF

From yesterday's testimony: "China's emissions cap-trading efforts would be made more effective if America creates its own carbon cap-trading system to foster U.S. carbon emissions reductions."

These guys are major players in cap and trade. When I get around to publishing the Rent-Seekers stock index they and GS (maybe LEH too) will be the core of the Financials component.

Other witnesses at Climateer Economics

USDA Funds Available!

Inviting Applications for Renewable Energy Systems and Energy EfficiencyImprovements Grants and GuaranteedLoans

HT: Renewable Energy Access

Ethanol, Rent-seeking,ADM and God

In 1995 The Cato Institute put their imprimatur on a paper that said each dollar of Archer Daniels Midland's ethanol profit cost the American taxpayer $30. This wasn't quite fair, as it ascribed all government subsidy costs to ADM's lobbying efforts.

Dwayne Andreas was a prodigious lobbyist. This from SourceWatch: "A Watergate-era investigation led to criminal charges that he had illegally contributed $100,000 to Humphrey's 1968 campaign for President, but Andreas was acquitted. And his $25,000 cash donation to President Richard M. Nixon's re-election bid in 1972 became a focus of Watergate inquiry into abuses surrounding unreported campaign money. According to an investigative memo uncovered in 1992 that quotes President Nixon's personal secretary Rosemary Woods, Andreas delivered $100,000 in $100 bills to the White House shortly before the 1972 election."
I've looked at love from both sides now.

Mr. Andreas' motivation was higher than just rent-seeking for ADM, The Washington Post noted in 1985 that "Andreas said he was raised in a religious tradition that called for 'tithing' 10 percent of personal income to the church. And, he adds, 'I consider politics to be just like the church.'"

A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that the cost to the taxpayer for each dollar of ADM's ethanol profit is down to $2.85. The current round of subsidies are set to expire in 2010.

Ethanol may be blessing or curse for farmers

There has been some insightful commentary and forthright research coming out of ethanol country. This article from the Minneapolis StarTribune contains a quote from the Minnesota Commissioner of Agriculture: "If I were to give a personal prediction for the next year or two, I would suggest that the economic opportunity for an ethanol producer doesn't look that great," referring to new facilities, not those already bought and paid for.
Investors may want to take note.

Corn Can't Solve Our Problem

Two self-referential (some would say self-reverential) points from last Friday's post on biofuels.

We have a meme! The above title is the headline for this WaPo story from Sunday's early edition.

Secondly, Sen. Cameron's definition of an honest politician seems relevant to this classic bit of rent-seeking between ADM and the Canadian government.

The money quote, "Our concern is when you start making comments about clawing back and putting rate caps of returns on industries that it may retard or may even discourage the kind of vibrant industry that we all seek," completely spins the fact that the proposal is to clawback Canadian government largess from ethanol producers achieving a level of profitability, not what the maximum RoR will be.

Usually, if a John threatens a whore for reneging on an agreed upon service it's chargeable, here it's corporate communications.

Brush anode and tubular cathode scale up microbial fuel cells

How's this for cool?
From StateCollege.com:

http://www.statecollege.com/news/local/article.php?cat=6&id=12366

The Ethanol Backlash

From the Wall Street Journal:
http://blogs.wsj.com/energy/2007/03/23/in-todays-journal-the-ethanol-backlash/
HT: WSJ Energy Roundup

I think we've got us a meme here.
For your weekend reading pleasure I had decided last night to offer a 103 page PDF from the Global Subsidies Initiative of the International Institute for Sustainable Development entitled Biofuels-At What Cost.

Dated October 2006, this is a real eye-opener. First, the interplay of mandates, tariffs, direct subsidies and cost shifting make for a very opaque market, which is how many of the players prefer it.

Second, even by oil industry standards where energy is measured in Quads and revenues in B's and T's the numbers are large. $5.5 to $7.3B in 2006 ($1.o5-$1.38/gallon) and rising. Throw in another $10B for increased food and feed costs and we're talking real money.

Finally for investors in rent-seeking organizations there is the real risk that the politicians will change the rules. Heed the words of Sen. Simon Cameron (R&D!-Pa.): "The honest politician is one who when he is bought, will stay bought."

Seriously, at a minimum, Ch. 5 is worth a look.

HT: Econbrowser

Sustainable Fuel for the Transportation Sector

There is a paper in the March 20 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences with the above title. In it the authors present a new method (patent pending) of producing fuel for vehicles. In addition to discussion of their system they give a quick overview of just how challenging it is going to be to make any meaningful reductions in oil consumption by using corn as the feedstock for ethanol or soybeans for biodiesel.

Some factoids: Diverting the entire U.S. corn crop to ethanol production replaces 12% of current gasoline consumption. What's that got to do with the price of tortillas in Mexico?
Just under 20% of the entire U.S. landmass is under cultivation. To run our planes, trains and automobiles (and trucks) using biomass would require harvesting an area equal to 58% of the whole country at current rates of production, which can't happen because the most productive land is already being farmed, so figure 75-80% of the whole country being farmed just to supply our energy needs. With no land devoted to food crops the obesity epidemic takes care of itself.

Biofuels - facts and fiction

From the Ecologist:

http://theecologist.org/archive_detail.asp?content_id=755

Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels

From the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science:

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/103/30/11206

Before you buy a share of a corn based ethanol production facility you should read this six page paper. And from BusinessWeek: "Ethanol's Growing List of Enemies"

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/mar2007/db20070316_016207.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5

General Atomics Scores Power Production First

A magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) generator was operated to produce electrical power using the exhaust stream from a prototype hypersonic scramjet combustor simulating flight at Mach 8 conditions.

From Space Travel:

http://www.space-travel.com/reports/General_Atomics_Scores_Power_Production_First_999.html

Green Energy Enthusiasts Are Also Betting on Fossil Fuels

From the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/16/technology/16venture.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

As the World Warms

From The Atlantic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200703u/global-warming

HT: Infectious Greed

Lunar platinum and alcohol fuel cells

From The Space Review:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/555/1

HT VentureBeat

CO2e and Cantor Environmental Brokerage Join Forces as CantorCO2e

From CNW Telbec:

http://www.cnw.ca/fr/releases/archive/March2007/13/c9769.html

InterContinental Exchange Makes Offer to Purchase CBOT Holdings

From Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aib1NxKXujPU

Applied Materials Commits to Leading U.S. Solar Power Generation Capability

From Semiconductor International:

http://www.reed-electronics.com/semiconductor/articleXml/LN584144189.html

HT: VentureBeat

Big-Name U.S. Investors Back Brazilian Ethanol Start-Up

In today's Wall Street Journal:

http://users2.wsj.com/lmda/do/checkLogin?mg=wsj-users2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB117392532550637732.html

HT: WSJ Energy Roundup

The Forex guy down the hall stole your Journal? Here's some backround from Cattle Network:

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=113691

Carbon traders dip toe in post-2012 market

From Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUSL1371325520070313

See below. This is one inefficient market.

Traders left guessing at future carbon prices

From Reuters:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L15724136.htm

MIT provides blueprint for future use of coal

From PhysOrg:

http://www.physorg.com/news93106592.html

Climate Change to Cost Germany €800 Billion

From Der Spiegel:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,471762,00.html

HT: Junkscience

Nypa for ethanol production: N’Delta in the limelight

From the Tide (Nigeria):

http://www.thetidenews.com/article.aspx?qrDate=03/14/2007&qrTitle=Nypa%20for%20ethanol%20production:%20N%E2%80%99Delta%20in%20the%20limelight%20(I)&qrColumn=ISSUES

What Every Tech Pro Should Know About 'Green Computing'

From InformationWeek:

http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=197801530

Off- Topic: Universal statistical properties of poker tournaments

From the ArXiv:

We present a simple model of Texas hold'em poker tournaments which contains the two main aspects of the game: i. the minimal bet is the blind, which grows exponentially with time; ii. players have a finite probability to go ``all-in'', hence betting all their chips. The distribution of the number of chips of players not yet eliminated (measured in units of its average) is found to be independent of time during most of the tournament, and reproduces accurately Internet poker tournaments data. This model makes the connection between poker tournaments and the persistence problem widely studied in physics, as well as some recent physical models of biological evolution or competing agents, and extreme value statistics which arises in many physical contexts

Four page PDF http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0703/0703122.pdf

Start-Up Fervor Shifts to Energy in Silicon Valley

From the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/14/technology/14valley.html?ex=1331524800&en=bf342c7462aaf06d&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Israeli firm turns seaweed into green fuel by new technology

From The Hindu:

http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/008200703150311.htm

Biodiesel firm seeks more cash from bankers

From The Guardian:

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2033127,00.html

HT: WSJ Energy Roundup

Ethanol Liberation Movement

From the Wall Street Journal:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117383869924436369.html

M'bishi Heavy Gets $4-5 Bln TXU Reactor Deal-Source

From Reuters:

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=basicIndustries&storyID=2007-03-14T050720Z_01_T280529_RTRIDST_0_SP_PAGE_023-T280529-OISBI.XML

HT: Junkscience

Canada emissions trade seen worth C$12 bln: CIBC

From Reuters (Can.):

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2007-03-13T164555Z_01_N13292270_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-EMISSIONS-FORECAST-COL.XML&archived=False

Carbon Disclosure Project

Canada 2006:

70 paqge PDF: http://www.cdproject.net/download.asp?file=CDP4_Canada_Report.pdf

New Approach Needed to Pump Up Carbon Offset Sales, Says Study

From PR Newswire:

http://www.pr-inside.com/new-approach-needed-to-pump-up-r64403.htm

China to build airports...

China reportedly plans to invest 52 billion yuan (6.7 billion dollars) in building 37 new airports...
From Agence France Presse:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-03/11/content_824647.htm

The Business of Climate Change

From Lehman Brothers:

145 page PDF
http://www.cs.bc.edu/~muller/teaching/cs021/lib/ClimateChange.pdf

It's Not Easy Going Green...

From Knowledge@Wharton:

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/createpdf.cfm?articleid=1653&CFID=4481056&CFTOKEN=23694300

Wal-Mart Announces Goal to Sell Sustainable Electronics; Retailer to Score Electronics Suppliers on the Sustainability of Their Products

From PRN-First Call:

http://sev.prnewswire.com/retail/20070312/DAM02212032007-1.html

HT: Treehugger

Corrected-Coke concerned about corn syrup prices

From Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/Food07/idUSN1236002120070312

Is Global Warming a Hot New Litigation Frontier?

From the New Jersey Law Journal:

http://www.law.com/jsp/law/LawArticleFriendly.jsp?id=1173625811180

HT: Junkscience

Cross-posted at Climateer Economics

When Corporate Interests Conflict on Global Warming

From The Big Picture:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/03/when_corporate_.html

Then & Now: Physical Effects of One Year of Day Trading

From uglychart:

http://www.uglychart.com/2007/03/12/then-now-physical-effects-of-one-year-of-day-trading/

Climatic Consequences

Investment Implications of a Changing Climate

From Citigroup:

120 page PDF http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/CIR%20--%20Climatic%20consequences%20Jan.%202007.pdf

The World Welcomes CTC!

From the Carbon Tax Center:

http://www.carbontax.org/blogarchives/2007/01/23/the-world-welcomes-ctc/

CTC Home:
http://www.carbontax.org/blog/

Only a carbon tax can stop global warming

From the Salt Lake Tribune:

http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/ci_5408525

Collezione shuts down facilities due to global warming

“Due to the global warming the knitwear does not sell as much,”

From the Turkish Daily News:

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=68047

Al Gore's Carbon Solution Won't Stop Climate Change

From AlterNet:

http://www.alternet.org/envirohealth/49025/

Pigovian Taxes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigovian_tax

Cross-posted at: Climateer Economics

Gore and Blood

Generation Investment Management LLP at The Skoll World Forum

Video: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1641773930133903355&q=al+gore

Bio's: http://www.generationim.com/media/pdf-generation-bios.pdf

The Economist (blog) on Carbon Offsets

A tale of two markets
From The Economist:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2007/03/a_tale_of_two_markets.cfm

Follow-up:
Another stab at carbon offsets

HT: Arnold Kling

Lula blames rich for global warming-2/7/07

From Al Jazeera:

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FF698155-6E45-4EEF-8B64-8B8D7BBEA064.htm

Forging an OPEC of Ethanol

From the WSJ.com Energy Roundup:

http://blogs.wsj.com/energy/2007/03/09/forging-an-opec-of-ethanol/

Biofuels Boom Raises Tough Questions

From the Casper StarTribune:

http://www.casperstartribune.net/articles/2007/03/10/ap/science/d8npf0f00.txt

Kerry Announces Hearing on Proposed $32 Billion TXU-KKR Deal

From John Kerry's website:

http://www.johnkerry.com/news/releases/release.html?id=84

John Kerry on Coal:

http://blog.johnkerry.com/2007/02/jk_climate_change_and_coalfire.html

and outlawing proposed coal-fired power plants:

Kerry to Propose Bill to Halt Texas Coal Power Plant Construction

John Doerr's Tears

From Wired News:

http://blog.wired.com/business/2007/03/being_very_very.html

HT: Infectious Greed

LS9 and Gevo latest biofuel companies, backed by Khosla Ventures

From VentureBeat:

http://www.venturebeat.com/wire/2007/03/09/ls9-and-gevo-latest-biofuel-companies-backed-by-khosla-ventures/

...Study by Swiss Re: below-average catastrophe losses in 2006

From Swiss Re:


Four page PDF http://www.swissre.com/INTERNET/pwsfilpr.nsf/vwFilebyIDKEYLu/BMER-6Z4ATJ/$FILE/NewsRelease%2008_March_07.pdf

'Inconvenient Truth' coming to a Gammage near you

Gore will be paid $100,000 plus expenses for the event
From the ASU Web Devil:

http://www.asuwebdevil.com/issues/2007/03/07/news/700184

HT: Junkscience

Dingell/Boucher Solicit Recommendations On Climate Change in Preparation of Upcoming Legislation

Letter to energy industry groups
From the House Committee on Energy and Commerce:

http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_110/110-02.27%20Letter.Industry.pdf

New Weapon Against Warming: "Flatulence Cards" Offset Dog, Human Emissions

For 35 Australian dollars (about 27 U.S. dollars), customers of Sydney-based Easy Being Green can offset a year's worth of carbon emissions linked to their dogs.

From National Geographic:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/03/070306-warming-credits.html

Throwing Dollars at the Sun

From the WSJ Energy Roundup:

http://blogs.wsj.com/energy/2007/03/08/throwing-dollars-at-the-sun/

Biofuels: An advisable strategy?

From the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona:

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-03/uadb-baa030707.php

HT: Junkscience

Green energy deals 'mislead customers'

From The Independent:

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/lifestyle/article2338374.ece

HT: Junkscience

Professor Martin L. Weitzman on the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change

Warning: This one is for the pro's.

If you understand "It may well turn out that the option value of waiting for better information about catastrophic tail events is negligible because early detection is impossible..." this is a valuable paper. If not, a better use of time may be to release a small amount of sequestered CO2 and create a biochemical-electrical field i.e. crack a beer and think about other things.

By Professor Weitzman:

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/Weitzman/papers/JELSternReport.pdf

Dr. Weitzman's C.V. http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/weitzman_cv.pdf

Cross-posted at Climateer Economics

Idaho Man Sentenced for Stealing Funds Invested in Bogus Fuel Technology Venture

From the New Jersey Attorney General:

http://www.nj.gov/oag/newsreleases06/pr20061109d.html

KGS Announces First Filing of Shareholders Securities Fraud Class Action Against Xethanol Corporation

From LawCash:

http://www.lawcash.com/attorney/4939/xethanol-lawsuit.asp

Two area ethanol firms hit hard by alleged scam

From the Kansas City Star:

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/16805614.htm

Vermont a state where growth is driven by green businesses

From the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/07/business/businessspecial2/07vermont.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

HT: Grist

Venture Capitalists Want to Put Some Algae in Your Tank

From the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/07/business/07algae.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

HT: WSJ Energy Roundup

Alberta wants $1.5B pipeline to capture C02

From the CBC:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2007/03/06/carbon-plan.html

Cap and Charade

More on Global Warming and Rent Seeking Behavior
From the WSJ.com OpinionJournal:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/weekend/hottopic/?id=110009740

Global Clean Energy Markets Expand to $55 Billion in 2006 and Projected to Exceed $220 Billion by 2016

From Clean Edge:

http://www.cleanedge.com/story.php?nID=4595

summary:
http://www.cleanedge.com/reports-trends2007.php

Battle of the bulbs

From the Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/sciencetech/article/188155

HT: Junkscience

LEHMAN BROTHERS CREATES NEW CLIMATE CHANGE POST

Theodore Roosevelt IV Appointed Chairman of Initiative

From Lehman Brothers:

http://www.lehman.com/press/pdf_2007/022807_climate_change_council.pdf

JPMorgan Environmental Index - Carbon Beta

From J.P. Morgan:

http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/jpmorgan/investbk/solutions/research/jeni

Business puts new energy into energy policy

From American Public Media:

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2007/03/05/PM200703054.html

and from the Wall Street Journal:

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117305761171826509-A0dplhL0wTBe3JkE7qhsgcc7qpk_20070404.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top

Obama, Biden Sponsor Bill With Tax Breaks for Auto Fuel Gains

From Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aeYroNJUWR3U&refer=us

Will green tech become the valley's new bubble?

From the San Jose Mercury News:

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/columnists/16808903.htm

US Coal-Fired Power Plant Plans up in Smoke?

From PlanetArk:

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/40670/story.htm

HT: Junkscience

Bio-fuel Investments

From NJBiz.com:

http://www.njbiz.com/view_release.asp?aID=1752

Brazil-US: Biofuels to Top Lula/Bush Summit Agenda

From Brazzil Magazine:

http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/7981/54/

Kyoto "cap and trade": A very 21st-century Ponzi scheme?

From the Western Standard:

http://westernstandard.blogs.com/shotgun/2007/02/kyoto_cap_and_t.html

HT: Junkscience

Industry lines up to cash in on carbon-trading deals

From the Kiev Post:

http://www.kyivpost.com/business/general/26202/

Peak Platinum, Perhaps?

From Resource Investor:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=29380

“As an investment play, global warming is a bubble and a social short-term craze

From FT.com, Alphaville:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/02/26/2766/as-an-investment-play-global-warming-is-a-bubble-and-a-social-short-term-craze/

Coleman, King Steer Top Commodity Fund on Grains (Update2)

From Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aBi0AUfD_ALQ&refer=asia